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MNI European Morning Briefing

     LONDON (MNI) - A busier calendar on Wednesday with plenty of tier 1 data on
the docket.
     In Europe the first release comes at 0700GMT with the preliminary German
GDP at 0700GMT alongside preliminary German HICP figures.
     At 0800GMT ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann will deliver a speech
in Frankfurt at the Bundesbank Cash Symposium.
     The Riksbank will release their latest Policy Decision at 0830GMT.
     At 0900GMT the preliminary Italian GDP figures will be published.
     In the UK the BoE Agents' Business Survey will be released at 0930GMT.
     Several releases from the broader Eurozone at 1000GMT, preliminary GDP data
and Industrial Production data will both hit the wires.
     At 1020GMT ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch will give a speech in
Frankfurt at the Bundesbank Cash Symposium.
     Across the Atlantic the first release of the day is the MBA weekly
applications index at 1200GMT.
     In the UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face another round of weekly
questions in Parliament.
     At 1245GMT ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch makes his second
appearance of the day, this time Mersch will sit on a panel along with SNB's
Zurbruegg in Frankfurt at the Bundesbank Cash Symposium.
     Bundesbank Board Member Andreas Dombret will give a speech at 1300GMT.
     At 1330GMT the US release CPI figures and Retail Sales data.
     The CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in January following a 0.2% rise in
December after annual revisions. Analysts expect energy prices to rebound after
December's 0.2% decline, with gasoline prices leading the gain. AAA reported a
slight increase in mid-month prices from December to January. The core CPI is
forecast to rise 0.2% following a revised 0.2% increase in December.
     Retail sales are forecast to rise only 0.2% in January after a string of
solid gains. Seasonally adjusted industry motor vehicle sales slipped modestly
in January, while AAA reported that gasoline prices rebounded in mid-January
from one month earlier. Retail sales are expected to rise 0,5% excluding motor
vehicles after December's 0.4% gain, while the control group is also expected to
post a solid gain to start the first quarter.
     US Business Inventories are on the docket at 1500GMT. Business inventories
are expected to rise 0.3% in December. Factory inventories were already reported
as up 0.5% in the month, while wholesale inventories rose 0.4%. The advance
report showed a 0.2% gain for retail inventories. Taken together, an MNI
calculation looks for a 0.4% increase for business inventories, so the median
forecast suggests analysts see an upward revision to retail inventories. As for
sales, factory shipments were up 0.6%, wholesale sales rose 1.2% and the advance
estimate for retail trade sales was a 0.3% gain, suggesting a 0.7% gain for
business sales.
     Also at 1500GMT is the release of the Atlanta Fed Inflation Index.
     Rounding off the day at 1530GMT are the latest set of weekly DoE Crude
stocks.
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203 865 3809; email: kieran.williams@marketnews.com

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