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Free AccessMNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis
14 December 2017
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Bounces From 21-DMA
*RES 4: 163.98 Daily Bull channel top (off Sept low)
*RES 3: 163.89 Low June 1 now resistance (Cont)
*RES 2: 163.78 High Dec 11
*RES 1: 163.64 High Dec 12
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 163.44
*SUP 1: 163.16 Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 2: 162.91 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5
*SUP 4: 162.54 Daily Bull channel base (off Oct 25 low)
*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from Monday's fresh 6mth highs found support
around the 21-DMA before an aggressive recovery Wednesday that retains bullish
focus on 163.64-98 where a bull channel top is noted. The Bollinger top (163.85)
remains the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below 163.16 to
pressure 162.54-91 where the bull channel base off Oct 25 lows and the 21-DMA
are located. Below the channel base initially targets 161.47-162.05.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 132.74 To Reconfirm Bullish Bias
*RES 4: 132.850 Low May 30 now resistance
*RES 3: 132.740 High Dec 7
*RES 2: 132.707 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 132.620 High Dec 11
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.530
*SUP 1: 132.400 Alternating support/resistance
*SUP 2: 132.290 Low Dec 13
*SUP 3: 132.250 Low Dec 4
*SUP 4: 132.228 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The dip below the 21-DMA (132.411) found support ahead of the
55-DMA with pressure returning to the 132.62-74 region as a result. Bulls
continue to look for a close above 132.74 to reconfirm a bullish bias initially
targeting the bull channel top (133.010). Bears now look for a close below the
55-DMA to pressure layers of support 131.860-132.089 where the bull channel base
(132.089) and 100-DMA (131.880) are noted.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.190-240 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 112.325 High Apr 18
*RES 3: 112.270 Monthly high Sept 7
*RES 2: 112.240 High Dec 7
*RES 1: 112.190 High Dec 11
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.180
*SUP 1: 112.129 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 112.107 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 112.095 100-WMA
*SUP 4: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30
*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through on dips back towards key MAs 112.095-129
sees pressure on the key 112.190-240 resistance region. Bulls still need a close
above 112.190 to ease bearish pressure and above 112.240 to reconfirm focus on
112.270-325. Modestly O/B daily studies are less than ideal for bulls. In saying
that, bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes
and confirm immediate pressure back on the double daily bottom at 112.025.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through
*RES 4: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 125.60 Daily Bull channel top
*RES 2: 125.21 High Sept 15
*RES 1: 125.08 High Dec 11
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.93
*SUP 1: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support
*SUP 2: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: 123.75 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from Friday's dip below the 55-DMA resulted in fresh
3mth highs Tuesday with bulls focused on 125.21-60 where the daily bull channel
top is situated. The Bollinger top (125.05) remains a concern for bulls &
continues to limit follow through. Layers of support in place see bears needing
a close below 124.22 to ease bullish pressure and return focus to 123.62-75
where the 55-DMA and last week's low are found.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Above 99.450 Targets 200-DMA
*RES 4: 99.484 200-DMA
*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.436 100-DMA
*RES 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 11 - 13
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.420
*SUP 1: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 2: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*SUP 3: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29
*SUP 4: 99.369 55-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 99.370-410 came to an end Friday with a break
higher although hesitation ahead of the 100-DMA is less than ideal. In saying
that, bulls focus on 99.436-450 where the 100-DMA is situated. Support layers
are building with bears needing a close below 99.390 to confirm a break of the
21-DMA (99.399) and shift focus back to 99.350-370 where the 55-DMA is located.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.320-325 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance
*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016
*RES 2: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016
*RES 1: 100.320 - Monthly Highs Oct & Nov & Dec (so far)
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320
*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12
*SUP 2: 100.307 - 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1
*COMMENTARY: Despite pressure returning to the 100.320 resistance, bulls have so
far failed to produce the close above 100.325 needed to shift focus to
100.340-380 last seen in Sept/Oct 2016. The dips below the 21-DMA (100.313) lack
follow through with bears now needing a close below 100.305 to ease bullish
pressure and shift initial focus to 100.295-296 where the 100-DMA is situated.
The Bollinger top (100.320) remains a concern for bulls.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above Channel Top
*RES 4: 125-06+ Monthly high Nov 8
*RES 3: 125-00 High Nov 28
*RES 2: 124-24+ Daily Bear channel top
*RES 1: 124-21+ 55-DMA
*PRICE: 124-16 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 124-13 Hourly breakout level Dec 13
*SUP 2: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13
*SUP 3: 123-29 Low Dec 13
*SUP 4: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27
*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 124-21+/24+ resistance region where
the 55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. Bulls now look for a close above
the channel top to shift immediate focus to 125-00/07+ where the 100-DMA is
located. Support layers are building and adding to bullish confidence. Bears now
need a close below 124-13 to ease pressure on the 55-DMA and below 124-05 to
reconfirm focus on the key 123-27/29 support region.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Focus Returns to 2.273-303
*RES 4: 2.437 - High Nov 30
*RES 3: 2.426 - High Dec 13
*RES 2: 2.398 - Hourly resistance Dec 13
*RES 1: 2.369 - Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.362 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.343 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 2: 2.303 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 2.289 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 2.273 - Monthly Low Oct 13
*COMMENTARY: The 2.437 resistance remains key with topside failures resulting in
a sell-off and bears focused on the 2.273-303 region where key DMAs and Oct low
are located. Layers of resistance building are now weighing with bulls needing a
close above 2.398 to ease bearish pressure and return initial focus to
2.426-437. Overall above 2.437 targets 2017 highs and below 2.273 hints at a
move back to 2017 lows at 2.016 with below 2.207 to confirm.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3497.29 & 3642.10 Levels Remain Key
*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance
*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance
*RES 2: 3620.01 High Nov 10
*RES 1: 3601.44 55-DMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3581.75
*SUP 1: 3570.80 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 3558.50 Low Dec 7
*SUP 3: 3547.56 Hourly resistance Dec 6 now support
*SUP 4: 3530.59 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Support emerged on dips back towards the 200-DMA and weekly bull
channel base (3526.37) last week although follow through remains lacking above
the 55-DMA. Bulls need a close above 3642.10 to confirm traction above the bear
channel top (3592.78), 55-DMA & Nov 10 high, initially targeting 2017 highs.
Below 3497.29 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and the weekly bull
channel base, with below 3467.78 to target 3363.68-3397.27.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.