MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Initial Focus On 163.09-31

*RES 4: 164.13 Low June 16 now resistance

*RES 3: 163.31 High June 29

*RES 2: 163.14 55-DMA

*RES 1: 163.09 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.93

*SUP 1: 162.75 Hourly support Aug 1

*SUP 2: 162.50 High July 27 now support

*SUP 3: 162.07 Hourly support Aug 1

*SUP 4: 161.72 Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back towards the 21-DMA (161.66) provided

the catalyst for a break of 162.67 with immediate bullish focus on 163.09-31

where 55 & 100-DMAs are located and overall focus on 164.13. Initial support is

noted at 162.75 with bears needing a close below 162.50 to ease pressure on key

DMAs and below 162.07 to shift focus back to 161.02-66 where the 21-DMA is

noted.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.48 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 3: 132.85 High June 26 

*RES 2: 132.48 Low June 22 now resistance 

*RES 1: 132.40 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.36

*SUP 1: 132.32 Hourly support Aug 1

*SUP 2: 132.23 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 3: 132.09 Hourly support July 28

*SUP 4: 132.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around 132.17 came to an end with a rally and bullish

close Tuesday that sees the contract pressuring the 100-DMA. Bulls now look for

a close above 132.48 to confirm focus on 132.85-133.01 where the falling daily

TL is noted. O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top are key concerns for bulls.

The 132.23-32 support region is key today. bears need a close below 132.23 to

ease bullish pressure and below 132.01 to shift focus back 131.65-82.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) 112.095 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 3: 112.180 High June 14 

*RES 2: 112.160 Daily Bull channel top, 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 112.140 21-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.120

*SUP 1: 112.095 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support 

*SUP 2: 112.050 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.030 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.020 Low July 28

*COMMENTARY: Closes above the 100-DMA have provided the catalyst for a break

higher that sees bulls focused on layers of resistance 112.140/230. Daily

studies at O/B levels and the Bollinger top (112.110) remain key concerns for

bulls with potential to limit follow through. Initial support is noted at

112.095 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and shift

focus back to 112.010-050 where the bull channel base and key DMAs are situated.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 125.62 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 126.95 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 126.83 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 126.67 High July 24 

*RES 1: 126.54 High July 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 126.21

*SUP 1: 125.74 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 125.62 High July 17 now support, Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 124.95 Low July 14 

*SUP 4: 124.71 Low July 7

*COMMENTARY: Despite hesitation continuing ahead of 126.54-95 bulls take comfort

in support emerging on dips below the 21-DMA. The 125.62 support is key today

with bears needing a close below to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bull

channel base, shifting focus back to 124.71-95. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 55-DMA to hint at a shift higher in focus with above 127.20

targeting 127.66-128.68.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Correcting O/B Studies Weighing

*RES 4: 99.619 Bollinger band top

*RES 3: 99.610 High July 27 & 28

*RES 2: 99.589 55-DMA

*RES 1: 99.579 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.570

*SUP 1: 99.560 Low July 20

*SUP 2: 99.555 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.540 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 99.539 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/B daily studies are weighing with bearish pressure

resulting in a close below the 100-DMA. The close below the 100-DMA confirms a

shift in focus to 99.532-560 where 21 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are

situated. Bulls now need a close above the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and

above 99.610 to reconfirm a bullish bias initially targeting 99.650.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.285 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22 

*RES 1: 100.300 - High July 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low July 25 - 28

*SUP 2: 100.276 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.271 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.252 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite O/B daily studies correcting, bears failed to manage a

break of 100.285. Bears look for a close below 100.285 to ease bullish pressure

and signal a correction back to 100.271-276 where 21 & 55-DMAs and the daily

bull channel base are situated. While 100.285 supports bulls retain the upper

hand and focus on a break of 100.305 needed to target the 100.330-360 region.

The Bollinger top and O/B studies remain the key concerns for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 125-290

*RES 4: 126-290 - High June 26 

*RES 3: 126-180 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 126-120 - High July 21 & 24 

*RES 1: 126-080 - High Aug 1

*PRICE: 126-030 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-030 - Hourly support Aug 1

*SUP 2: 125-290 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support

*SUP 3: 125-210 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 125-150 - Low July 25

*COMMENTARY: The dip Tuesday found support around the 21-DMA (125-220) with the

bounce resulting in a marginal close above the bear channel top (126-040) and

immediate focus on 126-120. Bulls need a close above 126-120 to reconfirm the

bullish bias and shift focus to 126-290/127-080 where WMAs and 2017 highs are

located. Bears now need a close below 125-290 to ease bullish pressure and hint

at a dip back to 125-070/150.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.228-229 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.337 - Hourly resistance July 14

*RES 3: 2.321 - High Aug 1

*RES 2: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance

*RES 1: 2.273 - Low July 31 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.267 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.251 - Low Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 2.247 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.241 - Hourly support July 24 

*SUP 4: 2.229 - Low July 21, Low July 24

*COMMENTARY: The pop above the 21-DMA (2.306) was rejected ahead of 2.337

resulting in pressure back on the 55-DMA and a bearish close. Layers of support

2.228-2.247 are now key. Bears need a close below the 200-WMA (2.228) to shift

immediate focus to tests of 2017 lows. Resistance layers are building with a

close above 2.285 needed to gain breathing room and above 2.337 to see pressure

back on 2.351-396 where the bear channel top and July highs are located.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3508.90-3555.37 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: 3529.99 High July 20 

*RES 3: 3520.45 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 3508.90 Hourly support July 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3490.49 High Aug 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3477.39

*SUP 1: 3472.93 Hourly support Aug 1 

*SUP 2: 3447.73 Low Aug 1 

*SUP 3: 3436.33 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3431.19 Low July 24

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA continues with follow through above

the 21-DMA (3483.21) lacking Tuesday. Broad sideways trading 3431.19-3555.37

continues with the 3508.90-3555.37 resistance region key. Bulls need a close

above 3555.37 to confirm breaks of 55 & 100-DMAs and the bear channel top and

shift initial focus to 3615.06. While 3508.90 caps bears focus on a break of

3431.19 targeting 3390.04-3392.63.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]