MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

5 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) 161.86 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 162.61 21-DMA

*RES 3: 162.37 High Dec 27

*RES 2: 161.86 High Dec 29

*RES 1: 161.82 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 161.68

*SUP 1: 161.18 Low Jan 2

*SUP 2: 160.80 High Oct 25 now support

*SUP 3: 160.26 Monthly Low Oct 2

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to the daily bull channel base took its toll

with closes below that sees bears focused on 159.78-160.26 with below 160.80 to

add weight to their case. O/S daily studies looking to correct and the Bollinger

base (160.94) remain key concerns for bears with potential to limit follow

through. Bulls still need a close above 161.86 to ease bearish pressure and

above 162.37 to hint at a move back to 163.78.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.760 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 132.220 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 132.012 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 131.880 Hourly support Dec 20 now resistance

*RES 1: 131.760 High Dec 21

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.690

*SUP 1: 131.430 Low Dec 27

*SUP 2: 131.350 Monthly Low Nov 30 (cont)

*SUP 3: 131.267 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 131.247 Weekly Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base (131.249) remain the key

concern for bears given the bounce from the bear channel base last week. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 131.760 to ease bearish pressure and above

the 100-DMA to shift immediate focus to 132.220-240. While 131.760 caps bears

remain focused on 130.920-131.350 where Nov lows are noted with below 131.43 to

add weight to the case.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 112.000-035 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 112.075 Hourly resistance Dec 19 

*RES 3: 112.068 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 1: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.965

*SUP 1: 111.915 Hourly support Dec 27 

*SUP 2: 111.850 Low Dec 27 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low July 6 (cont) 

*SUP 4: 111.805 2017 Low June 28

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive bounce ahead of the 2017 low eased bearish pressure

with bulls needing a close above 112.035 to shift focus to 112.068-111 where key

DMAs are situated. Correcting O/S studies add support to the bullish case for a

bigger correction. Bears need a close below 111.915 to maintain focus on

111.805-840 where 2017 lows are situated. The Bollinger base (111.875) remains a

key concern for bears recently limiting follow through.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Broad Sideways Trading Continues

*RES 4: 125.99 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 125.69 High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 125.41 High Dec 27 

*RES 1: 124.96 High Jan 3

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 124.88

*SUP 1: 124.50 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 2: 124.05 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 3: 123.91 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 123.73 Daily Bull channel base

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to whip around within a broad 124.05-125.41

range. Bears continue to look for a close below 123.62 to confirm a break of the

bull channel base and to shift overall focus to tests of 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls

need a close above 125.69 to initially pressure the bull channel top and hint at

a test of 126.00. Daily studies are at largely neutral levels and Bollinger

bands relatively flat.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.410 & 99.450 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.480 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.478 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.450

*SUP 1: 99.429 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the key 99.450 resistance level. Bulls continue

to look for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.478-520 where the 55-WMA

and 200-DMA are noted. The 21-DMA remains initial support with bears now needing

a close below to gain breathing room. A close below 99.390 is needed to confirm

a break of the 55-DMA (99.395) and hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Key Support Holding Firm For Now

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.334 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 1: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 2: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 3: 100.303 - 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Pressure remains on the 100.310 support with bears now needing a

close below to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to

hint at a move back to 100.285. The 100.325 resistance level remains key. Bulls

need a close above 100.325 to reconfirm dominance and above the bull channel top

to shift focus to 100.340-380 last seen in 2016.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 124-23 High Dec 6

*RES 3: 124-15+ Daily Bear channel top

*RES 2: 124-11+ 55-DMA

*RES 1: 123-31+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 123-21+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 123-17+ Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 123-12+ Low Dec 21

*SUP 3: 123-07+ High Mar 13 now support

*SUP 4: 122-29+ Daily Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Despite recovering from Dec lows the contract has remained capped

ahead of the 21-DMA. Bulls look for a close above the 21-DMA to confirm an

easing of bearish pressure and return focus to layers of resistance 124-11+/23

where the 55-DMA and bear channel top are situated. While the 21-DMA caps

immediate bearish focus remains on tests of the bear channel base coming in

around 122-29+ today.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 55-DMA To Shift Focus Lower

*RES 4: 2.544 - High Mar 17 

*RES 3: 2.530 - Weekly Bear channel top (Off 2014 high) 

*RES 2: 2.504 - High Dec 21 

*RES 1: 2.487 - High Jan 4

*PRICE: 2.458 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.419 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.386 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.344 - Low Dec 14 

*SUP 4: 2.297 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support ahead of the 21-DMA providing a

bounce to start the new year. Bulls continue to look for a close above 2.504 to

confirm focus on tests of 2016 & 2017 highs 2.629-641. Layers of support remain

and hint at a test of the 200-DMA with below 2.344 to confirm with bears now

needing a close below the 55-DMA to end bullish hopes.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3620.01 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3620.01 High Nov 10 

*RES 3: 3597.05 Hourly support Dec 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3589.09 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 3587.40 Daily Bear channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3568.88

*SUP 1: 3540.26 Hourly support Jan 4 

*SUP 2: 3524.31 Hourly resistance Dec 29 now support 

*SUP 3: 3508.37 Hourly resistance Feb 2 now support 

*SUP 4: 3467.78 High Sept 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the recovery from the week's lows that sees

focus back on layers of resistance 3587.40-3620.01 where the bear channel top

and 55-DMA are located. Bulls look for a close above 3620.01 to gain traction

topside and shift overall focus back to 2017 highs (3708.82). Correcting O/S

studies add support to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 3524.31 to

ease pressure on resistance layers.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]