MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - A busy calendar to end the week on Friday, though the

upcoming Christmas break is likely to keep volumes subdued.

     First up on the docket is German GfK Consumer Confidence at 0700GMT.

Germany also release Import/Export Prices and Construction Orders at the same

time.

     At 0745GMT several pieces of French data will hit the wires, final GDP,

Consumer Spending and PPI will all hit the wires.

     Spain publish PPI figures at 0800GMT.

     Also at 0800GMT is the release of the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer.

     A slew of Italian data will be published at 0900GMT, Industrial Orders as

well as ISTAT Business and Consumer Confidence.

     At 0930GMT is the UK third estimate of GDP which will also include the

Index of Services figures, UK Quarterly Current Account Balance will also be

published.

     Third quarter GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, 1.5% y/y, but as

we approach the end of the year, data for Q3 is arguably of little relevance in

terms of painting the most up-to-date picture of the UK economy.

     Absent any major revisions to the Q3 numbers, the Index of Services October

figures will garner more attention as they will provide the best indication of

how growth fared Oct-Dec.

     Across the Atlantic the first releases of the day are US Durable Goods data

and Personal Income and Consumption figures at 1330GMT.

     Durable goods orders are expected to rebound by 2.3% in November after a

revised 0.8% decline in October. Boeing orders rose to 159 from 64 in October,

suggesting nondefense aircraft orders could rise sharply. Orders excluding

transportation are expected to post a more modest 0.6% gain after a 0.9% rise in

October.

     Personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in November, as payrolls

increased by 228,000, average weekly hours rose to 34.5 hours, and hourly

earnings were up 0.2%. Current dollar PCE is forecast to rise 0.4%, as retail

sales surged by 0.8% in the month and were up 1.0% excluding a 0.2% decline in

motor vehicle sales. Core retail sales (also ex. gas) were up 0.8% in the month,

as were sales excluding autos, gas, building materials and food services,

indicating underlying sales strength.

     Also from the US at 1330GMT is Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index,

while Canada will release GDP by Industry.

     At 1500GMT US New Home Sales data and Building Permits Revisions will hit

the wires along with the Final Michigan Sentiment Index. New home sales are

expected to slow to a 658,000 annual rate in November following sharp gains in

the previous two months. Unadjusted sales were up 19.6% from a year earlier

before seasonal adjustment. Home supply rose in October, though not enough to

keep up with sales growth, so the months supply dipped to 4.9 months. Even so,

there should be adequate homes available for sale when demand returns.

     US BLS State Employment data is also on the schedule for 1500GMT.

     At 1600GMT the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index will be published, and

St. Louis Fed will release their Real GDP Nowcast.

     Following swiftly is the New York Fed GDP Nowcast at 1615GMT.

     Rounding off the day ahead of the Christmas break for European, UK and US

markets is US preliminary Treasury Allotments at 2000GMT.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com