MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

15 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Below 163.51 To Target DMAs

*RES 4: 165.44 High June 26

*RES 3: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 2: 164.64 High Aug 10

*RES 1: 164.25 Hourly resistance Aug 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 164.06

*SUP 1: 163.86 Low Aug 14

*SUP 2: 163.64 Low Aug 10

*SUP 3: 163.51 High Aug 4 now support

*SUP 4: 163.19 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower Tuesday is a concern for bulls given daily

studies looking to correct from O/B beginning to weigh. The 163.51-64 support

region remains key with bears needing a close below 163.51 to hint at a deeper

correction and below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus to 162.50-70 where the

21-DMA is noted. Bulls now need a close above 164.25 to gain breathing room and

above 164.79 to confirm focus on 165.44-55 where June highs are situated.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Bulls Need Close Above 132.79

*RES 4: 133.26 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 3: 132.95 High June 21, Falling daily TL 

*RES 2: 132.87 High Aug 11, Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.79 Hourly resistance Aug 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.72

*SUP 1: 132.66 Low Aug 11

*SUP 2: 132.60 Hourly support Aug 10

*SUP 3: 132.50 Hourly support Aug 9

*SUP 4: 132.46 High Aug 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation is a concern given daily studies looking to

correct from O/B and the proximity of the Bollinger top (132.87). Initial

resistance is noted at 132.79 with bulls needing a close above to maintain focus

on 132.87-95. The close below 132.73 bought bears breathing room and hints at a

deeper correction initially targeting 132.35-50 where the 55-DMA is located.

Overall bears need a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to 132.01-23.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Double Daily Top

*RES 4: 112.340 Low Apr 20 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 2: 112.190 High Aug 11 & 14, Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.170 Hourly support Aug 14 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.160

*SUP 1: 112.155 Low Aug 14 

*SUP 2: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 3: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 4: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation leaves a double daily top in place as resistance

layers begin to accumulate. The Bollinger top remains the key concern having

recently limited follow through. Bears now look for a close below 112.130 to

confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below 112.100 to shift focus back to

112.020-080 where key DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above 112.170

ease pressure on support layers and retain focus on 112.230 June highs.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Bears Now Need Close Below 127.48

*RES 4: 129.19 Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 2: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 1: 128.24 High Aug 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.83

*SUP 1: 127.48 Low Aug 14 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support 

*SUP 4: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: The close above 127.35 reconfirmed the bullish bias and sees bulls

focused on 128.68-129.19 where June highs are located. The Bollinger top

(127.91) remains the key concern for bulls. Initial support is now noted at

127.48 with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and below

126.54 to shift focus back to 125.62-126.10 where the bull channel base is

noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.683 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.655 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 21 & Aug 11 & 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.630 Low Aug 11 & 14

*SUP 2: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 3: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*SUP 4: 99.598 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance continues to cap attempts to break for a

fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support is noted at 99.630

but bears look for a close below 99.620 to gain breathing room and below the

21-DMA to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 99.588-589. The Bollinger top (99.655)

remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.275-300 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 & 14 

*RES 1: 100.308 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11

*SUP 2: 100.292 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.282 - 55-DMA, Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 provided the base for a rally and fresh 2017

& 10mth highs with bullish focus now on the 100.330-360 region last seen in Oct

2016. Initial support remains at 100.300 with bears needing a close below to

gain breathing room and shift focus back to 100.275-292. Overall bears need a

close below 100.275 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 100.245-263

where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Focus Now On 125-290/126-050

*RES 4: 127-020 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 126-290 - High June 26 

*RES 2: 126-220 - Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: 126-140 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 126-110 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-050 - Low Aug 9, 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 126-040 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 125-290 - Low Aug 8, Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 125-210 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from O/B and the Bollinger top

(126-220) limiting follow through are weighing resulting in a break of the

126-140 support and seeing pressure now on 125-290/126-050. Bears look for a

close below 125-290 to hint at a deeper correction with below 125-150 targeting

124-210/250. Bulls continue to look for a close above 126-220 to ease renewed

bearish pressure and retain focus on 126-290.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.258 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8

*RES 3: 2.276 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: 2.258 - High Aug 9, 21-DMA

*RES 1: 2.244 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: 2.241 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.229 - High Aug 14 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 3: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.174 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.258 resistance confirmed significance Thursday with the yield

capped ahead before heading sharply lower. Bulls take comfort in the break above

2.238 but look for a close above 2.258 & the 21-DMA to shift focus back to

2.276-2.289 where the 100-DMA is noted. Correcting O/S studies add support to

the case for a correction but 2.258 remains key. Bears now need a close below

2.229 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bounce Sees Focus On 3490.49-3539.48 

*RES 4: 3509.48 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 3490.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: 3474.71 Hourly resistance July 9 

*RES 1: 3460.93 High Aug 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3450.66

*SUP 1: 3435.22 Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 2: 3424.81 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 3390.49 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3383.95 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have failed to capitalize on Monday's sell-off with the index

bouncing from ahead of the 200-DMA and bear channel base, easing immediate

bearish pressure and returning focus to 3490.49-3539.48 where the 55 & 100-DMAs

and bear channel top are situated. The 3424.81-3435.22 support region is key

today. Bears need a close below 3424.81 to return focus to 3355.40-3390.49 where

the 200-DMA is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]