MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

3 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Closes Below Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: 162.75 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.37 High Dec 27

*RES 2: 161.86 High Dec 29

*RES 1: 161.53 Hourly resistance Jan 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.33

*SUP 1: 161.18 Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 3: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the daily bull channel base took its toll

with a close below that now sees bears focused on 159.78-160.26 with below

160.80 to add weight to their case. O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base

(161.17) remain key concerns for bears with potential to limit follow through.

Bulls now need a close above 161.86 to ease bearish pressure and above 162.37 to

hint at a move back to 163.78.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 131.740 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 132.247 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.998 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 131.740 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.550

*SUP 1: 131.430 Low Dec 27

*SUP 2: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 3: 131.328 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 131.248 Weekly Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (131.351) remain the key

concern for bears given the bounce from the bull channel base last Wednesday.

Bulls continue to look for a close above 131.740 to ease bearish pressure and

above the 100-DMA to hint at a correction back to 132.159-250. While 131.740

caps bears remain focused on 130.920-131.350 where Nov lows are noted.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.035 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.080 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.955

*SUP 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low eased bearish pressure

with bulls now needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to 112.080-120 where

key DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case

for a bigger correction. Bears need a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on

111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated. The Bollinger base (111.898) remains a

key concern for bears recently limiting follow through.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Focus Returns To Bull Channel Base

*RES 4: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 3: 124.90 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*RES 2: 124.64 Hourly resistance Jan 2 

*RES 1: 124.35 Hourly support Jan 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.22

*SUP 1: 124.05 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: 123.71 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 123.68 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 4: 123.62 Low Dec 8

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble Dec highs on the bounce from ahead of the 55-DMA

has resulted in a dip below the 55-DMA (124.14) and the contract looking heavy

once more. Bears now need a close below 124.05 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

and below 123.62 to confirm a break of the bull channel base and potentially

target 122.44. Bulls now need a close above 124.90 to ease renewed bearish

pressure.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.410 & 99.450 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.445

*SUP 1: 99.423 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Failure to take out 99.450 is a concern for bulls with the

Bollinger band top (99.462) limiting follow through and daily studies correcting

from modestly O/B. Bears need a close below 99.410 to ease bullish pressure and

below 99.370 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA (99.390) and hint at a move back

to 99.300-310 with below 99.350 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 99.450 to

shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Key Support Holding Firm

*RES 4: 100.380 - Low Sept 27 2016 now resistance 

*RES 3: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 2: 100.334 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.302 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears now needing a

close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to

hint at a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls

need a close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top

to shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6

*RES 3: 124-16+ Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 124-13+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 124-01+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 123-22+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-17+ Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 123-12+ Low Dec 21

*SUP 3: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 4: 122-31+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from Dec lows the contract has remained capped

ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and return focus to layers of resistance 124-13+/23

where the 55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. While the 21-DMA caps

immediate bearish focus remains on tests of the bear channel base coming in

around 122-31+ today.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.530 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 2.481 - High Jan 2

*PRICE: 2.462 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.411 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.381 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year. Bulls now look for a close above 2.504 to confirm

focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain with

bears now needing a close below the 55-DMA to hint at a test of the 200-DMA with

below 2.344 to confirm. The Bollinger top (2.513) remains the key concern for

bulls.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 3467.94

*RES 4: 3551.71 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 3537.96 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 

*RES 1: 3508.37 High Jan 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3490.19

*SUP 1: 3467.94 High Sept 7 now support 

*SUP 2: 3430.25 Daily Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: 3396.69 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: 3363.68 Monthly Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: The close below the weekly bull channel base off July 2016 lows and

200-DMA added weight to the bearish with the close below 3519.35 confirming a

bearish bias and below 3467.94 to target 3363.68 Aug lows. Layers of resistance

accumulating add to bearish confidence with bulls needing a close above the

200-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 3620.01 to gain traction topside.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]