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Free AccessMNI: Euro Area GDP Growth Slows Sharply As Expected
--EMU Prelim Flash Q1 GDP Growth +0.4% q/q vs +0.7% q/q
By Jamie Satchithanantham
LONDON (MNI) - Economic activity in the euro area moderated in the first
quarter of 2018 in line with market expectations, according to a preliminary
flash estimate published by Eurostat Wednesday.
--FIRST DECLINE IN GROWTH IN TWO YEARS
Seasonally adjusted GDP grew by 0.4% in the euro area (EU19) versus the
previous quarter, correctly predicted by analysts, following growth of 0.7% q/q
in the fourth quarter of 2017. This was the first decline in q/q euro area
growth since Q2 2016.
Over the same quarter a year ago, GDP rose by 2.5% in Q1, down from 2.8% in
Q4, the first fall in year-over-year quarterly GDP growth since Q1 2016.
At this early stage, gauging whether the slowdown was influenced more by
temporary phenomena or more underlying issues will only become clearer with
later editions of the data.
--ANALYSTS' CORRECT CALL
Analysts, who have a tendency to under-estimate Q1 growth, correctly
predicted the result for only the second time since 2006.
IMF BOOSTS EU19 GROWTH FORECASTS
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) boosted its euro area
growth path on the back of "stronger than expected domestic demand...,supportive
monetary policy, and improved external demand prospects".
The IMF growth forecast was revised up by 0.5pp to 2.4% in 2018 and 0.3pp
to 2.0% in 2019 in its April World Economic Outlook report, versus its forecasts
made in October.
--LABOUR MARKET REMAINS TIGHT
Elsewhere, data also published by Eurostat Wednesday revealed the continual
theme of euro area labour market tightness. The unemployment rate in the euro
area was confirmed at 8.5% in March, unchanged from February, the lowest rate
since December 2008.
Over the entire EU28 area the jobless rate was 7.1%, also stable compared
to a month prior, the lowest since September 2008.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: M$E$$$,M$X$$$,MT$$$$,M$XDS$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.