MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - There is a full data calendar on both sides of the Atlantic

Thursday, but the start of the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium

could garner most of the afternoon headlines.

     The European data calendar kicks off at 0645GMT, with the release of the

French manufacturing and services sentiment indicator, alongside the Business

Climate Indicator.

     At 0700GMT the Spanish Q2 GDP data will be released.

     The main UK data is published at 0830GMT, when the 2nd read of the UK Q2

GDP data is published, along with the latest Index of Services.

     UK growth is seen being confirmed as coming in modestly higher, with nine

of the ten analysts polled by MNI expecting the second estimate of second

quarter GDP to come in unchanged at 0.3% q/q.

     Despite revisions to the June industrial production (revised up from +0.1%

m/m to +0.5% m/m) and construction (revised down from +1.8% to -0.1% m/m), the

data published since the initial GDP estimate was published last month, these

are not seen to be significant enough to change the headline figures.

     The July UK Finance (formerly BBA) mortgage lending data will cross the

wire at the same time.

     At 1000GMT, the CBI's August Distributive Trades data will cross the wires.

     Expectations of minimal sales were exceeded in July, coming in above

'seasonal norms' according to the CBI. The volume of reported sales rose to +22

in July, above the +3 expected value set in June and a three-month high, rising

10 points for the second month in a row.

     The main drivers of growth were found within the grocery and clothing

sectors while household goods, specialist food and drink, and other normal goods

receded on the month, according to the CBI.

     Expected volumes for August were set at +20 last month, indicating

retailers did not anticipate a marked drop-off in consumer activity as we

approach the end of summer.

     The MNI median of analysts' forecasts, shown below, at +16 is slightly less

optimistic. The range of the forecasts spans from +5.0, from Capital Economics

who see a significant slowdown in activity, to +18.0 (Standard Chartered).

     Across the Atlantic, the US calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with the release

of the latest Jobless Claims numbers.

     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 3,000 to 235,000

in the August 19 week after a 12,000 decline in the previous week. The four-week

moving average, which has declines for three straight weeks, would fall by 2,500

in the coming week as the 245,000 level in the July 22 week drops out of the

drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and there are

no revisions.

     The Canadian Quarterly financial statistics for enterprises will be

released at the same time.

     Back on the Continent, the BNB Business Sentiment index will be released at

1400GMT.

     US data expected at 1400GMT includes the latest Building permits revisions

and the NAR existing home sales numbers.

     The pace of existing home sales is expected to rise to a 5.55 million

annual rate in July after falling by 1.8% in June. Sales were up 3.3% from a

year earlier before seasonal adjustment. Pending home sales rose 1.5% in June,

suggesting existing home sales could see a rebound in July. Supply fell 0.5% in

June and was down 7.1% from a year earlier, an indication of that supply

shortage continues.

     The latest Natural Gas Stocks data is expected at 1430GMT, ahead of the

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 1500GMT.

     The latest Fed weekly M2 Money Supply Data will be released at 2030GMT.

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com