MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

30 August 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (U17) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through

*RES 4: 166.40 2017 High Feb 24

*RES 3: 165.93 Monthly High Apr 18

*RES 2: 165.69 High Aug 29

*RES 1: 165.49 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 165.26

*SUP 1: 164.98 High Aug 28 now support

*SUP 2: 164.82 Daily Bull channel base A

*SUP 3: 164.58 Low Aug 28

*SUP 4: 164.36 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: Bullish focus remains on 165.93 with a close above confirming focus

on 2017 highs. The lack of topside follow through courtesy of the Bollinger top

is a concern for bulls who now look for a close above 165.69 to add support to

their case. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a close below the

bull channel base to ease bullish pressure and below 164.00 to confirm a break

of the 21-DMA (164.04) and shift focus back to 55 & 100-DMAs 163.16-43.

BOBL TECHS: (U17) Below 133.16 To Ease Bullish Pressure

*RES 4: 133.52 Monthly High Apr 13 

*RES 3: 133.46 Daily Bull channel top B 

*RES 2: 133.36 High Aug 29 

*RES 1: 133.26 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 133.25

*SUP 1: 133.16 High Aug 28 now support

*SUP 2: 132.94 Low Aug 28

*SUP 3: 132.91 Daily Bull channel base B

*SUP 4: 132.84 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: Bulls continue to dominate and are now targeting tests of 133.46-52

where the bull channel top and Apr high are situated. The lack of topside follow

through is a concern when combined with the proximity of the Bollinger top and

O/B daily studies. Initial support is noted at 133.16 with bears needing a close

below to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to 132.84-94 where the Bull

channel base is located.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U17) Bears Need Close Below 112.245

*RES 4: 112.331 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.300 High Apr 24 now support 

*RES 2: 112.290 Monthly High May 30, High Aug 29 

*RES 1: 112.274 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.260

*SUP 1: 112.245 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 2: 112.215 Low Aug 28 

*SUP 3: 112.212 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 112.190 Low Aug 25

*COMMENTARY: Since sideways trading 112.130-190 ended the contract has attracted

support on dips. Bears now look for a close below 112.245 to confirm an easing

of bullish pressure and below 112.190 to shift immediate pressure to 112.164-190

where the 21-DMA is located. Overall below 112.130 is needed to target

112.045-073. While 112.245 supports immediate focus remains on 112.290-331. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top (112.274) remain concerns.

GILT TECHS: (U17) 127.80-128.40 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 129.19 Monthly High June 14 

*RES 3: 129.01 High June 15 

*RES 2: 128.83 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 128.82 High Aug 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 128.71

*SUP 1: 128.40 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 2: 128.24 High Aug 11 now support 

*SUP 3: 128.14 High Aug 24 now support 

*SUP 4: 128.02 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls remain firmly in control with immediate bullish focus now on

128.82-129.19 where the Bollinger top and bull channel top are located. The

Bollinger top remains the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Initial support is noted at 128.40 with bears needing a close below to

gain breathing room and below 127.80 to shift focus back to 126.88-127.50 where

key DMAs are noted.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Focused On 99.680-703

*RES 4: 99.703 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 3: 99.690 2017 Highs June 12 & 13

*RES 2: 99.670 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 99.660 High Aug 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.650

*SUP 1: 99.640 Low Aug 29

*SUP 2: 99.630 Repeated Daily Lows Aug

*SUP 3: 99.628 21-DMA, Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 99.620 Low Aug 8 & 9

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.630-650 came to an end Tuesday with fresh 2mth

highs reconfirming the bullish bias and seeing bulls focused on 99.680-703 where

the bull channel top is noted. Layers of support remain with bears now needing a

close below the bull channel base & 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below

99.610 to pressure 55 (99.586) & 100 (99.597) DMAs. The Bollinger top remains

the key concern for bulls.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below Channel Base

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.319 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - 2017 High Aug 22 - 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.303 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Low Aug 11 - 16

*SUP 3: 100.299 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: 100.287 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on recent 2017 highs with the Bollinger band top

capping and modestly O/B daily studies correcting also a concern and weighing a

little. In saying that, bears need a close below the daily bull channel base to

ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to signal a correction that initially

targets the 100-DMA (100.274). While the channel base supports bull target

100.330-370.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U17) 126-250/300 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 127-310 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 127-190 - 2017 High Aug 29 

*RES 2: 127-170 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 127-110 - Hourly resistance Aug 29

*PRICE: 127-020 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 126-300 - Repeated daily highs now support

*SUP 2: 126-250 - Hourly support Aug 25

*SUP 3: 126-200 - Hourly resistance Aug 22 now support

*SUP 4: 126-180 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Follow through was lacking on Tuesday's rally with the Bollinger

top (127-080) the key concern for bulls who now focus on the 100-WMA. A weekly

close above the 100-WMA was last seen in Nov 2016. Layers of support remain but

the 126-250/300 support remains key. Bears need a close below 126-300 to ease

immediate bullish pressure and below 126-250 to hint at a correction back to

126-110-180 where the bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 2.229 - Hourly resistance Aug 17 

*RES 3: 2.206 - Hourly support Aug 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.180 - High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 2.155 - Low Aug 28 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.148 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.119 - Hourly resistance Aug 29 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.088 - 2017 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: 2.054 - 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 1.991 - Low Nov 10

*COMMENTARY: Failure ahead of the 2.229 in previous weeks has resulted in fresh

2017 and 10mth lows with bears now initially focused on 1.991-2.054 with overall

focus on 1.879 which is the breakout level from Nov 2016. The lack of follow

though is less than ideal with the Bollinger base hinting the move is a little

overdone. The 2.155-180 resistance is key today with bulls needing a close above

2.155 to gain breathing room and above 2.180 to shift focus back to 2.206-2.229.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Supported Ahead Of Bear Channel Base 

*RES 4: 3467.78 High Aug 23 

*RES 3: 3455.03 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 3439.65 High Aug 28 

*RES 1: 3411.89 High Aug 29

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3388.22

*SUP 1: 3373.52 Hourly support Aug 29 

*SUP 2: 3363.68 Low Aug 29 

*SUP 3: 3355.40 High Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 4: 3346.59 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA has capped recent attempts to return pressure to the

55-DMA and bear channel top (3485.04) resulting in a close below the 200-DMA

(3407.02). Bears now focus on 3324.94-3363.68 with a close below 3324.94 to

target 2017 lows (3214.31). Initial resistance is now noted at 3411.89 with

bulls needing a close above to shift focus back to 3455.03-3539.48. The

Bollinger base (3391.82) is a concern and currently limits follow through.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]