MNI European Morning Commodities Technical Analysis

By Les Castell

     Click below for today's MNI European Commodities Technical Analysis report

- https://tinyurl.com/yadjset6

     ICE BRENT: (J18) Fresh Rise Sees Close Above $70.05 

*RES 4: $71.41 - 7 month bull channel top

*RES 3: $71.20 - 1.618 swing of $69.94-$67.90

*RES 2: $71.02 - Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $70.53 - Intraday high

*PRICE: $70.41 @ 0258GMT    

*SUP 1: $69.45/50 - Hourly support

*SUP 2: $69.11 - Jan 22 high, Jan 24 low

*SUP 3: $68.52/54 - Series hourly highs Jan 22

*SUP 4: $67.90 - Jan 19 low

*COMMENTARY: Found the strength to move through the previous 69.94 high on

Wednesday, as well as the 50% Fibo retrace level at $70.15. A high seen so far

of $70.53, as we eye a move towards $71.02-$71.20 next, ahead of the 7 month

bull channel top at $71.41. In the interim, nearest support moves up to

$69.50-$69.45, with the $69.11 area currently a more significant level below.

     ICE GASOIL: (G18) Breaks Above Previous $622.75 High

*RES 4: $669.25 - May 4 2015 high

*RES 3: $655.00 - Jun 8 2015 high

*RES 2: $637.80 - 6 month bull channel top

*RES 1: $635.75 - May 25 2015 low, now resistance

*PRICE: $626.50 @ 0318GMT     

*SUP 1: $622.75 - Jan 15 high, now support

*SUP 2: $618.45 - Hourly congestion Jan 23-24

*SUP 3: $615.50/55 - Jan 22 high, Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $611.00 - Jan 23 low

*COMMENTARY: A fresh rise on Wednesday took us through the Jan 15 high at

$622.75, a rally to $628.00 seen so far, as we head towards the 6 month bull

channel top at $637.80. There may be some resistance from around the May 25 2015

low at $635.75 along the way. Any higher than $637.80 and have to look towards

$655.00-$669.25 for next target area. Meanwhile, support comes initially from

above that $622.75 high, although $618.45-$615.50 of more importance below.

     NYMEX HO: (H18) $2.1000 Break Has $2.1230-$2.1405 Potential

*RES 4: $2.2105 - High Dec 2 2014

*RES 3: $2.1748 - Feb 1 2015 high

*RES 2: $2.1405 - 1.618 swing of $2.1000-$2.0344

*RES 1: $2.1230 - Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $2.1023 @ 0335GMT     

*SUP 1: $2.0825 - Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $2.0725 - Jan 17 high, hourly base Jan 23

*SUP 3: $2.0520 - Congestion area Jan 19-22

*SUP 4: $2.0344 - Jan 19 low

*COMMENTARY: Again moving higher, leaving $2.1000 in it's wake as we see a high

of $2.1080 so far. Next resistance to note comes from $2.1230, ahead of the

swing target of the recent $2.1000-$2.0344 fall, at $2.1405. As a consequence,

support rises to $2.0825, although the $2.0725-$2.0520 area presently provides a

stronger corrective base below.

     NYMEX RBOB: (H18) Immediate Focus On $1.9325-$1.9472

*RES 4: $1.9822 - Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: $1.9472 - 8 month Bull channel top

*RES 2: $1.9325 - 1.618 swing of $1.9145-$1.8854

*RES 1: $1.9275 - Hourly resistance

*PRICE: $1.9203 @ 0356GMT    

*SUP 1: $1.9092 - Hourly support Jan 23

*SUP 2: $1.8941 - Hourly base Jan 24

*SUP 3: $1.8854 - Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $1.8794/99 - Hourly highs Jan 19-22, now support

*COMMENTARY: Continues to rise, most latterly through the week's previous

$1.9145 high, leaving $1.9275 as initial resistance. Any higher and the swing

target of the recent $1.9145-$1.8854 fall, at $1.9325, then comes into play, as

we make our way up the 8 month Bull channel, which has a top of $1.9472.

Support, $1.902 and then more significantly $1.8941-$1.8854.

     NYMEX WTI: (H18) $66.66-$67.15 Next Potential Targets

*RES 4: $69.96 - 61.8% Fibo of $89.47-$38.40

*RES 3: $68.37 - Feb 2015 high

*RES 2: $67.15 - 6 week bull channel top

*RES 1: $66.66 - 1.618 swing of $57.97-$43.91

*PRICE: $66.29 @ 0414GMT

*SUP 1: $65.25 - Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $64.83 - Jan 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $64.32 - Congestion lows Jan 23-24

*SUP 4: $64.13 - Jan 22 high, now support

*COMMENTARY: Rally continues, lately eyeing a rise towards $66.66, the swing

target of the $57.97-$43.91 pullback, seen in the early part of last year. Above

and the 6 week bull channel top is at $67.15 today, as we make our way towards

the next Fibo retrace of note, the 61.8% at $69.96. Support initially from

$65.25, loss would disappoint near term and allow some correction of recent

gains from $62.78.

     GOLD TECHS: $1357.7 Break opens Way To $1367.3-$1380.3 Next

*RES 4: $1401.2 13 month bull channel top projection

*RES 3: $1380.3 38.2% Fibo of $1920.5-$1046.4

*RES 2: $1375.4 July 2016 high

*RES 1: $1367.3 Aug 1 high

*PRICE: $1364.0 @0443GMT

*SUP 1: $1349.0 Hourly support

*SUP 2: $1344.8 Jan 15 high, now support

*SUP 3: $1339.6 Jan 24 low

*SUP 4: $1333.2 Jan 18 high, now support

*COMMENTARY* The move above the 76.4% Fibo retrace level at $1284.5 gave the

upside the impetus it required. This makes the $1357.7-$1236.6 fall seen from

last September look like a three wave correction. The subsequent break through

$1337.1 the next upside boost, as we make our way back through the Sep 4 high at

$1357.7. This sees $1367.3-$1375.4 as next resistance ahead of the 38.2% Fibo at

$1380.3. Support rising too, $1349.0-$1344.8 now the nearest of note.

     SILVER TECHS: $17.469-$17.422 Supports Fresh Attempt Higher

*RES 4: $17.854 - 1.618 swing of $17.432-$16.749, Sep 14 high

*RES 3: $17.753 - 50% Fibo of $21.143-$14.362

*RES 2: $17.726 - Hourly resistance

*RES 1: $17.628 - High Jan 23

*PRICE: $17.612 @ 0434GMT     

*SUP 1: $17.469 - Hourly support 

*SUP 2: $17.422 - Hourly base Jan 24

*SUP 3: $17.278 - Hourly low Jan 23

*SUP 4: $17.081 - Initial High Jan 23, now support

*COMMENTARY: The Jan 23 high at $17.628 still providing a near term cap and

while intact, look to support from $17.469-$17.422. Any lower would caution and

suggest the time is ripe for some deeper correction of gains from last Friday's

$16.749 low. Above $17.628 and $17.726 appears next, ahead of the longer term

Fibo retrace level at $17.753 and swing target at $17.854, in line with the Sep

14 high.

--MNI London Bureau;tel: +44 207-862-7495; email: les.castell@marketnews.com