MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

17 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Bulls Need Close Above 164.25

*RES 4: 164.79 Low June 21 now resistance

*RES 3: 164.64 High Aug 10

*RES 2: 164.25 Hourly resistance Aug 14

*RES 1: 164.08 High Aug 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.98

*SUP 1: 163.59 Hourly support Aug 16

*SUP 2: 163.45 Low Aug 15

*SUP 3: 163.33 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 163.18 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support again emerging on a dip back towards

key DMAs 162.92-163.33 and the bullish close that followed but the 164.25

resistance remains key. Bulls still need a close above 164.25 to gain breathing

room and above 164.79 to confirm focus on 165.44-55. Correcting O/B studies are

the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below the 21-DMA (162.92) to

continue with the correction and initially targeting 162.29-63.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Supported Ahead Of 100-DMA

*RES 4: 132.95 High June 21 

*RES 3: 132.87 High Aug 11 

*RES 2: 132.79 Hourly resistance Aug 14 

*RES 1: 132.75 High Aug 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.70

*SUP 1: 132.57 Hourly support Aug 16

*SUP 2: 132.49 Low Aug 16

*SUP 3: 132.46 High Aug 8 now support, 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 132.34 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies correcting from O/B and weighing bulls take

comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the 100-DMA with the bounce

seeing focus back on 132.87-95. Bulls need a close above 132.95 to reconfirm a

bullish bias initially targeting 133.26. Layers of support are noted 132.09-57

with bears needing a close below the 100-DMA to add weight to their case and

below the bull channel base (132.09) to target 131.82.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) 112.130 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 112.260 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.230 Monthly High June 12 

*RES 2: 112.200 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Aug 11 & 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.180

*SUP 1: 112.140 21-WMA 

*SUP 2: 112.130 High Aug 1 

*SUP 3: 112.100 Hourly support Aug 9, Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.070 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation left a double daily top in place with bulls

taking comfort in the bounce seeing pressure back on 112.190. The Bollinger top

remains the key concern. Bears look for a close below 112.130 to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and below 112.100 to shift focus back to 112.020-080

where key DMAs are situated. Bulls still need a close above 112.190 ease

pressure on support layers and reconfirm a bullish bias targeting 112.230/260.

GILT TECHS: (U17) Remains Capped Ahead Of 127.87

*RES 4: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 3: 128.68 High June 21 

*RES 2: 128.24 High Aug 11 

*RES 1: 127.87 High Aug 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 127.56

*SUP 1: 127.22 Low Aug 16 

*SUP 2: 127.06 Low Aug 9 

*SUP 3: 126.76 Hourly resistance Aug 7 now support 

*SUP 4: 126.50 Hourly support Aug 3

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging ahead of the 126.54-127.06 support region is less

than ideal for bears who need a close below 126.54 to confirm breaks of key DMAs

and hint at a move back to 125.62. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the

bearish case. The 127.87 resistance remains key with a close above needed to

return focus to 128.24-68. Above 128.24 is needed to reconfirm the bullish bias.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) 99.620 & 99.650 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 3: 99.683 Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 99.659 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.650 High June 21 & Aug Repeatedly

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.640

*SUP 1: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 2: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*SUP 3: 99.606 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.600 Low Aug 4

*COMMENTARY: The 99.650 resistance continues to cap attempts to break for a

fresh leg higher targeting 99.690 2017 highs. Initial support is noted at 99.630

but bears look for a close below 99.620 to gain breathing room and below the

21-DMA to shift focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 99.588-592. The Bollinger top (99.659)

remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.275-300 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.375 - High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 2017 High Aug 11 - 16, Bollinger top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 2: 100.295 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.283 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The support at 100.285 provided the base for a rally and fresh 2017

& 10mth highs with bullish focus now on the 100.330-360 region last seen in Oct

2016. Initial support remains at 100.300 with bears needing a close below to

gain breathing room and shift focus back to 100.275-295. Overall bears need a

close below 100.275 to end bullish hopes and shift focus back to 100.246-266

where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) Focus Back On 126-220/290

*RES 4: 127-070 - 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 127-050 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 126-290 - High June 26 

*RES 1: 126-220 - Hourly resistance Aug 14

*PRICE: 126-150 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-050 - Hourly support Aug 16

*SUP 2: 126-000 - Low Aug 16

*SUP 3: 125-310 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 125-290 - Low Aug 8

*COMMENTARY: The 125-290/000 support region confirmed significance Wednesday

with the contact recovering from a close below 21 (126-060) & 55 (126-040) DMAs.

Bulls have gained breathing room with focus back on the 126-220/290 region.

Bulls need a close above 126-290 to reconfirm the bullish bias and initially

target 127-070/080. The 125-290/000 support region remains key with a close

below 125-290 to end bullish hopes with below 125-150 targeting 124-210/250.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.289 Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 2.320 - Daily Bear channel top

*RES 3: 2.289 - High Aug 4 & 8 

*RES 2: 2.264 - Hourly support Aug 16 now resistance

*RES 1: 2.250 - Alternating hourly support/resistance

*PRICE: 2.233 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.222 - Low Aug 16 

*SUP 2: 2.203 - Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 3: 2.177 - High June 21 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.174 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.289 resistance confirmed significance with the yield rejected

ahead of this level and the sell-off resulting in a bearish close. Initial focus

has now returned to the 2.174-177 supports with a close below needed to confirm

focus on 2.053-121 where 2017 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing with bulls now needing a close above

2.264 to shift focus back to 2.289.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3506.41-3539.48 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: 3529.99 High July 20 

*RES 3: 3524.71 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 3506.41 55-DMA, Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 3497.29 High Aug 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3484.57

*SUP 1: 3472.24 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3435.22 Hourly support Aug 14 

*SUP 3: 3424.81 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3390.49 Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalize on Monday's sell-off with the index

bouncing from ahead of the 200-DMA and bear channel base, easing immediate

bearish pressure and returning focus to 3506.41-3539.48 where the 55 & 100-DMAs

and bear channel top are situated. The 21-DMA is now seen as initial support

with bears needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

3424.81-3435.22.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]