MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

24 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) 100-DMA Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 162.78 High Oct 17

*RES 3: 162.56 High Oct 19

*RES 2: 162.04 Low Oct 19 now resistance

*RES 1: 161.78 High Oct 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.65

*SUP 1: 161.35 Low Oct 20

*SUP 2: 161.09 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: 160.96 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 160.59 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: A double daily top combined with daily studies looking to correct

from O/B provided the setup for the sell-off Friday that sees bears focused on

the previously noted 160.96-161.09 where the daily bull channel base and 100-DMA

are situated. Below the 100-DMA hints at a move to 159.58-79 with below 160.24

to confirm. Bulls continue to look for a close above 162.04 to ease immediate

bearish pressure increase the risk of a correction back to 162.56-89.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 131.63-83 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 131.76 High Oct 17 

*RES 3: 131.72 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 2: 131.63 Hourly support Oct 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.47 High Oct 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.41

*SUP 1: 131.37 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 131.26 Low Oct 20

*SUP 3: 131.13 Low Oct 11

*SUP 4: 131.04 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to gain traction below 21 (131.35) & 55

(131.35) DMAs with Mondays recovery less than ideal. Bears need a close below

131.37 to gain breathing room and below 131.26 to reconfirm focus on

130.90-131.13 where the 100-DMA and Sept lows are found. Bulls now need a close

above 131.47 to return focus to 131.63-83 where the daily bear channel top off

Sept highs and Bollinger top are noted. 

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.250-285 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 112.267 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 112.250 Low Sept 8 & 11 now resistance 

*RES 2: 112.230 High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 112.220 High Oct 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.210

*SUP 1: 112.180 Low Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 112.174 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.170 Hourly resistance Oct 12 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.143 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the daily bull channel top resulted in a

correction and a dip below 112.185. Follow through has so far been lacking with

the 21 & 55-DMA supports key this week. Bears look for a close below the 21-DMA

to ease bullish pressure and below the 55-DMA to add weight to the case for a

test of 112.065 Sept lows. Bulls look for a close above 112.250 to ease bearish

pressure and above 112.285 to target 112.360.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 100-WMA Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 125.49 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 125.27 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 125.00 High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 124.75 High Oct 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.61

*SUP 1: 124.22 Low Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 124.08 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 124.02 Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 123.46 Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around the 125.00 level last week took its toll Friday

with a sell-off that sees focus now on 124.02-08 where the 21-DMA is noted.

Bears need a close below 124.02 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus

back to 123.12-46. Daily studies correcting from modestly O/B add weight to the

bearish case. Layers of resistance remain 124.75-125.27 with a close above

needed to pressure 55 & 100-DMAs (125.49-66).

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.330 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 2: 99.400 High Oct 20

*RES 1: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.360

*SUP 1: 99.330 Low Oct 18

*SUP 2: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 3: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 4: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2017 and 16mth lows saw a pop higher Friday

although follow through has been lacking. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 99.410 to shift immediate focus to 99.450-457 where the 55-DMA is located

Bulls retain the advantage while 99.330 supports with bears needing a close

below 99.330 to shift pressure back to 2017 lows. Very narrowed Bollinger bands

remain suggestive of a breakout.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Sept & Oct now support

*SUP 2: 100.311 - 55-DMA, 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: Support at 100.305 provided the base for a break of 100.315 with

bulls focused on 100.320-325 where 2017 highs are situated. Overall a close

above 100.330 is needed to target 100.360. Bears now look for a close below the

55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and shift focus to layers of support

100.296*-305 where the bull channel base and 100-DMA are found. Overall bears

need a close below the channel base (100.296) to shift focus to 100.285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 125-01+/16+ Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 125-25+ High Oct 13

*RES 3: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125-05+ Hourly support Oct 19 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-01+ Hourly resistance Oct 20

*PRICE: 124-30+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 124-22+ Low Oct 6

*SUP 2: 124-14+ Monthly Lows July 6 & 7

*SUP 3: 124-12+ Daily Bear channel base A

*SUP 4: 123-17+ Daily Bear channel base B

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive recovery from ahead of 125-01+ remained capped ahead

of the 125-16+ resistance and the bear channel top (125-07+) last week. Layers

of resistance are adding weight to the bearish case. Bulls need a close above

125-05+ to gain breathing room and above 125-16+ to return focus to

125-25+/126-09 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears remain focused on

124-14/22+ this week where July lows are situated.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Hesitation Less Than Ideal

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Mar 23 

*RES 3: 2.423 - Monthly High Aug May 11 

*RES 2: 2.402 - High Oct 6 

*RES 1: 2.381 - Hourly resistance Oct 23

*PRICE: 2.368 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.350 - Hourly support Oct 20 

*SUP 2: 2.332 - Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 2.296 - Low Oct 17 

*SUP 4: 2.278 - Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2.402 resistance have left a double daily

top in place with the Bollinger top (2.405) just above. Bulls currently focus on

the 2.402-437 resistance region this week and need a close above to shift

initial focus to 2.544-558. The 2.332-350 support region remains key with bears

needing a close below to ease bullish pressure and see pressure back on the key

2.278 support below which targets 2.208-245.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3582.07 & 3625.87 Levels Remain Key 

*RES 4: 3666.80 2017 High May 8 

*RES 3: 3641.79 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3625.87 High Oct 18 

*RES 1: 3617.52 Low Oct 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3608.87

*SUP 1: 3604.31 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 3594.50 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 3582.07 Hourly resistance Sept 29 now support 

*SUP 4: 3556.50 Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 3625.87 resistance remains key and continues to cap providing

dips back towards the 21-DMA and daily bull channel base. Bears continue to look

for a close below 3582.07 to hint at a move back to 3506.61-3529.19 where 55 &

100-DMAs are noted. Bulls still need a close above 3625.87 to reconfirm the

bullish bias and target 2017 highs and then the daily bull channel top coming in

around 3698.80 today.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]