MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 September 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Above 162.15 Targets 162.89-163.43

*RES 4: 162.47 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: 162.15 Hourly support Sept 12 now resistance

*RES 2: 161.98 High Sept 25

*RES 1: 161.96 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.95

*SUP 1: 161.81 Hourly support Sept 25

*SUP 2: 161.44 Hourly support Sept 25a

*SUP 3: 161.31 Hourly resistance Sept 25 now support

*SUP 4: 161.12 Low Sept 25

*COMMENTARY: The 55 & 100-DMAs (160.66-80) supported last week providing the

impetus for a break of 160.50 with bullish focus now on 162.15. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 162.15 to shift focus back to 162.89-163.43.

Correcting modestly O/S studies add support to the bullish case. Layers of

support are building with bears needing a close below 161.81 to gain breathing

room and below 161.31 to shift focus back to 160.50-80.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Focus Shifts To 131.60-64

*RES 4: 131.64 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 3: 131.60 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 131.49 High Sept 15 

*RES 1: 131.48 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.41

*SUP 1: 131.37 Hourly support Sept 25

*SUP 2: 131.23 Hourly support Sept 25a

*SUP 3: 131.16 High Sept 22 now support

*SUP 4: 131.06 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from 131.98 found support around the 55-DMA and ahead

of 130.90 last week with the contract correcting higher Monday, easing bearish

pressure and shifting initial focus to 131.60-64. Bulls now need a close above

131.64 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target 131.83-98. Correcting O/S

studies add support to the bullish case. Bears need a close below 131.16 to

shift focus back to the 100-DMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 21-DMA Capping For Now

*RES 4: 112.230 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.205 High Sept 14 

*RES 2: 112.180 High Sept 25 

*RES 1: 112.171 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.170

*SUP 1: 112.160 Hourly support Sept 25 

*SUP 2: 112.120 Hourly resistance Sept 25 now support 

*SUP 3: 112.100 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 4: 112.065 Low Sept 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Wed-Fri courtesy of the Bollinger band

base provided the impetus for a correction Monday that sees the contract

flirting with the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a close above 112.180 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA and initially pressure 112.230-285 where the 100-DMA

(112.252) is located. Bears need a close below 112.160 to gain breathing room

and below 112.120 to shift focus back to 112.065 Sept lows.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) Above 125.21 To Target 125.87-126.11

*RES 4: 125.21 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 124.91 Low Sept 14 now resistance 

*RES 2: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 1: 124.36 High Sept 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.12

*SUP 1: 123.82 Hourly support Sept 25 

*SUP 2: 123.58 Hourly support Sept 21 

*SUP 3: 123.36 Low Sept 21 

*SUP 4: 123.17 Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Very O/S daily studies looking to correct remain the key concern

for bears. Layers of resistance remain with bulls now needing a close above

124.25 to gain breathing room and above 125.21 to shift focus back to

125.87-126.11 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Initial support is noted at

123.82 with bears needing a close below to ease correction talk and return focus

to 123.36.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.360

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340

*SUP 1: 99.310 Low Sept 20

*SUP 2: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 3: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 4: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Losses continued for H18 last week with bearish focus on 99.230

with a close below needed to target 98.980-99.040 where Apr & May 2016 lows are

situated. Very O/S studies remain the key concern for bears. Initial resistance

is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room. A close above is needed to shift 99.410 focus back to the 200-DMA

(99.508).

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.305

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated daily lows Aug & Sept

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.287 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains supported ahead of the 55-DMA (100.301) with a

close below 100.300 needed to confirm a break and initially pressure 100.275-287

where the 100-DMA is located. Modestly O/S studies correcting add support to the

bullish case for a return in pressure to 100.325-330 with bulls now needing a

close above 100.315 to confirm. Bollinger bands (100.303-323) remain flat as

broad sideways trading continues.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Flirting With 55-DMA

*RES 4: 126-170 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 126-090 - High Sept 18 

*RES 2: 126-050 - High Sept 20 

*RES 1: 126-040 - High Sept 25, 55-DMA

*PRICE: 126-020 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-310 - Hourly resistance Sept 25 now support

*SUP 2: 125-230 - Low Sept 25

*SUP 3: 125-170 - Low Aug 8 & Sept 20

*SUP 4: 125-040 - Low July 26

*COMMENTARY: Consolidation below the 100-DMA (125-280) appears to have ended

with a bounce that sees the contract flirting with the 55-DMA. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 126-090 to hint at a correction back to 126-270. O/S

daily studies correcting add support to the case for a bigger correction. The

125-170/230 support is now key. Bears need a close below 125-230 to ease renewed

bullish pressure and below 125-170 to shift focus lower.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 2.208

*RES 4: 2.290 - High Aug 4 

*RES 3: 2.287 - High Sept 20 

*RES 2: 2.266 - Hourly support Sept 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.232 - Hourly support Sept 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.222 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.208 - Low Sept 18 

*SUP 2: 2.171 - Hourly resistance Sept 13 now support, 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.143 - Hourly support Sept 12 

*SUP 4: 2.118 - Hourly support Sept 11

*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 2.290 hurdle has left the yield looking heavy

closing back below the 55 (2.224) & 100 (2.236) DMAs. Immediate focus shifts

back to 2.208 with bears needing a close below to target 2.118-171 where the

21-DMA is located. Layers of resistance are building with bulls needing a close

above 2.266 to return immediate pressure to 2.290 and overall focus to 2.329-337

where the 200-DMA is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: O/B Daily Studies Key Concern For Bulls 

*RES 4: 3581.70 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3581.43 High June 26 

*RES 2: 3555.37 High June 29 

*RES 1: 3553.08 High Sept 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3537.81

*SUP 1: 3530.88 Low Sept 25 

*SUP 2: 3520.72 Low Sept 20 

*SUP 3: 3506.61 Low Sept 13 

*SUP 4: 3497.29 High Aug 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of 3539.48 came to an end Thursday with bulls

looking for a close above 3555.37 to confirm initial focus on 3615.06 and

overall focus on 2017 highs. Momentum divergence and O/B studies remain the key

concern for bulls. Support layers remain in place with bears needing a close

below 3530.88 to gain breathing room and below 3497.29 to shift initial focus

back to 3444.64-3477.79 where key DMAs are clustered.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]