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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Flat Outside Of Germany

European bond futures structural positioning is largely flat outside Germany.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Shifts in European bond futures structural positioning have been subtle since our last update on April 8, with "flat" the most common indicator.
  • Indeed this is the first update of 2024 in which all ex-German contracts are in "flat" positioning.
  • Last week's trade saw longs reduced in 6 of 7 contracts.

Full PDF Analysis:

mnipi22Apr2024.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz structural positioning is the biggest mover since our last update, shifting to long from flat previously (it had previously been "long" briefly in late February). Elsewhere in Germany, contracts have maintained the same structural positioning over the past 2 weeks: Bobl remains at flat, Bund at very short, and Buxl at short. Last week's trade saw longs reduced in each contract except Buxl (shorts set).
  • OAT: OAT remains in flat structural positioning, the same for the past 2+ quarters. Trade last week was indicative of long reduction.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning has subsided to flat, after previously spending around 6 weeks at "long". Last week's trade saw further long reduction.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning remains volatile and has moved back to flat after short in our last update, and long prior to that. Long reduction was seen last week.


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Shifts in European bond futures structural positioning have been subtle since our last update on April 8, with "flat" the most common indicator.
  • Indeed this is the first update of 2024 in which all ex-German contracts are in "flat" positioning.
  • Last week's trade saw longs reduced in 6 of 7 contracts.

Full PDF Analysis:

mnipi22Apr2024.pdf

  • GERMANY: Schatz structural positioning is the biggest mover since our last update, shifting to long from flat previously (it had previously been "long" briefly in late February). Elsewhere in Germany, contracts have maintained the same structural positioning over the past 2 weeks: Bobl remains at flat, Bund at very short, and Buxl at short. Last week's trade saw longs reduced in each contract except Buxl (shorts set).
  • OAT: OAT remains in flat structural positioning, the same for the past 2+ quarters. Trade last week was indicative of long reduction.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning has subsided to flat, after previously spending around 6 weeks at "long". Last week's trade saw further long reduction.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning remains volatile and has moved back to flat after short in our last update, and long prior to that. Long reduction was seen last week.