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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Long In August

There's been an increasing amount of directional optimism across European bondfutures - or at least, less pessimism: from 3 shorts, 3 flats and 1 "very long" (BTP) in late July, we now see no structural shorts and 4 out of 7 contracts in long territory.

  • GERMANY: A surge in Schatz open interest has been the most interesting development in the past few weeks (+10% since Jul 20, vs +2-3% for other German contracts), which has coincided with a structural move from flat to long. Bobl has flipped from short to long, while Bund and Buxl have moved to flat from "very short". Last week saw shorts set, apart from Bobl (longs reduced).
  • OAT: Positioning remains flat, with longs reduced last week.
  • GILT: Positioning has shifted to long vs flat in our last update - indeed longest since early June (despite fresh shorts being set last week).
  • BTP: Positioning has come back from very long levels to merely long, with the increase in OI (+9%) similar to that of Schatz.

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