MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

30 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Weekly Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 163.07 100-WMA

*RES 3: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 2: 162.56 High Oct 19

*RES 1: 162.48 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.37

*SUP 1: 162.23 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support

*SUP 2: 161.85 Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 3: 161.63 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 4: 161.35 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through below the 100-DMA and hesitation ahead

of 160.59 resulted in a break higher last week, easing bearish pressure with

immediate focus on 162.48-163.07 where 55 (162.48) & 100-WMAs are found. Bulls

now need a close above the 100-WMA to hint at a move back to 2017 highs (166.40)

and above 163.43 Sept highs to confirm. Bears now need a close below 161.85 to

ease bullish pressure and below 161.63 to shift focus back to 160.59-76.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Bears Need Close Below 131.47

*RES 4: 132.05 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 131.98 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 2: 131.93 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 131.85 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.76

*SUP 1: 131.70 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support

*SUP 2: 131.57 Hourly support Oct 27

*SUP 3: 131.47 High Oct 23 now support

*SUP 4: 131.29 Hourly resistance Oct 24 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued Friday with the close above the bear channel top

confirming focus on the 131.93-132.05 resistance region where 55 & 100-WMAs are

located. Bulls now need a close above the 100-WMA to initially focus on tests of

the 200-WMA (132.27). Resistance layers are building bullish confidence with

bears now needing a close below 131.47 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus

back to 131.09.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) 112.230-240 Support Now Key

*RES 4: 112.455 Low Apr 12 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.414 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 112.315 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.285

*SUP 1: 112.275 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support 

*SUP 2: 112.240 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 3: 112.230 High Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.200 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base and 55-DMA confirmed significance and

provided the base for an aggressive rally that continued Friday with bulls now

focused on 112.365-455 where the bull channel top and monthly highs are noted.

Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a

close below 112.275 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 112.230 to

shift focus to 112.158-190 where the channel base and 55-DMA are found.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 124.27 Resistance Remains key

*RES 4: 125.00 High Oct 19 

*RES 3: 124.75 High Oct 20 

*RES 2: 124.27 High Oct 25 

*RES 1: 124.21 Daily Bear channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.09

*SUP 1: 123.71 Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 2: 123.44 Low Oct 26 

*SUP 3: 123.32 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 123.17 Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and hesitation around the Bolli base

last week is less than ideal with support layers now building once more. The

124.27 resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above 124.27 to confirm a break

of the bear channel top off Sept highs and shift focus to layers of resistance

124.75-125.52 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below 123.71

to ease immediate bullish pressure and return focus to 123.12-17.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.370

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.400 High Oct 20

*RES 2: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*RES 1: 99.350 Lows Oct 23 & 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340

*SUP 1: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 2: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract struggled last week with focus returning to the

99.300-320 support region. Bears continue to look for a close below 2017 lows to

shift focus to 99.110-230. Very narrowed Bollinger bands (98.314-99.364) remain

suggestive of a breakout. Bulls now need a close above 99.370 to see pressure

back on 99.390-410.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Supported Below 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 3: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 & Oct 27 

*RES 1: 100.324 - Bollinger Band Top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Hourly support Oct 26

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21 (100.313) & 55 (100.312) DMAs last week lacked

follow through with the contract recovering to retest 2017 highs Friday. Bulls

need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360. Bears now look for a close below

100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish pressure. Below the

bull channel base (100.298) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus back

to 100.275-285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) 21-DMA Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 125-02+ 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-01+ Hourly resistance Oct 20 

*RES 2: 124-29 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 124-28 Hourly support Oct 23 now resistance

*PRICE: 124-27 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-24 High Oct 27 now support

*SUP 2: 124-15 Hourly resistance Oct 26 now support

*SUP 3: 124-06 Low Oct 25

*SUP 4: 124-00+ Rising Weekly TL

*COMMENTARY: The failure to take out 124-06 last week resulted in a bounce

Friday and bullish close that increase the risk of a correction back to the bear

channel top and 21-DMA (124-29+/125-02+). Bulls now need a close above the

21-DMA to open up for a move back to 125-25+/126-04+ where 55 & 100-DMAs are

noted and above 125-16+ to confirm. Bears now need a close below 124-24 to ease

pressure on resistance layers.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Looking A Little Heavy

*RES 4: 2.560 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 2.558 - Low Mar 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 1: 2.477 - High Oct 25

*PRICE: 2.401 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.394 - Hourly support Oct 24 

*SUP 2: 2.363 - Hourly support Oct 23 

*SUP 3: 2.357 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.352 - High Oct 18 now support

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow-through in the latter half of last week

is less than ideal for bulls with the Bollinger top (2.445) currently the key

concern. The 2.394 support remains key. Bears need a close below 2.394 to ease

bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to initially pressure the 200-DMA (2.314)

and hint at a correction back to 2.251-278. Layers of resistance are starting

weigh with bulls needing a close above 2.445 to shift pressure back to 2.477.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3580.21-3625.87 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015 

*RES 3: 3706.89 Daily Bull Channel top 

*RES 2: 3686.57 High Aug 6 2015 

*RES 1: 3670.00 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3652.23

*SUP 1: 3639.81 High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 3625.87 High Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 3: 3608.72 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3580.21 Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalize on the close below the 21-DMA Wednesday

with index trading at fresh 5mth highs Thursday and Friday. Bears now need a

close below 3625.87 to ease bullish pressure and below 3580.21 to confirm a

break of the bull channel base (3582.15) and shift focus back to 3506.61-3529.19

where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls remain focused on the break of 3666.80

2017 highs needed to pressure the bull channel top.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]