MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

29 November 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (Z17) Above 163.40 To Ease Pressure On Channel Base

*RES 4: 163.63 High Nov 8

*RES 3: 163.49 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: 163.40 High Nov 9

*RES 1: 163.32 High Nov 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.02

*SUP 1: 162.92 Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 2: 162.61 Low Nov 23

*SUP 3: 162.36 Hourly support Nov 14

*SUP 4: 162.02 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The daily bull channel base off Oct 25 lows currently supports with

bears needing a close below 162.61 to confirm a break and ease bullish pressure

and below 162.36 to shift focus to 161.63-02 where the longer-term bull channel

base and 55-DMA are noted. Bulls remain focused on the 163.40-63 region. Above

163.63 targets the bull channel top (164.84). Narrowing Bolli bands remain

suggestive of a breakout this week.

BOBL TECHS: (Z17) Above 131.880 To End Bearish Hopes

*RES 4: 131.920 Hourly support Nov 7 now resistance 

*RES 3: 131.880 Hourly resistance Nov 9, High Nov 15 

*RES 2: 131.850 High Nov 21 

*RES 1: 131.820 High Nov 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.710

*SUP 1: 131.590 Low Nov 27

*SUP 2: 131.520 Low Nov 22

*SUP 3: 131.503 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 131.470 High Oct 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Dips back towards the 55-DMA have lacked follow through resulting

in a pop above the 21-DMA (131.768). Failure to gain traction on the break is

less than ideal for bulls who need a close above 131.880 to end bearish hopes

and shift focus back to 132.060. While 132.880 caps there is an increased risk

of a dip to 131.503-590 but a close below 131.470 is needed to shift initial

focus to 131.090-290 where the 100-DMA (131.260) is noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z17) Above 112.240 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 112.285 High Nov 15 

*RES 3: 112.257 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.240 Low Oct 27 now resistance 

*RES 1: 112.235 High Nov 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.210

*SUP 1: 112.185 Low Nov 28 

*SUP 2: 112.150 Low Oct 25 

*SUP 3: 112.122 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 112.105 Low Oct 6

*COMMENTARY: Time spent below the 55-DMA (112.204) was brief with the contract

bouncing. Bulls need a close above 112.240 to ease bearish pressure and above

112.285 to return focus to 112.315. Initial support is now noted at 112.185 with

bears needing a close below to retain immediate focus on 112.150 and overall

focus on 112.065-122 where the 100-DMA and monthly lows are situated. Daily

studies correcting from O/S is a concern for bears but 112.240 is key.

GILT TECHS: (H18) 55-DMA Support Key

*RES 4: 125.44 Daily Bull channel base 

*RES 3: 124.94 High Nov 8 

*RES 2: 124.82 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 124.60 High Nov 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.39

*SUP 1: 123.85 Low Nov 22 

*SUP 2: 123.82 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 3: 123.64 Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: 123.57 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 123.57-85 support region where the 55-DMA and daily bull

channel base are located remains key for H18. Bears need a close below to end

bullish hopes, shifting immediate focus to 123.15 and overall focus to 122.44

Oct lows. The 124.94 resistance is now key. Bulls need a close above to confirm

immediate focus on tests of the daily bull channel top (125.44).

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Below 99.350 To Target 99.310-350

*RES 4: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.446 100-DMA

*RES 2: 99.424 High Sept 15

*RES 1: 99.410 High Sept 15 & Nov 22-27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.400

*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3

*SUP 2: 99.360 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 99.310 Low Nov 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the contract trading above 21 & 55 DMAs and

tests of 99.410. Bulls look for a close above 99.410 to add support to their

case for a test of 100 (99.446) & 200 (99.491) DMAs. Bears now look for a close

below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA (99.385) easing bullish pressure,

and below 99.350 to shift focus back to 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.332 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Monthly High Oct 

*RES 2: 100.315 - Repeated daily highs Nov 

*RES 1: 100.314 - 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Low Nov 24 & 27 - 28

*SUP 2: 100.303 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Oct 26

*SUP 4: 100.289 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract is finding support around the bull channel base

(100.307) off Sept lows and ahead of the 55-DMA. Bears need a close below the

55-DMA to confirm a break of the channel base, shifting immediate focus to

100.295 and overall focus to 100.285-289 where the 100-DMA is situated. Bulls

now need a close above 100.315 to gain breathing room and above 100.320 to

confirm focus on the bull channel top.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z17) Remains Capped Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: 125-20+ 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 125-16+ High Oct 17 

*RES 2: 125-07+ High Nov 15, 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 125-05+ Daily Bear channel top

*PRICE: 125-03 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-27 Low Nov 27

*SUP 2: 124-19 Lows Nov 21 & 22

*SUP 3: 124-16 Low Nov 14

*SUP 4: 124-06 Low Oct 25

*COMMENTARY: The failure ahead of the 55-DMA and marginal pop above the bear

channel top leave the contract looking a little heavy with pressure back on the

124-27 support. Overall the 124-16 support is key with bears needing a close

below to initially pressure 124-03/06 where the LT weekly TL is noted.

125-05+/125-25+ is now key resistance. Bulls need a close above the 55-DMA to

gain breathing room and above 125-25+ to shift immediate focus to 126-04+/09.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 21-DMA Capping, 200-DMA Supporting

*RES 4: 2.386 - Hourly resistance Nov 14 

*RES 3: 2.379 - High Nov 16 

*RES 2: 2.362 - Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 2.351 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.324 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.310 - Low Nov 28 

*SUP 2: 2.305 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.282 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the 21-DMA capping to start the new week and

pressure remaining on the key 2.273-3.305 support region where 100 & 200-DMAs

are noted. Bears need a close below 2.273 to confirm breaks and shift immediate

focus to 2.207. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above 2.386 hint at a move back to 2.477 with above 2.419

confirming.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3601.45-3645.10 Resistance Region Remains Key 

*RES 4: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3606.93 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 3601.45 High Nov 13 

*RES 1: 3592.97 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3583.49

*SUP 1: 3559.13 Low Nov 28 

*SUP 2: 3545.07 Low Nov 23 

*SUP 3: 3536.21 Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: 3519.35 Low Nov 15

*COMMENTARY: Pops above the 55-DMA lacked follow through in past weeks. The

3601.45-3642.10 resistance region is key. Bulls need a close above this region

to confirm breaks of 21 & 55-DMAs with overall focus returning to tests of 2017

highs. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on 3497.29-3536.21 where 100

(3534.70) and 200 (3518.09) DMAs are situated. Below 3497.29 then shifts focus

to 3363.68 Aug lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]