Free Trial

MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 February 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis
Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts
BUND TECHS: (H18) Gaining Traction Below 200-WMA
*RES 4: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31
*RES 2: 158.88 Hourly resistance Jan 31
*RES 1: 158.63 200-WMA
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.16
*SUP 1: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015
*SUP 2: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015
*SUP 3: 156.55 Weekly bear channel base
*SUP 4: 154.81 Monthly Low Nov 2015
*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grows as the contract gains traction below the
200-WMA. Bears now focus on the 156.55-78 region where the weekly bear channel
base is situated. Consolidation below the 200-WMA would see overall focus on
148.23 2015 lows. Bulls need a close above 158.88 to gain breathing room and
above 159.66 to shift focus to 160.36-161.11 where the daily bear channel top &
21-DMA are noted.
BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 130.630
*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 
*RES 3: 130.950 High Jan 26 
*RES 2: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 
*RES 1: 130.630 Low Jan 26 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.380
*SUP 1: 130.290 2018 Low Feb 1
*SUP 2: 130.213 Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support
*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows following repeated topside failures at
130.630 leave the contract looking heavy and bears now focused on 128.82-129.46
last seen in Dec 2015. Initial resistance remains at 130.630 with bulls needing
a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (131.120) to confirm
a break of the bear channel top (131.111) targeting a correction back to
131.450-520.
SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Overall Bearish Focus On 200-WMA
*RES 4: 111.950 High Jan 23 
*RES 3: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 
*RES 2: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26 
*RES 1: 111.855 High Feb 1
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.820
*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 
*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 
*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 
*SUP 4: 111.624 200-WMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 21-DMA (111.893) last week
with Monday's sell-off resulting in 2018 & 18mth lows. The lack of follow
through is less than ideal with bears focused on the 200-WMA and below 111.750
to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above 111.855 to ease
bearish pressure and above 111.900 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear
channel top (111.870) to shift initial focus to 111.950-000.
GILT TECHS: (H18) Supported Ahead Of 200-WMA For Now
*RES 4: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance 
*RES 3: 122.65 High Jan 30 
*RES 2: 122.22 Hourly support Jan 31 now resistance 
*RES 1: 121.87 Low Jan 31 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.80
*SUP 1: 121.50 2018 Low Feb 1 
*SUP 2: 121.38 200-WMA 
*SUP 3: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016 
*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low May Apr 2016
*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined 2018 so far sees immediate pressure
on the 200-WMA with support seen emerging ahead of this level on Thursday's dip.
O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears. Resistance layers
accumulating now see bulls needing a close above 122.28 to ease immediate
bearish pressure and above 122.65 to shift focus back to 123.12-47 where the
21-DMA is found.
SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.420 Support Key Today
*RES 4: 99.474 200-DMA
*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance
*RES 2: 99.440 21-DMA
*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425
*SUP 1: 99.420 2018 Low Feb 1
*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support
*SUP 3: 99.392 100-DMA
*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8
*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA as it flirts with
the 55-DMA (99.423) and remains a little heavy. Bears now need a close below
99.420 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and below 99.390 to confirm a break of
the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above
99.450 to shift focus to 99.473-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.
EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Above100.325 Targets 100.340-341
*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 
*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 
*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 
*RES 1: 100.318 - Bollinger band top
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315
*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan
*SUP 2: 100.307 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5
*SUP 4: 100.304 - Bollinger band base
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.307) holding firm so far in
2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.
Focus has returned to the 100.320-325 region with the Bollinger top currently
limiting follow through. Bulls now look for a close above 100.325 to target
100.340-341 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering at
modestly O/B levels remains less than ideal for bulls.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-31
*RES 4: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 3: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 2: 121-22  Hourly resistance Jan 31
*RES 1: 121-10+ Low Jan 31 now resistance
*PRICE: 121-03+ @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 121-01+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 2: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011
*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows leave the contract looking offered and
pressuring the bear channel base. Bears look for a close below 120-25+ to shift
focus to the 117-29+/119-24 support region last seen in Apr 2011. O/S daily
studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 121-22 to
gain breathing room and above 121-31 to hint at a correction back to 122-14+/20
where the 21-DMA is located.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Bull Channel Top
*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 
*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 
*RES 2: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 
*RES 1: 2.806 - Daily Bull channel top
*PRICE: 2.793 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support 
*SUP 2: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 
*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 
*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26
*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year
highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.806-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014
highs. The Bollinger band top (2.800) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.
Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.754 to gain
breathing room and below 2.654 to shift focus back to 2.571-609 where the 21-DMA
(2.598) is noted.
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA
*RES 4: 3674.50 High Jan 24 
*RES 3: 3659.33 High Jan 25 
*RES 2: 3636.05 Low Jan 29 now resistance 
*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance
*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3577.35
*SUP 1: 3534.51 200-DMA 
*SUP 2: 3520.84 Low Jan 4 
*SUP 3: 3509.92 55-WMA 
*SUP 4: 3467.78 High Sept 9 now support
*COMMENTARY: Having failed to trouble 2017 highs on the recovery from 2018 lows
the index remains offered following closes below key DMAs with immediate focus
now on the 200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to the
case for a move targeting 2018 lows (3469.23). Bulls need a close above 3600.36
to gain breathing room and above 3636.05 to shift focus to 2017 & 2018 highs.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ (function appendPosts () { var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span'); policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts); policyPosts.style.display = "block"; var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0]; var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span'); dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts); dataPosts.style.display = "block"; })(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){ item.href="/core/users/email_login/"; item.innerHTML="Log In"; }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ (function appendPosts () { var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span'); policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts); policyPosts.style.display = "block"; var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0]; var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span'); dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts); dataPosts.style.display = "block"; })(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){ item.href="/core/users/email_login/"; item.innerHTML="Log In"; }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) { img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return false; }); }); document .querySelector(".site-logo img") .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return true; }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)"); window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts"); }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) { document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); let country_code = c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto"; document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); } const fetch = function (err, res) { var r = new XMLHttpRequest(); r.open("GET", err, !0), (r.responseType = "json"), (r.onload = function () { var err = r.status; res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response); }), r.send(); }; function setupCountry() { if (window.preventDuplicateExec) { return; } window.preventDuplicateExec = true; window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({ threshold: 0, firstOnly: true, oneTime: true, selector: ".signup-form", onIntersect: (entry) => { // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way: let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData"); if (!ipapiData) { fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) { console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API "); localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData)); populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData); }); } else { console.log( "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage" ); populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData)); } }, }); } setupCountry(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ /* const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container'); const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content'); const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream'); if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) { if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) { console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight); stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px'; } } */ }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) { document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); let country_code = c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto"; document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); } const fetch = function (err, res) { var r = new XMLHttpRequest(); r.open("GET", err, !0), (r.responseType = "json"), (r.onload = function () { var err = r.status; res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response); }), r.send(); }; function setupCountry() { if (window.preventDuplicateExec) { return; } window.preventDuplicateExec = true; window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({ threshold: 0, firstOnly: true, oneTime: true, selector: ".signup-form", onIntersect: (entry) => { // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way: let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData"); if (!ipapiData) { fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) { console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API "); localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData)); populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData); }); } else { console.log( "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage" ); populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData)); } }, }); } setupCountry(); });