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LONDON (MNI) - A busy calendar to end the week on Friday, though the
upcoming Christmas break is likely to keep volumes subdued.
First up on the docket is German GfK Consumer Confidence at 0700GMT.
Germany also release Import/Export Prices and Construction Orders at the same
time.
At 0745GMT several pieces of French data will hit the wires, final GDP,
Consumer Spending and PPI will all hit the wires.
Spain publish PPI figures at 0800GMT.
Also at 0800GMT is the release of the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer.
A slew of Italian data will be published at 0900GMT, Industrial Orders as
well as ISTAT Business and Consumer Confidence.
At 0930GMT is the UK third estimate of GDP which will also include the
Index of Services figures, UK Quarterly Current Account Balance will also be
published.
Third quarter GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, 1.5% y/y, but as
we approach the end of the year, data for Q3 is arguably of little relevance in
terms of painting the most up-to-date picture of the UK economy.
Absent any major revisions to the Q3 numbers, the Index of Services October
figures will garner more attention as they will provide the best indication of
how growth fared Oct-Dec.
Across the Atlantic the first releases of the day are US Durable Goods data
and Personal Income and Consumption figures at 1330GMT.
Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 2.3% in November after a
revised 0.8% decline in October. Boeing orders rose to 159 from 64 in October,
suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise sharply. Orders excluding
transportation are expected to post a more modest 0.6% gain after a 0.9% rise in
October.
Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in November, as payrolls
increased by 228,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5 hours, and hourly
earnings were up 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise 0.4%, as retail
sales surged by 0.8% in the month and were up 1.0% excluding a 0.2% decline in
motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were up 0.8% in the month,
as were sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services,
indicating underlying sales strength.
Also from the US at 1330GMT is Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index,
while Canada will release GDP by Industry.
At 1500GMT US New Home Sales data and Building Permits Revisions will hit
the wires along with the Final Michigan Sentiment Index. New home sales are
expected to slow to a 658,000 annual rate in November following sharp gains in
the previous two months. Unadjusted sales were up 19.6% from a year earlier
before seasonal adjustment. Home supply rose in October, though not enough to
keep up with sales growth, so the months supply dipped to 4.9 months. Even so,
there should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.
US BLS State Employment data is also on the schedule for 1500GMT.
At 1600GMT the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index will be published, and
St. Louis Fed will release their Real GDP Nowcast.
Following swiftly is the New York Fed GDP Nowcast at 1615GMT.
Rounding off the day ahead of the Christmas break for European, UK and US
markets is US preliminary Treasury Allotments at 2000GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.