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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): BTP, Bund, Buxl Longs

Europe bond futures traders took a more circumspect view on price direction last week, with longs reduced and shorts set for most contracts.

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Structural positioning in European futures was mixed at the end of last week, with BTP and German Bund and Buxl standing out for their structural longs. Futures traders took a more circumspect view on price direction last week, with longs reduced and shorts set for most contracts. This compares to our update two weeks ago which saw long-setting across the board.

FULL PDF ANALYSIS:

MNIPi16Aug2021.pdf


  • Germany: The theme of flat/short positioning in the German short-end/belly vs long positioning further down the curve has developed in August. Schatz positioning remains flat (same as the past few months), with Bobl moving into short territory vs modest longs in late June. Conversely, Bund positioning has has remained at longs for the best part of two months, and Buxl remains at "very long" levels. Schatz and Buxl saw longs reduced last week, with Bobl shorts set and Bund longs set.
  • OAT: Positioning is flat, having pulled back from long structural positioning in July. Shorts were set last week.
  • Gilt: Positioning has hovered between short and flat for most of 2021, and this has continued in the past fortnight (currently flat). Shorts were set last week.
  • BTP: Structural positioning remains very long, as has been the case since late June. Though longs were reduced last week.