MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bounces From 21-DMA

*RES 4: 163.98 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)

*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)

*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11

*RES 1: 163.64 High Dec 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.44

*SUP 1: 163.16 Hourly support Dec 13

*SUP 2: 162.91 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5

*SUP 4: 162.54 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Monday's fresh 6mth highs found support

around the 21-DMA before an aggressive recovery Wednesday that retains bullish

focus on 163.64-98 where a bull channel top is noted. The Bollinger top (163.85)

remains the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 163.16 to

pressure 162.54-91 where the bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the 21-DMA

are located. Below the channel base initially targets 161.47-162.05.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 132.74 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias

*RES 4: 132.850 Low May 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 132.740 High Dec 7 

*RES 2: 132.707 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 132.620 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.530

*SUP 1: 132.400 Alternating support/resistance

*SUP 2: 132.290 Low Dec 13

*SUP 3: 132.250 Low Dec 4

*SUP 4: 132.228 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21-DMA (132.411) found support ahead of the

55-DMA with pressure returning to the 132.62-74 region as a result. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 132.74 to reconfirm a bullish bias initially

targeting the bull channel top (133.010). Bears now look for a close below the

55-DMA to pressure layers of support 131.860-132.089 where the bull channel base

(132.089) and 100-DMA (131.880) are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.190-240 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 112.325 High Apr 18 

*RES 3: 112.270 Monthly high Sept 7 

*RES 2: 112.240 High Dec 7 

*RES 1: 112.190 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.180

*SUP 1: 112.129 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 112.107 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 112.095 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30

*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through on dips back towards key MAs 112.095-129

sees pressure on the key 112.190-240 resistance region. Bulls still need a close

above 112.190 to ease bearish pressure and above 112.240 to reconfirm focus on

112.270-325. Modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for bulls. In saying

that, bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes

and confirm immediate pressure back on the double daily bottom at 112.025.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through

*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 3: 125.60 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 125.21 High Sept 15 

*RES 1: 125.08 High Dec 11

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.93

*SUP 1: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 2: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 123.75 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Friday's dip below the 55-DMA resulted in fresh

3mth highs Tuesday with bulls focused on 125.21-60 where the daily bull channel

top is situated. The Bollinger top (125.05) remains a concern for bulls &

continues to limit follow through. Layers of support in place see bears needing

a close below 124.22 to ease bullish pressure and return focus to 123.62-75

where the 55-DMA and last week's low are found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.450 Targets 200-DMA

*RES 4: 99.484 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.436 100-DMA

*RES 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 11 - 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.420

*SUP 1: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 3: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*SUP 4: 99.369 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.370-410 came to an end Friday with a break

higher although hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is less than ideal. In saying

that, bulls focus on 99.436-450 where the 100-DMA is situated. Support layers

are building with bears needing a close below 99.390 to confirm a break of the

21-DMA (99.399) and shift focus back to 99.350-370 where the 55-DMA is located.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.320-325 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Monthly Highs Oct & Nov & Dec (so far)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.307 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the 100.320 resistance, bulls have so

far failed to produce the close above 100.325 needed to shift focus to

100.340-380 last seen in Sept/Oct 2016. The dips below the 21-DMA (100.313) lack

follow through with bears now needing a close below 100.305 to ease bullish

pressure and shift initial focus to 100.295-296 where the 100-DMA is situated.

The Bollinger top (100.320) remains a concern for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above Channel Top

*RES 4: 125-06+ Monthly high Nov 8 

*RES 3: 125-00  High Nov 28 

*RES 2: 124-24+ Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 124-21+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 124-16 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 124-13  Hourly breakout level Dec 13

*SUP 2: 124-05  Hourly support Dec 13

*SUP 3: 123-29  Low Dec 13

*SUP 4: 123-27  Lows Oct 25 & 27

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 124-21+/24+ resistance region where

the 55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. Bulls now look for a close above

the channel top to shift immediate focus to 125-00/07+ where the 100-DMA is

located. Support layers are building and adding to bullish confidence. Bears now

need a close below 124-13 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA and below 124-05 to

reconfirm focus on the key 123-27/29 support region.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns to 2.273-303

*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30 

*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13 

*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13 

*RES 1: 2.369 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.362 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.343 - Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 2.303 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.289 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13

*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in

a sell-off and bears focused on the 2.273-303 region where key DMAs and Oct low

are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a

close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to

2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a

move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3497.29 & 3642.10 Levels Remain Key 

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 1: 3601.44 55-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3581.75

*SUP 1: 3570.80 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3558.50 Low Dec 7 

*SUP 3: 3547.56 Hourly resistance Dec 6 now support 

*SUP 4: 3530.59 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support emerged on dips back towards the 200-DMA and weekly bull

channel base (3526.37) last week although follow through remains lacking above

the 55-DMA. Bulls need a close above 3642.10 to confirm traction above the bear

channel top (3592.78), 55-DMA & Nov 10 high, initially targeting 2017 highs.

Below 3497.29 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and the weekly bull

channel base, with below 3467.78 to target 3363.68-3397.27.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]