MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

20 December 2017

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Focus Shifts To 161.31-93 Region

*RES 4: 163.20 Hourly support Dec 19 now resistance

*RES 3: 163.04 21-DMA

*RES 2: 162.79 Hourly support Dec 5 now resistance

*RES 1: 162.66 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 162.49

*SUP 1: 162.15 Low Dec 19, Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: 161.93 Low Nov 30

*SUP 3: 161.66 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 161.49 Monthly Low Nov 14

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of last week's high resulted in a sharp sell-off

and bearish close that sees focus now on 161.31-93 where the bull channel base,

monthly low and 100-DMA are noted. The Bollinger base is the key concern for

bears with potential to limit follow through. Layers of resistance accumulating

are weighing. Bulls now need a close above 162.79 to ease immediate bearish

pressure and above 163.20 to shift focus back to 163.78 Dec highs so far.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bearish Focus Shifts To 131.610

*RES 4: 132.550 Highs Dec 13 & 15 

*RES 3: 132.386 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 132.240 Low Dec 18 now resistance 

*RES 1: 132.100 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 132.030

*SUP 1: 131.860 High Oct 24 now support

*SUP 2: 131.739 55-WMA

*SUP 3: 131.610 Monthly Low Oct 6

*SUP 4: 131.542 Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off to start the new week leaves the contract looking

heavy with losses Tuesday resulting in a bearish close and focus now on tests of

the 131.610 Oct low. Daily studies are well placed for losses before O/S is an

issue. Layers of resistance left in the wake add to bearish confidence. Bulls

now need a close above 132.240 to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA to

shift focus to 132.550-740.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Triple Daily Bottom Now In Place

*RES 4: 112.190 High Dec 11 

*RES 3: 112.125 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.111 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 112.045

*SUP 1: 112.025 Monthly Lows Oct 26 & Nov 30, Low Dec 19 

*SUP 2: 112.020 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 111.945 Low Aug 8 

*SUP 4: 111.855 Low July 21

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 55-DMA has now seen a test of 112.025 with a

triple daily bottom now in place. Bears continue to look for a close below

112.025 to confirm a shift in immediate focus to 111.855-945. The Bollinger base

remains the key concern for bears and limits follow through. Key DMAs remain

clustered 112.111-125 with bulls needing a close above the 100-DMA to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and to shift focus back to 112.190-240.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Bullish Pressure Eased

*RES 4: 126.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 126.00 Low Sept 13 now resistance 

*RES 2: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 1: 125.30 Low Dec 15 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.96

*SUP 1: 124.50 Hourly resistance Dec 11 now support 

*SUP 2: 124.22 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: 123.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs printed Friday although the pop above the bull

channel top lacked follow through resulting in a sell-off this week that sees

bullish pressure eased and bears looking for a close below 124.22 to return

focus to 123.62-91 where the 55-DMA and weekly lows are found. Initial

resistance is now noted at 125.30 with bulls needing a close above to return

focus to 125.69 Dec highs so far.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.450 Continues To Cap

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.482 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.440

*SUP 1: 99.430 Highs Dec 12 & 13

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support, 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on 99.450 with bulls taking comfort in the closes

above the 100-DMA. Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.450 to shift

focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted. Support layers

remain with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA (99.410) to ease bullish

pressure and below 99.370 to hint at a move back to 99.300-310 with below 99.350

confirming.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305-310 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.331 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.320

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12, 55-DMA

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.299 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: The failure to gain traction above 100.325 is less than ideal for

bulls given daily studies correcting from modestly O/B levels. The 100.305-310

support region is key this week. Bears need a close below 100.305 to ease

bullish pressure and shift focus to 100.294-299 where the bull channel base and

100-DMA are located. Bulls still need a close above 100.325 to initially

pressure the bull channel top and then target 100.340-380.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Focus Shifts To 122-20+/123-07+

*RES 4: 124-13+ High Dec 18

*RES 3: 124-05 Hourly support Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 123-29+ Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 123-27 Lows Oct 25 & 27 now resistance

*PRICE: 123-24+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-20 Low Dec 19

*SUP 2: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 3: 123-04+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 122-20+ Monthly Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Repeated topside failures ahead of the key 124-18+/23+ resistance

region where the bear channel top and 55-DMA are located resulted in a break of

key supports and bears now focused on 122-20+/123-07+ where monthly lows and the

bear channel base are noted. Daily studies are well placed for losses but the

Bollinger base (123-24+) is a concern. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls needing a close above 124-05 to return focus to 124-18+/23+.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Above 2.477 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: 2.628 - 2017 High Mar 13 

*RES 3: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 2: 2.536 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 1: 2.477 - Monthly High Oct 27

*PRICE: 2.452 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.443 - Hourly support Dec 19 

*SUP 2: 2.423 - Hourly support Dec 19a 

*SUP 3: 2.401 - Hourly resistance Dec 19 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.380 - High Dec 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the channel base failed to produce a break lower with

the correction higher seeing immediate pressure back on 2.477 Oct highs. Bulls

need a close above this level to confirm overall focus on tests of 2017 highs.

Daily studies are well placed for further topside. Layers of support building

add support to the bullish case. Bears now look for a close below 2.423 to ease

immediate bullish pressure.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Remains Capped Ahead Of 3620.01-3642.10 

*RES 4: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3642.10 Low Nov 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 1: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3582.22

*SUP 1: 3562.66 Hourly resistance Dec 18 now support 

*SUP 2: 3542.85 Low Dec 15 

*SUP 3: 3535.97 Weekly Bull channel base (Off July 2016 low) 

*SUP 4: 3534.13 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows again confirmed

significance but the index remains capped ahead of 3620.01-3642.10. Bulls need a

close above 3620.01 to gain traction topside and above 3642.10 to confirm focus

on tests of 2017 highs. Time spent above the 55-DMA (3600.38) was brief. Bears

still need a close below 3562.66 to shift pressure back to 3519.35-3535.97 where

the 200-DMA and bull channel base are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]