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MNI Employment Insight, Jul'23: Hotter Wages Partly Offset Rare Payrolls Miss

Markets

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The opposite of last month’s report, nonfarm payrolls growth saw its first miss in fifteen months in June and was coupled with a return of downward revisions.
  • However, both AHE growth and hours worked were stronger than expected, plus the unemployment rate was on the low side of expectations albeit partly offset by the U6 underemployment rate rising on a strong increase in those working part-time for economic reasons.
  • The market continued to almost fully price a 25bp hike for the July 26 FOMC decision and continues to entertain odds of one further hike beyond that. Analysts agree on July pricing but appear less convinced beyond that, unsurprisingly under heightened data dependency. CPI on Wednesday now swings into focus.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

USEmploymentReportJul2023.pdf


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