MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

31 October 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Bulls Need Weekly Close Above 100-WMA

*RES 4: 163.43 Monthly high Sept 8

*RES 3: 163.14 100-WMA

*RES 2: 162.89 Low Sept 11 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.78 High Oct 17

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.71

*SUP 1: 162.62 Hourly support Oct 30

*SUP 2: 162.23 Hourly resistance Oct 27 now support

*SUP 3: 161.85 Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 4: 161.63 Low Oct 27

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through below the 100-DMA and hesitation ahead

of 160.59 resulted in a break higher last week, easing bearish pressure with

immediate focus on 162.89-163.14 where the 100-WMA is found. Bulls need a close

above the 100-WMA to hint at a move back to 2017 highs (166.40) and above 163.43

Sept highs to confirm. Bears need a close below 162.23 to ease bullish pressure

and below 161.63 to shift focus to 160.59-92 where the bull channel base is.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) 131.47-70 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: 132.03 100-WMA 

*RES 3: 131.98 Monthly High Sept 8 

*RES 2: 131.91 55-WMA 

*RES 1: 131.85 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.80

*SUP 1: 131.70 Hourly res Oct 27 now support, Low Oct 30

*SUP 2: 131.57 Hourly support Oct 27

*SUP 3: 131.47 High Oct 23 now support

*SUP 4: 131.29 Hourly resistance Oct 24 now support

*COMMENTARY: Gains continued Friday with the close above the bear channel top

confirming focus on the 131.91-132.03 resistance region where 55 & 100-WMAs are

located. Bulls still need a close above the 100-WMA to initially focus on tests

of the 200-WMA (132.26). Support layers are building bullish confidence with

bears now needing a close below 131.70 to ease bullish pressure and below 131.47

to shift focus back to 131.09.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Below 112.230 To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 112.455 Low Apr 12 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.418 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 112.365 Monthly high Sept 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 112.315 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.275

*SUP 1: 112.270 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 2: 112.240 Low Oct 27 

*SUP 3: 112.230 High Oct 19 now support 

*SUP 4: 112.200 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base and 55-DMA (112.162) confirmed

significance and provided the base for an aggressive rally that continued Friday

with bulls now focused on 112.365-455 where the bull channel top and monthly

highs are noted. Bears now look for a close below 112.270 to ease immediate

bullish pressure and below 112.230 to shift focus to 112.162-190 where the

channel base and 55-DMA are found.

GILT TECHS: (Z17) 123.71 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 125.21 High Sept 15 

*RES 3: 125.00 High Oct 19 

*RES 2: 124.86 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 124.75 High Oct 20

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.39

*SUP 1: 124.03 Low Oct 30 

*SUP 2: 123.71 Hourly support Oct 27 

*SUP 3: 123.44 Low Oct 26 

*SUP 4: 123.32 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the break of the daily bear channel top and

21-DMA (124.10) that now sees focus shift to layers of resistance 124.75-125.49

where 55 & 100-DMAs and the 100-WMA (125.33) are situated. Bulls now need a

close above the 100-DMA to open up for a move back to 126.67-80. Initial support

is noted 124.03 but bears look for a close below 123.71 to return focus to

123.12-44.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.370

*RES 4: 99.410 High Sept 15

*RES 3: 99.400 High Oct 20

*RES 2: 99.370 Hourly resistance Oct 23

*RES 1: 99.350 Lows Oct 23 & 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.350

*SUP 1: 99.320 Hourly resistance Oct 17 now support

*SUP 2: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 3: 99.230 High June 21 2016 now support

*SUP 4: 99.110 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract struggled last week with focus returning to the

99.300-320 support region. Bears continue to look for a close below 2017 lows to

shift focus to 99.110-230. Very narrowed Bollinger bands (98.315-99.365) remain

suggestive of a breakout. Bulls need a close above 99.370 to see pressure back

on 99.390-410 and above 99.410 to shift focus to 99.435-450.

EURIBOR TECHS: (H18) Supported Below 21 & 55-DMAs

*RES 4: 100.370 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.360 - High Oct 6 

*RES 2: 100.330 - High Oct 19 

*RES 1: 100.325 - 2017 High Sept 5-8 & Oct 27 & 30

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.315 - Hourly support Oct 26

*SUP 2: 100.310 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Repeated Daily Lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.300 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21 (100.313) & 55 (100.312) DMAs last week lacked

follow through with the contract recovering to repeatedly retest 2017 highs.

Bulls need a close above 100.330 to target 100.360/370. Bears look for a close

below 100.310 to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs and ease bullish pressure. Below

the bull channel base (100.299) is needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus

back to 100.275-285.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Flirting With 21-DMA

*RES 4: 125-26+ 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-25+ High Oct 13 

*RES 2: 125-16+ Hourly support Oct 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: 125-02+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 125-02 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-30 Hourly resistance Oct 30 now support

*SUP 2: 124-23 Low Oct 30 now resistance

*SUP 3: 124-15 Hourly resistance Oct 26 now support

*SUP 4: 124-06 Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: The failure to take out 124-06 last week resulted in a bounce

Friday with gains Monday seeing immediate pressure return to the 21-DMA. Bulls

need a close above the 21-DMA to end bearish hopes and open up for a move back

to 125-25+/126-04+ where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted with above 125-16+ to confirm.

Bears now need a close below 124-23 to ease pressure on resistance layers and

return focus to 124-06.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.352 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.445 - Hourly support Oct 26 now resistance 

*RES 3: 2.434 - Hourly resistance Oct 27 

*RES 2: 2.419 - Hourly support Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 2.385 - Hourly support Oct 30 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.365 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.357 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.352 - High Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 3: 2.314 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.278 - Low Oct 16

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow-through in the latter half of last week

resulted in further losses Monday with bears now looking for a close below 2.352

to confirm a break of the bull channel base (2.379) & 21-DMA and shift focus

back to 2.245-2.278 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The 200-DMA may support along

the way. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a

close above 2.419 to ease bearish pressure.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3580.21-3625.87 Support Region Key 

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015 

*RES 3: 3712.00 Daily Bull Channel top 

*RES 2: 3686.57 High Aug 6 2015 

*RES 1: 3670.00 High Oct 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3662.18

*SUP 1: 3639.81 High Oct 26 now support 

*SUP 2: 3625.87 High Oct 18 now support 

*SUP 3: 3611.93 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3580.21 Low Oct 26

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalize on the close below the 21-DMA Wednesday

with index trading at fresh 5mth highs Thursday and Friday. Bears need a close

below 3625.87 to ease bullish pressure and below 3580.21 to confirm a break of

the bull channel base (3592.38) and shift focus back to 3506.61-3530.72 where 55

& 100-DMAs are located. Bulls remain focused on the break of 3670.00 2017 highs

needed to pressure the bull channel top.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]