May 07, 2024 12:40 GMT
MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Leaning Shorter
European bond futures structural positioning has tilted a little more toward the short side since our last update.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- European bond futures structural positioning has tilted a little more toward the short side since our last update on April 22.
- Once again, there are no contracts in "long" or "very long" positioning, with shorts extending in Germany and introduced in France.
- This comes despite the most recent week's trade seeing movement consistent with short cover / long-setting.
Full PDF Analysis:
- GERMANY: Schatz structural positioning has switched back to flat, after having moved to long in our last biweekly update (it had previously been "long" briefly in late February). The other move of note and in a similar direction is Buxl which is now in very short territory, versus short previously, joining Bund. Bobl is unchanged at flat, having seen some long-setting last week. The other three contracts saw trade indicative of short cover last week.
- OAT: OAT is now in short structural positioning, marking the exit from "flat" that had prevailed for most of the previous 6 months. Trade last week was indicative of long setting, though.
- GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains flat, consolidating after much of Feb-Mar spent at "long". Last week's trade was indicative of short cover.
- BTP: BTP structural positioning has been a little less volatile than usual since early April, remaining flat since our last update. Some short covering was seen last week.
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