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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
4 August 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (U17) Focus Shifts To 164.13-79
*RES 4: 165.44 High June 26
*RES 3: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance
*RES 2: 164.43 Low June 19 now resistance
*RES 1: 164.13 Low June 16 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.45
*SUP 1: 163.13 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 162.97 High Aug 2 now support
*SUP 3: 162.63 Low Aug 2
*SUP 4: 162.50 High July 27 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having previously hesitated ahead of key resistance layers bulls
made short work of key DMAs with the bullish close seeing focus shift to
164.13-79 where layers of resistance are noted. The Bollinger top (163.27) is
the key concern for bulls. The 55-DMA is initial support with bears needing a
close below to ease bullish pressure and below 162.50 now needed to shift focus
back to 161.02-78 where the 21-DMA and bull channel base are noted.
BOBL TECHS: (U17) 132.48 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 133.00 Falling daily TL
*RES 3: 132.95 High June 21
*RES 2: 132.85 High June 26
*RES 1: 132.48 Low June 22 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.41
*SUP 1: 132.35 Hourly support July 3
*SUP 2: 132.23 Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support
*SUP 3: 132.09 Hourly support July 28
*SUP 4: 132.01 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100-DMA (132.41) with bulls continuing to
look for a close above the key 132.48 resistance to confirm breaks of 55
(132.34) & 100-DMAs, shifting focus to 132.85-00. O/B studies and the Bollinger
top (132.45) remain concerns for bulls. In saying that, bears need a close below
132.23 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 131-82-85 where the
21-DMA and bull channel base are located.
SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Bulls Need Close Above 112.140
*RES 4: 112.180 High June 14
*RES 3: 112.170 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 112.160 55-WMA
*RES 1: 112.140 21-WMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.105
*SUP 1: 112.080 Low Aug 3
*SUP 2: 112.050 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 112.030 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 112.020 Low July 28
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-WMA is less than ideal for bulls with
daily studies at O/B levels & the Bollinger top (112.130) limiting follow
through. The break of 112.095 lacked follow through with bears now needing a
close below 112.080 to shift immediate focus back to 112.020-050 where the bull
channel base, 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls look for a close above 112.140 to
reconfirm the bullish bias and above 112.180 to confirm focus on 112.230.
GILT TECHS: (U17) 128.13-35 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 128.68 High June 21
*RES 3: 127.35 Low June 1 now resistance
*RES 2: 127.28 Low June 27 now resistance
*RES 1: 127.13 Daily Bull channel top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 126.95
*SUP 1: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3
*SUP 2: 126.21 Hourly resistance Aug 2 now support
*SUP 3: 125.87 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 125.72 Daily Bull channel base
*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips back to the 21-DMA and daily bull channel
base provided the catalyst for a close above 55 (126.92) & 100 (126.85) DMAs
with layers of resistance 128.13-35 now key. Bulls need a close above 127.35 to
shift focus to 128.68-129.19 where June highs are located. Bears now need a
close below 126.50 to ease bullish pressure and below 126.21 to shift focus back
to 125.62-87.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Reconfirm Dominance
*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13
*RES 3: 99.650 High June 21
*RES 2: 99.626 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 99.620 High Aug 3, Daily bull channel top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.610
*SUP 1: 99.588 55-DMA
*SUP 2: 99.561 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 99.560 Low July 20, Low Aug 3
*SUP 4: 99.540 200-DMA, Alternating daily support/resistance
*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA confirmed significance providing the base for an
aggressive rally that sees bull regain control and focus back on 99.650-690. The
55-DMA is noted as initial support with bears needing a close below to ease
bullish pressure and shift focus back to 99.560-561. Below 99.560 is needed to
confirm a break of the 21-DMA and pressure 99.537-540 where the bull channel
base and 200-DMA are situated.
EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Channel Base
*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6
*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19
*RES 2: 100.305 - 2017 High June 14 & 22
*RES 1: 100.300 - High July 25, High Aug 3
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.290
*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low July 25 - 28
*SUP 2: 100.277 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.274 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: 100.254 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Despite O/B daily studies correcting, bears failed to manage a
break of 100.285. Bears need a close below 100.285 to ease bullish pressure and
signal a correction back to 100.274-277 where 21 & 55-DMAs and the daily bull
channel base are situated. While 100.285 supports bulls retain the upper hand
and focus on a break of 100.305 needed to target the 100.330-360 region. The
Bollinger top and O/B studies remain the key concerns for bulls.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 125-290/126-040 Support Region Key
*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14
*RES 3: 126-290 - High June 26
*RES 2: 126-210 - Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 126-160 - Low June 21 now resistance
*PRICE: 126-130 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 126-110 - Hourly resistance Aug 3 now support
*SUP 2: 126-040 - Hourly support Aug 3
*SUP 3: 126-010 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 125-290 - Hourly resistance Aug 1 now support
*COMMENTARY: The break of 126-120 has lacked a little follow through with bulls
now looking for a close above 126-160 to confirm focus on 126-290/127-080 where
June highs are located. Daily studies remain well placed for further gains.
Bears now need a close below 126-040 to ease immediate bullish pressure and
below 125-290 to hint at a correction back to 125-140/240 where the 21 &
100-DMAs and daily bull channel base are located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus On 2017 Low
*RES 4: 2.285 - Hourly support July 31 now resistance
*RES 3: 2.275 - Hourly resistance Aug 2
*RES 2: 2.251 - Hourly resistance Aug 3
*RES 1: 2.235 - Hourly support Aug 3 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.225 @ 0430GMT
*SUP 1: 2.200 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 2.177 - High June 21 now support
*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26
*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14
*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2.285 leaves the yield looking heavy having
closed below the 2.229 support and 200-WMA (2.228) with bears focused on tests
of 2017 lows. Layers of resistance are accumulating with bulls needing a close
above 2.251 to gain breathing room and confirm a break above the 55-DMA (2.245).
Overall a close above the 200-DMA (2.309) is now needed to shift focus back to
2.337 and then 2.346-396 where the bear channel top and July highs are located.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Range Base Remains Unbroken
*RES 4: 3521.55 100-DMA
*RES 3: 3508.90 Hourly support July 20 now resistance
*RES 2: 3490.49 High Aug 1
*RES 1: 3466.11 Hourly support Aug 2 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3466.37
*SUP 1: 3454.06 Hourly support Aug 3
*SUP 2: 3433.68 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 3431.19 Low July 24
*SUP 4: 3407.33 Monthly Low Apr 19
*COMMENTARY: Broad sideways trading 3431.19-3555.37 continues with the
3508.90-3555.37 resistance region remaining key. Bulls now need a close above
3490.49 to shift focus back to 3508.90-3555.37. While 3490.49 caps bears now
focus on a break of 3431.19 needed to target 3369.47-3390.04 where the bear
channel base and 200-DMA (3369.47) are situated. Relatively flat Bollinger bands
suggest further sideways trading.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.