MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

13 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 161.03 & 161.82 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 162.07 High Sept 13

*RES 3: 161.82 High Oct 4

*RES 2: 161.78 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 161.68 High Oct 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.53

*SUP 1: 161.11 Low Oct 11

*SUP 2: 161.03 Hourly support Oct 6

*SUP 3: 160.85 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*SUP 4: 160.75 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The 161.03-11 support region has provided the base so far this week

with pressure remaining on the key 161.82-162.15 resistance region. Narrowing

Bollinger bands remain suggestive of a breakout. Bulls need a close 161.82 to

gain breathing room and above 162.15 to target 163.43 Sept highs. While 161.82

caps bears retain the advantage but continue to look for a close below 161.03 to

add weight to their case and below 160.25 to initially pressure 159.58-79.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 131.37-64 Resistance Region Now Key

*RES 4: 131.60 High Sept 14 

*RES 3: 131.50 High Oct 4 

*RES 2: 131.42 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 131.37 High Oct 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.33

*SUP 1: 131.13 Low Oct 11

*SUP 2: 131.08 Hourly resistance Oct 6 now support

*SUP 3: 131.05 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.96 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: With the 131.13 level having supported so far this week and the

100-DMA (131.06) just below, pressure has again turned to resistance layers

following a marginal break of the bear channel top (131.308). Bulls now need a

close above 131.37 to confirm a break above 131.64 to end bearish hopes and

target 131.83.98. Bears continue to look for a close below 131.13 to reconfirm

focus on 130.90-96.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.065 & 112.230 Levels Key

*RES 4: 112.215 High Oct 4 

*RES 3: 112.195 Hourly support Oct 4a now resistance 

*RES 2: 112.189 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 112.185 High Oct 10

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.165

*SUP 1: 112.125 Low Oct 9 

*SUP 2: 112.113 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.105 Low Oct 6 

*SUP 4: 112.090 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Dips have found support ahead of the 55-DMA this week with the

contract managing a close above the 100-DMA (112.150) Thursday. Layers of

resistance remain 112.185-230. Bulls look for a close above 112.185 to gain

breathing room and above 112.230 to end bearish hopes and confirm initial focus

on 112.285. The 112.065-105 support region remains key. Bears need a close below

112.065 to confirm a bearish bias and initially target 111.985-112.015.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.36-65 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 124.65 High Sept 19 

*RES 3: 124.36 High Sept 20 

*RES 2: 124.22 High Oct 4 

*RES 1: 124.05 High Oct 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.78

*SUP 1: 123.52 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 2: 123.29 Hourly support Sept 28 

*SUP 3: 123.12 Low Sept 28 

*SUP 4: 122.60 2017 Low Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 124.36 resistance confirmed significance last Monday with the

contract rallying only to be capped at this level. Bulls still need a close

above 124.36 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (124.00) & gain breathing room

with above 124.65 to shift immediate focus to 125.21. Bears still need a close

below 123.32 to retain focus on 123.12 and overall focus on 122.60 2017 lows.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.360 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.390 Monthly Lows June 30 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.360 Highs Sept 18 & 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.330

*SUP 1: 99.320 Low Oct 12

*SUP 2: 99.310 Low Sept 20 & 28

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.310-360 continues with bears needing a close

below 99.310 to reconfirm a bearish bias and target 99.110-230. Key resistance

is still noted at 99.360 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing

room. A close above 99.410 is again needed to shift focus to 99.481-520 where

55, 100 & 200-DMAs are clustered. Momentum studies have corrected their

previously O/S condition and are well placed for a fresh leg lower.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) 100.300 & 100.315 Levels Remain Key

*RES 4: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Sept 25 & 26, Oct 4 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 2: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 100.294 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated daily lows

*COMMENTARY: Although the contract closed marginally below the 55-DMA (100.307)

last week, bears need a close below 100.300 to confirm a break and initially

pressure 100.285-294. The contract managed closes above the 21-DMA (100.308)

with bulls still needing a close above 100.315 to return focus to 100.325-300.

Overall bears need a close below 100.285 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA and

below 100.275 to target the 200-DMA (100.261).

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-140/230 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 125-230 - Low Sept 25 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125-190 - High Oct 4 

*RES 2: 125-170 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 125-140 - High Oct 5 & 10

*PRICE: 125-120 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 125-050 - Hourly support Oct 11

*SUP 2: 124-310 - Hourly support Oct 9

*SUP 3: 124-260 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 124-220 - Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of downside follow-through on fresh 3mth lows last Friday

was a concern for bears and resulted in a correction back to layers of

resistance 125-140/230. Bulls need a close above 125-230 to initially shift

focus to tests of 126-020/090. Layers of support remain with bears still needing

a close below 124-310 to end correction talk and maintain initial bearish focus

on 124-140 July lows.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.284 Support Key

*RES 4: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 3: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 2.372 - Hourly resistance Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.355 - Hourly resistance Oct 11

*PRICE: 2.328 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.317 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.296 - Low Sept 29 

*SUP 3: 2.292 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.284 - Hourly support Sept 27a

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on last week's 7mth highs has seen

pressure return to the 200-DMA with the 2.284-317 seen as key. Bears need a

close below 2.284 to confirm breaks of 21 & 200-DMAs and to shift immediate

focus to 2.208-2.245 where 55 (2.232) & 100 (2.237) DMAs are located. Resistance

layers are building once more with bulls now needing a close above 2.372 to ease

pressure on supports and above 2.437 to return overall focus to 2017 highs.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Supported On Dips 

*RES 4: 3662.49 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 3638.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3618.34 High Oct 9 

*RES 1: 3610.50 Hourly resistance Oct 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3605.54

*SUP 1: 3589.98 Low Oct 10 

*SUP 2: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3575.85 Hourly resistance Sept 29a now support 

*SUP 4: 3569.49 Hourly support Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow-through on recent 5mth highs is a

concern for bulls given daily studies looking to correct from O/B. Bears still

need a close below 3582.07 to confirm a correction with immediate focus shifting

to 3555.90-3568.42 where the bull channel base and 21-DMA are situated. A close

below 3555.90 then targets 3497.29-3409.61 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bulls

need a close above 3618.34 to reconfirm the bullish bias.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]