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MNI European Morning Briefing

MNI (London)
     LONDON (MNI) - There are plenty of economic releases on the docket
Thursday, with the release of the final January manufacturing PMI numbers set to
dominate the session.
     The European calendar gets underway at 0700GMT, with the publication of the
UK Nationwide January House Price Index.
     The Swiss December retail sales data are expected at 0815GMT.
     The IHS/Markit January final manufacturing PMI releases start at 0815GMT,
when the Spanish numbers cross the wires, followed by the Italy data at 0845GMT,
France at 0850GMT, Germany at 0855GMT and the amalgamated EMU data at 0900GMT.
     The UK IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI will be published at 0930GMT.
     ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet will speak at a luncheon conference
of Cercle de Lorraine in Brussels, Belgium, starting at 1115GMT.
     The US calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with the release of the Challenger
Monthly Layoff Intentions data.
     Around 1300GMT, the January domestic vehicle sales data will be published.
     Domestic-made vehicle sales are expected to slow to a 13.2 million annual
rate in January after rising to a 13.6 million annual rate in December, with a
large snow storm trimming sales in the Northeast. Seasonal adjustment factors
will add sharply to unadjusted sales in January after subtracting modestly from
them in December.
     The latest US jobless claims release is expected at 1330GMT, alongside the
latest preliminary Non-Farm Productivity numbers.
     The level of initial jobless claims is expected to rise by 5,000 to 238,000
in the January 27 week after a 17,000 rebound in the previous week. The usual
January noise in the data should start to dissipate soon. The four-week moving
average would fall by 3,000 in the coming week, as the 250,000 level in the
December 30 week drops out of the calculation, assuming the MNI forecast is
correct and there are no revisions.
     Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise only 0.7% in the fourth quarter
after a 3.0% gain in the previous quarter, as growth in the output component
slowed and hours worked growth accelerated. Unit labor costs are expected to
rise by 1.0% after a 0.2% decline in the third quarter.
     At 1445GMT, the Markit US final January Manufacturing Index will be
released.
     The ISM Manufacturing Index will be published at 1500GMT, along with the
December construction spending report.
     The ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to a reading of 58.8 in
January after rising to 59.3 in December after annual revisions, but still
indicate strength. Regional conditions data have suggested a slowdown in growth,
but the flash Markit estimate ticked up slightly to 55.5 from 55.1 in the
previous month.
     Construction spending is expected to rise by 0.5% in December. Housing
starts fell sharply in the month, suggesting private residential building
slipped after a November gain.
     The US Natural Gas Stocks data for the current week will cross the wire at
1530GMT.
     Late US data will see the Fed publish the latest Weekly M2 Money Supply
Data at 2130GMT.
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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