MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) 164.79 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 165.55 Monthly High June 14

*RES 3: 165.44 High June 26

*RES 2: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 1: 164.64 High Aug 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.55

*SUP 1: 164.19 Low Aug 11

*SUP 2: 164.03 Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 3: 163.64 Low Aug 10

*SUP 4: 163.51 High Aug 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand with the close above 163.51 that sees

initial focus on 164.79 and bulls needing a close above to confirm focus on

165.44-55 where June highs are situated. Layers of support continue to build

with bears now needing a close below 164.03 to ease immediate bullish pressure

and shift focus back to 163.51-64. Below the 55-DMA (163.20) is needed to

initially target 162.40-63.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Close Below 132.73 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: 133.26 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 3: 133.21 Weekly Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 132.95 High June 21, Falling daily TL 

*RES 1: 132.87 High Aug 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.84

*SUP 1: 132.73 Hourly support Aug 11

*SUP 2: 132.66 Low Aug 11

*SUP 3: 132.60 Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 4: 132.50 Hourly support Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence received a boost following Wednesday's rally and

close above 132.48 that sees bulls focused on 132.87-95. O/B daily studies and

the Bollinger top (132.84) remain concerns for bulls. Initial support is noted

at 132.73 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room. Overall bears

need a close below the 55-DMA (132.35) to shift focus back to 132.01-23.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Closes Above Key WMAs

*RES 4: 112.340 Low Apr 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 2: 112.190 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 112.180 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.160

*SUP 1: 112.160 55-WMA 

*SUP 2: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 4: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Layers of support confirmed significance with the rally Friday

resulting in fresh 2mth highs and confirming current focus now on tests of the

112.23 June high. The Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls and currently

limits follow through. The 112.100-160 support region where key WMAs are

situated is key for bulls this week. Bears need a close below 112.130 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below 112.100 to shift focus back to 112.020-080.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 127.56 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 129.19 Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 2: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 1: 128.24 High Aug 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.85

*SUP 1: 127.56 High Aug 9 now support 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support 

*SUP 4: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The close above 127.35 reconfirmed the bullish bias and sees bulls

focused on 128.68-129.19 where June highs are located. The Bollinger top

(127.80) remains the key concern for bulls. Initial support remains at 127.56

with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA

(126.44) to shift focus back to 125.62-126.04 where the bull channel base is

noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.682 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.653 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 217

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 2: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*SUP 3: 99.593 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.588 55-DMA, 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance has capped on the first attempt to break for

a fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support remains at

99.620 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below 99.600

to shift focus to key DMAs 99.588-593. The Bollinger top (99.653) remains the

key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.275-300 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 100.308 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11

*SUP 2: 100.290 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.281 - 55-DMA, Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 has provided the base for a rally and fresh

2017 & 10mth highs with bulls focus now on the 100.330-360 region last seen in

Oct 2016. Initial support is now noted at 100.300 with bears needing a close

below to gain breathing room and shift focus back to 100.275-290. Overall bears

need a close below 100.275 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to

100.245-262 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 126-140

*RES 4: 127-080 - Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 127-070 - 200-WMA 

*RES 2: 127-010 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 126-290 - High June 26

*PRICE: 126-210 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-140 - Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 2: 126-050 - Low Aug 9

*SUP 3: 126-030 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 125-290 - Low Aug 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls made up for a lack of follow through Wednesday with a bounce

from the 126-050 support that sees bullish focus on layers of resistance

126-290/127-080 where monthly highs and key WMAs are situated. The Bollinger top

(126-230) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Above 127-080 is needed to target the 100-WMA (128-000). Bears still need a

close below 126-140 to ease immediate bullish pressure.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Focused On 2017 Lows

*RES 4: 2.261 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 2.258 - High Aug 9

*RES 2: 2.234 - Hourly resistance Aug 10

*RES 1: 2.222 - High Aug 11

*PRICE: 2.206 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.174 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: 2.121 - Low June 26 

*SUP 4: 2.103 - 2017 Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield

capped ahead before heading sharply lower. The close below 2.212 reconfirmed

focus on tests of 2017 lows with a close below needed to target 1.991-2.205

where the 100-WMA is noted. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing

a close above 2.234 to gain breathing room and above 2.258 to shift focus back

to 2.261-289 where key DMAs are noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Immediate Focus On 200-DMA 

*RES 4: 3474.71 Hourly resistance July 9 

*RES 3: 3456.01 Hourly resistance July 10 

*RES 2: 3437.94 Hourly resistance Aug 10 

*RES 1: 3424.81 Low Aug 10 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3406.34

*SUP 1: 3390.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 3381.60 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3371.42 Low Mar 3 

*SUP 4: 3355.40 High Feb 22 now support

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from the most recent failure around the 55-DMA

(3511.81) has resulted in fresh 6mth lows with the break of 3431.19 seeing

bearish focus shift to 3371.42-3390.60 where the 200-DMA (3381.60), monthly lows

and the bear channel base (3372.90) are situated. Bulls now need a close above

3437.94 to ease bearish pressure and above 3490.49 to shift focus back to

3511.81-3539.48.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]