MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Lacks Follow Through Below Bollinger base

*RES 4: 161.56 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 3: 161.13 High Jan 23

*RES 2: 160.85 High Jan 24

*RES 1: 160.32 Low Jan 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 160.28

*SUP 1: 159.99 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 159.84 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 159.66 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 158.73 2017 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: The sharp sell-off Thursday resulted in fresh 2018 & 9mth lows

although the lack of follow through is less than idea. Bears now focus on tests

of 158.55-73 where 2017 lows and the 200-WMA are situated. Today bulls look for

a close above 160.32 to gain breathing room and above 161.13 to confirm breaks

of the 21-DMA (161.04) & bear channel top (160.93), shifting focus to

161.55-162.08 where 55 (162.08) & 100 (161.75) DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 131.520

*RES 4: 131.388 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.380 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 131.290 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.940

*SUP 1: 130.860 Hourly support Jan 25

*SUP 2: 130.750 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 130.390 Monthly Low Nov 14 2016

*SUP 4: 130.380 2016 Low Mar 10

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 lows have lacked a little follow through with the

Bollinger base noted at 130.888. Layers of resistance accumulating add weight to

the bearish case with bears now focused on 130.380-390 where 2016 lows are

situated. Bulls now need a close above 131.050 to gain breathing room and above

31.520 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and pressure 131.720-880.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears In Control While 111.950 Caps

*RES 4: 112.000 High Dec 21 & Jan 3 

*RES 3: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 1: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.895

*SUP 1: 111.905 Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 111.855 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 111.844 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 111.830 2018 Low Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The contract continues to flirt with the 21-DMA (111.927) after the

lack of topside follow through on the break of 111.940. Bulls now look for a

close above 111.950 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA, shifting immediate focus

to 111.985-000 and overall focus to 55 & 100-DMAs 112.044-065. Immediate bearish

focus remains on 111.750 May 2016 monthly lows while 111.950 caps.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 122.44 To Confirm Focus On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 123.82 High Jan 19 

*RES 3: 123.43 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 123.26 2018 Low Jan 12 now resistance 

*RES 1: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.85

*SUP 1: 122.61 2018 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 2: 122.44 Monthly Low Oct 25 

*SUP 3: 121.32 200-WMA 

*SUP 4: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016

*COMMENTARY: The contract remained capped ahead of key DMAs last week with the

sell-off Wednesday leaving H18 looking a little heavy. The closes below 123.12

sees immediate focus on the close below 122.44 needed to confirm focus on the

200-WMA and then the May 2015 monthly low beneath. Layers of resistance are

again weighing with bulls needing a close above 123.26 to ease bearish pressure

and above 123.43 to initially pressure 123.82.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Pressure Returns to 55-DMA

*RES 4: 99.520 High Sept 14

*RES 3: 99.476 55-WMA, 200-DMA

*RES 2: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.444 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425

*SUP 1: 99.420 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.401 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The 99.450 resistance level has held firm with topside failures

finally taking their toll and Thursday's bearish close seeing focus back to 55 &

100-DMAs. Bears now look for a close below the 100-DMA to target 99.300.310 with

below 99.390 to add weight to the case. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.476-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) 100.305 & 100.315 Levels Key

*RES 4: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 3: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 2: 100.318 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 100.315 - High Jan 17 & 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 2: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 4: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.306) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

The pops above 21 & 55-DMAs lack follow through with bulls still needing a close

above 100.315 to confirm a break, ease bearish pressure and shift initial focus

to 100.320-325. Bollinger bands now narrowing hints at a break out in the short

term.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 122-20 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 3: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA

*RES 2: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 1: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-13 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 122-09+ Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support

*SUP 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25

*SUP 3: 121-31 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 4: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year

low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The

122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above to hint at a correction

back to 123-01+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated. Bears remain

focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below 121-31 to

gain breathing room.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Rejection A Concern

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: 2.650 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.624 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.539 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2.692 resistance remains a concern for

bulls with momentum divergence noted and daily studies correcting from very O/B

levels weighing. Bears now need a close below 2.609 to ease bullish pressure and

2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-539 where the 21-DMA (2.539) is

noted. Above 2.692 to is needed to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where the daily

bull channel top (2.782) is situated.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Correcting O/B Studies Weighing

*RES 4: 3687.29 2018 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 3674.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 3659.33 High Jan 25 

*RES 1: 3637.40 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3630.15

*SUP 1: 3614.06 Low Jan 25 

*SUP 2: 3603.47 Low Jan 15 

*SUP 3: 3597.12 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 3570.51 Low Jan 5

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on fresh 2018 and 2mth highs has

been followed up with a correction lower that leaves the index looking a little

heavy when combined with daily studies correcting from O/B. Bears now look for a

close below the 200-DMA to add weight to the case for a correction back to 2018

lows. Bulls now need a close above 3659.33 to pressure 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]