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Europe Pi (Positioning Indicator): Short Setting Leaves OATs Alone (Nick Test)

MNI (London)

Lots of short setting last week, which was noteworthy for post-March highs in European equities being set ahead of EU talks on the COVID recovery fund (also a non-event ECB meeting). At this point, only one contract (OAT) retains long structural positioning, vs three contracts a fortnight ago.

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  • GERMANY: Structural Schatz positioning has moved from long to flat in the last two weeks. Apart from that, no changes for German futures, though we note continued short setting in Bund and Buxl (already very short), with Bobl positioning also short.
  • OAT: Positioning has fallen back to flat, vs long for most of the 2nd half of June. Shorts were set last week.
  • GILT: Positioning has turned slightly more positive, to flat vs short in our last update (this despite fresh shorts being set last week).
  • BTP: Positioning continues to impress to the long side, with 'very long' structural positioning since mid-July (easily longest among European futures).

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