MNI CHINA LIQUIDITY INDEX: CONDITIONS TIGHTEN IN JUNE

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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - Tuesday's data calendar gets underway at 0715GMT, with the
release of the Spanish July final Manufacturing PMI data. The Italian data
follows at 0745GMT, the French data at 0750GMT, German data at 0755GMT and the
Eurozone data at 0800GMT.
     In between the PMI releases, the German unemployment data is published,
followed by the VDMA German machine orders data at 0800GMT.
     The UK Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI data will be released at 0830GMT.
     The main EMU data comes at 0900GMT, with the publication of the preliminary
flash Q2 GDP data.
     Across the Atlantic, the US Personal Income and Consumption data will be
published at 1230GMT.
     Personal income is expected to post a 0.4% decrease in June, as payrolls
rose by 222,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5 hours, and rose by 0.2%.
Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise by only 0.1%, as retail sales fell 0.2%
in the month and were still down 0.2% excluding a 0.1% rise in motor vehicle
sales. Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were down 0.1% in the month, while sales
excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services fell 0.1%, indicating
underlying weakness. The core PCE price index is expected to post a 0.1%
increase in June, keeping the y/y measure well below 2%. Annual revisions will
be included with the data.
     The latest Redbook Retail Sales Index will be published at 1255GMT.
     The Markit final July Manufacturing Index will be published at 1345GMT.
     At 1400GMT, the ISM Manufacturing Index and the latest construction
spending data will be released.
     The ISM manufacturing index is expected to slip back to a reading of 56.9
in July after a solid gain to 57.8 in July. Regional conditions data have been
mixed, with the Empire, Kansas City and Philadelphia Fed readings declining, but
the Richmond Fed index up. The flash reading for the July Markit manufacturing
survey was up from June.
     Construction spending is expected to rise 0.4% in June. Housing starts
surged 8.3% in the month after three straight declines, suggesting private
residential building could rebound after dip in May.
     The Dallas Fed Services Survey will cross the wires at 1430GMT
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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