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MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): More Longs, More Shorts

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): More Longs, More Shorts

MNI Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): More Longs, More Shorts

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • Structural positioning in European bond futures has shifted only slightly since our last update in early February.
  • There is an increasing bifurcation: two weeks ago there were one long and two shorts with the remainder of contracts flat, whereas now there are two longs and three shorts.
  • Last week's trade saw primarily short setting.

Full PDF Analysis:

MNIPi19Feb2024.pdf

  • GERMANY: There is more decisive structural positioning in German contracts now vs in early February, when 3 of 4 contracts were flat. Schatz has moved into long positioning with Bobl moving to short, whereas both were flat previously. Bund remains short while Buxl remains flat. Last week saw shorts set in 3 of 4 contracts, with Buxl the exception (short cover).
  • OAT: OAT remains in flat structural positioning, where it has been for most of the past half-year. Trade last week was indicative of short setting.
  • GILT: Gilt structural positioning remains short, maintaining the reversal seen this year in contrast to long positioning in late 2023. Longs were reduced last week.
  • BTP: BTP structural positioning remains in long territory, where it has been since early February - and last week's trade was indicative of further longs being set.




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