MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

22 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Targeting 200-WMA

*RES 4: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 3: 161.31 21-DMA

*RES 2: 160.97 Highs Jan 16 & 17

*RES 1: 160.85 High Jan 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.56

*SUP 1: 160.30 Lows Jan 15 & 18

*SUP 2: 160.11 2018 Low Jan 12

*SUP 3: 160.08 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 159.78 Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: Failure to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows saw the

significance of 160.97 confirmed with bulls needing a close above to ease

bearish pressure and shift focus to 161.55-162.37 where key DMAs are situated.

Above 162.37 is needed to target 163.78. The sell-off reconfirms immediate focus

back on 160.11 2018 lows and overall focus on 158.47-159.78 where the 200-WMA is

noted. Closes below the 200-WMA were last seen briefly in 2011.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 131.340 Resistance Confirms Significance

*RES 4: 131.720 High Jan 11 

*RES 3: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 2: 131.496 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.340 Hourly resistance Jan 11, High Jan 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.270

*SUP 1: 131.220 Hourly resistance Jan 19 now support

*SUP 2: 131.050 Low Jan 18

*SUP 3: 130.983 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 130.920 2017 Low Sept 28, 2018 Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The dip to 130.92 in past weeks has so far lacked follow through

with the contract pressuring 131.340 last week. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 131.340 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.520 to pressure

131.720-880. While 131.340 caps bears remain focused on the close below 2017/18

lows needed to confirm focus on 130.390-580.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3 

*RES 3: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 111.941 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 111.940 Lows Jan 4 & 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.935

*SUP 1: 111.910 Hourly resistance Jan 19 now support 

*SUP 2: 111.885 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows has seen the

contract recover lost ground and currently pressure the 21-DMA. Bulls now need a

close above the 21-DMA to confirm an easing of bearish pressure, shifting

immediate focus to 111.985-000 and overall focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 112.061-079.

Bears now look for a close below 111.910 to ease pressure on the 21-DMA and

return immediate focus to retests of 2018 lows.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 123.12 To Confirm Focus On 122.44

*RES 4: 124.96 High Jan 3 & 8 

*RES 3: 124.50 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 124.20 High Jan 16 

*RES 1: 123.82 High Jan 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 123.60

*SUP 1: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 

*SUP 2: 123.12 Monthly Low Nov 30 

*SUP 3: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25 

*SUP 4: 121.26 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs last week with the

sell-off Thursday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. Bears still look for a

close below 123.12 to confirm focus on 122.44 Oct lows. Bulls need a close above

123.82 to ease bearish pressure and above 124.50 to confirm focus on 125.41-69.

Daily studies correcting from O/S and the Bollinger base (123.31) remain key

concerns for bears.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.450 Resistance Holding Its Ground

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.478 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.477 55-WMA

*RES 1: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.445

*SUP 1: 99.435 Low Jan 12

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*SUP 4: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm. Bulls continue to look

for a close above 99.450 to shift focus to 99.477-520 where the 55-WMA and

200-DMA are noted. Dips below the 21-DMA (99.442) lack follow through with bears

needing a close below 99.435 to gain breathing room. A close below the 100-DMA

(99.407) remains needed to hint at a move back to 99.300-310.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.315 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.319 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17 & 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA holding firm with bears needing a

close below 100.305 now to hint at a move back to 100.285. The pops above 21 &

55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls now needing a close above 100.315 to ease

bearish pressure and shift initial focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies at

modestly O/S levels and looking to correct remains the key concern for bears.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Initial Focus On 120-25+/121-22+

*RES 4: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16

*RES 3: 122-30  Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 2: 122-22  Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 1: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-05 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 2: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation has taken its toll with repeated fresh 2018 and

6+ year lows that see bears focused on 120-25+/121-22+. The Bollinger base

(122-06+) is a concern for bears and recently limited follow through. Bulls now

need a close above 122-22 to ease bearish pressure and hint at a correction back

to 123-05+/123-20. Bears still need a close below 121-22+ to add weight to their

case.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.692 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 1: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014

*PRICE: 2.654 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.613 - Low Jan 19 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.541 - Hourly support Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+ year highs see immediate bullish focus on 2.692

last seen mid 2014. Bulls look for a close above 2.692 to confirm focus on

2.763-821 where the daily bull channel top situated. O/B studies and the

Bollinger top (2.651) remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need a close below

2.613 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below 2.571 to hint at a correction

back to 2.489-522 where the 21-DMA is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bulls Now Focused On 3708.82-3714.26

*RES 4: 3714.26 Monthly High July 20 2015 

*RES 3: 3708.82 2017 High Nov 1 

*RES 2: 3670.47 Low Nov 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3668.56 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3649.07

*SUP 1: 3628.13 High Jan 18 now support 

*SUP 2: 3603.30 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: 3587.91 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3570.51 Low Jan 5

*COMMENTARY: The close above the much talked about 3642.10 resistance adds to

bullish confidence and sees focus shift to 3708.82-3714.26 where 2017 and

monthly highs are situated. Bears now look for a close below 3628.13 to signal a

false break, easing bullish pressure and seeing focus back on layers of support

3546.81-3587.91 where the 55-DMA is located. A close below the 200-DMA is needed

to confirm focus on 3467.78 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]