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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Long Bunds Into ECB

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Long Bunds Into ECB

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Going into the ECB meeting Thursday, positioning in the German curve remains short in the front end since our last update.
  • But the longer-end is showing increasingly long positioning, alongside BTP and Gilt.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi20Jul2022.pdf

  • GERMANY: German futures are mixed: Schatz remains very short, with Bobl edging to merely short (had previously been ""very short""). Both saw fresh shorts set in the week to Jul 19. But further down the curve, Buxl has shifted to flat from short (with short covering in the past week), and Bund is the only long in MNI Pi (had been flat - though longs were reduced in the past week).
  • OAT: Positioning has edged up back to flat after being in short territory in our last update. Short covering was seen last week.
  • GILT: Structural positioning has slipped back into short territory; it had previously been flat. Longs were reduced last week.
  • BTP: Structural positioning remains flat for our 3rd consecutive update, contrasting with shorts in the 1st half of 2022. Some longs reduction was seen last week.

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