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Triangle Breakout


Gilt/Bund test that 2019 peak


Extending losses

BONDS: MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Short OATs
- With core/semi-core EGB futures reaching new highs over the past two weeks
since our last update, the most notable changes in positioning have been at the
short end of the German curve (going long), contrasted by a flip to structural
shorts in France and a move from long to flat in Gilts.
- GERMANY: Both ends of the German curve have gone structurally long, the first
time Schatz and Buxl positioning has been simultaneously long in 2019.
Meanwhile, structural positioning in Bobl and Bunds remains flat. Notably, all
German futures contracts saw longs set last week.
- OAT: Positioning has gone structurally short (the shortest among EGBs at this
point, in fact), versus longs seen for most of 2019.
- GILT: The structural longs enjoyed for 1-2 weeks did not last; positioning has
gone back to flat, which was previously the case for the 6 preceding weeks.
- BTP: Positioning remains flat for our second consecutive update, after net
longs were posted for most of the previous 5 months.
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