Free Trial

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - Kicking off the economic docket on Thursday is Swiss Retail
Sales at 0815MT.
     It is PMI day, first up is final Spanish Markit Manufacturing PMI at
     At 0845GMT final Italian Markit Manufacturing PMI is up, followed swiftly
by final French Markit Manufacturing PMI at 0850GMT.
     German Unemployment data will hit the wires at 0855GMT, at the same time as
final German Markit Manufacturing PMI.
     At 0900GMT German VDMA Machine Orders will be published.
     UK Markit/CIPS Construction PMI is on the schedule for 0930GMT.
     Across the Atlantic the first US release of the day is Challenger Monthly
Layoff Intentions at 1130GMT.
     Back in the UK it is 'Super Thursday' for the Bank of England. Interest
Rates, Minutes and the Quarterly Inflation Report will all be released at
     The Bank is expected to hike for the first time since July 2007. Of the 10
analysts surveyed by MNI 9 predict a 25bp hike to 0.50%.
     The minutes of the September meeting noted that "a majority" of MPC members
thought that in the "coming months" withdrawal of some stimulus would be
appropriate. Since then we have heard from a variety of MPC members including
Governor Carney, Vlieghe and Tenreyro who agreed with this assessment.
     One notable exception was new Deputy Governor David Ramsden who said he was
not in that majority, and stated there are others who are doubtful that tighter
policy is needed right now.
     As such, it seems that while a hike is currently around 87% priced in
according to MNI PINCH, the vote will not be unanimous. The central forecast is
for a 7-2 vote. The smaller the majority, the greater the doubts will be over
further tightening
     At 1230GMT Weekly US Jobless Claims are on the docket. The level of initial
jobless claims is expected to rise by 2,000 to 235,000 in the October 28 week
after a 10,000 increase in the previous week.
     The four-week moving average would fall by 5,750 in the coming week as the
258,000 level in the September 30 week, the last of the true hurricane-impacted
weeks, drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is correct and
there are no revisions.
     Also at 1230GMT are US Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity figures. Nonfarm
productivity is expected to rise 2.9% in the third quarter after a 1.5% gain in
the previous quarter, as output growth was close to steady, but hours worked
growth slowed.
     Unit labour costs are expected to rise by 0.6% following a modest 0.2% gain
in the second quarter.
     A busy time early in the US day Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is
to give introductory remarks at the Alternative Reference Rates Committee
Roundtable in New York at 1230GMT.
     US ISM-NY Manufacturing Index is on the schedule for 1345GMT, the Bloomberg
US Comfort Index is also released.
     At 1430GMT US Natural Gas Stocks will be released.
     New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley is to give closing
remarks at Alternative Reference Rates Committee Roundtable in New York at
     At 2030GMT comes the US Fed Weekly Money Supply Data.
     Rounding off the day at 2215GMT Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President
Raphael Bostic is to participate in "The Vital Role of Government Statistics"
panel at the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management's 39th Annual
Fall Research Conference in Chicago, with audience Q&A.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email:

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ (function appendPosts () { var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span'); policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts); = "block"; var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0]; var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span'); dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts); = "block"; })(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){ item.href="/core/users/email_login/"; item.innerHTML="Log In"; }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) { img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return false; }); }); document .querySelector(".site-logo img") .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return true; }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener(".areas-of-interests__options .signin-module", function (item) { item.addEventListener("click", function () { if(item.querySelector("input").checked){ item.classList.add("selected"); // item.querySelector("input").checked=false; } else { item.classList.remove("selected"); // item.querySelector("input").checked=true; } }) }) function initializeTooltip(){ document.addEventListener("mouseover", function (e) { if (".authentication--field-fi_market > i")) { document .querySelector("") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-fx_market > i")) { document .querySelector(".subscription-form-tooltip.fx-market") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-data > i")) { document .querySelector("") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-mni_research > i")) { document .querySelector(".subscription-form-tooltip.mni_research") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-policy > i")) { document .querySelector(".subscription-form-tooltip.policy") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-EM_market > i")) { document .querySelector(".subscription-form-tooltip.EM_market") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-calendar > i")) { document .querySelector(".subscription-form-tooltip.calendar") .classList.remove("hide"); } if (".authentication--field-commodities > i")) { document .querySelector(".subscription-form-tooltip.commodities") .classList.remove("hide"); } }); document .querySelectorAll(".areas-of-interests__options i") .forEach(function(btn){ btn.addEventListener("mouseleave", function (e) { let tooltips = document.querySelectorAll(".subscription-form-tooltip"); tooltips.forEach(function(tooltip){ tooltip.classList.add("hide"); }); }); }); } function createTooltip(item) { const tooltip = document.createElement('i'); tooltip.classList.add('tooltip'); item.appendChild(tooltip); } REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener(".areas-of-interests__options .authentication--label", function(item){ createTooltip(item); if(document.querySelectorAll(".areas-of-interests__options .authentication--label").length >=7 ){ initializeTooltip(); } }) REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)"); window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts"); });