MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

2 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Gaining Traction Below 200-WMA

*RES 4: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 2: 158.88 Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 1: 158.63 200-WMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.16

*SUP 1: 157.52 Low Dec 29 2015

*SUP 2: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 3: 156.55 Weekly bear channel base

*SUP 4: 154.81 Monthly Low Nov 2015

*COMMENTARY: Bearish confidence grows as the contract gains traction below the

200-WMA. Bears now focus on the 156.55-78 region where the weekly bear channel

base is situated. Consolidation below the 200-WMA would see overall focus on

148.23 2015 lows. Bulls need a close above 158.88 to gain breathing room and

above 159.66 to shift focus to 160.36-161.11 where the daily bear channel top &

21-DMA are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 130.630

*RES 4: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: 130.950 High Jan 26 

*RES 2: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 130.630 Low Jan 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.380

*SUP 1: 130.290 2018 Low Feb 1

*SUP 2: 130.213 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 129.460 High Dec 7 2015 now support

*SUP 4: 128.820 Monthly Low Dec 4 2015

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 2+yr lows following repeated topside failures at

130.630 leave the contract looking heavy and bears now focused on 128.82-129.46

last seen in Dec 2015. Initial resistance remains at 130.630 with bulls needing

a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 21-DMA (131.120) to confirm

a break of the bear channel top (131.111) targeting a correction back to

131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Overall Bearish Focus On 200-WMA

*RES 4: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 111.900 Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26 

*RES 1: 111.855 High Feb 1

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.820

*SUP 1: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 111.765 2018 Low Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 111.750 Monthly Low May 3 2016 

*SUP 4: 111.624 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to gain traction above the 21-DMA (111.893) last week

with Monday's sell-off resulting in 2018 & 18mth lows. The lack of follow

through is less than ideal with bears focused on the 200-WMA and below 111.750

to add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above 111.855 to ease

bearish pressure and above 111.900 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear

channel top (111.870) to shift initial focus to 111.950-000.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Supported Ahead Of 200-WMA For Now

*RES 4: 123.12 Low Nov 30 now resistance 

*RES 3: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 2: 122.22 Hourly support Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 1: 121.87 Low Jan 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.80

*SUP 1: 121.50 2018 Low Feb 1 

*SUP 2: 121.38 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016 

*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low May Apr 2016

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined 2018 so far sees immediate pressure

on the 200-WMA with support seen emerging ahead of this level on Thursday's dip.

O/S daily studies remain the key concern for bears. Resistance layers

accumulating now see bulls needing a close above 122.28 to ease immediate

bearish pressure and above 122.65 to shift focus back to 123.12-47 where the

21-DMA is found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.420 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 99.474 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.440 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425

*SUP 1: 99.420 2018 Low Feb 1

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.392 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA as it flirts with

the 55-DMA (99.423) and remains a little heavy. Bears now need a close below

99.420 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and below 99.390 to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to shift focus to 99.473-520 where the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Above100.325 Targets 100.340-341

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.318 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan

*SUP 2: 100.307 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5

*SUP 4: 100.304 - Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.307) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

Focus has returned to the 100.320-325 region with the Bollinger top currently

limiting follow through. Bulls now look for a close above 100.325 to target

100.340-341 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering at

modestly O/B levels remains less than ideal for bulls.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 121-31

*RES 4: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 3: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 2: 121-22  Hourly resistance Jan 31

*RES 1: 121-10+ Low Jan 31 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-03+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-01+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 3: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows leave the contract looking offered and

pressuring the bear channel base. Bears look for a close below 120-25+ to shift

focus to the 117-29+/119-24 support region last seen in Apr 2011. O/S daily

studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above 121-22 to

gain breathing room and above 121-31 to hint at a correction back to 122-14+/20

where the 21-DMA is located.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Pressuring Bull Channel Top

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 2: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 1: 2.806 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 2.793 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.754 - High Jan 31 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.696 - Low Jan 31 

*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support provided the base for repeated 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.806-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014

highs. The Bollinger band top (2.800) and O/B studies remain concerns for bulls.

Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below 2.754 to gain

breathing room and below 2.654 to shift focus back to 2.571-609 where the 21-DMA

(2.598) is noted.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 3674.50 High Jan 24 

*RES 3: 3659.33 High Jan 25 

*RES 2: 3636.05 Low Jan 29 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3577.35

*SUP 1: 3534.51 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3520.84 Low Jan 4 

*SUP 3: 3509.92 55-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3467.78 High Sept 9 now support

*COMMENTARY: Having failed to trouble 2017 highs on the recovery from 2018 lows

the index remains offered following closes below key DMAs with immediate focus

now on the 200-DMA. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to add weight to the

case for a move targeting 2018 lows (3469.23). Bulls need a close above 3600.36

to gain breathing room and above 3636.05 to shift focus to 2017 & 2018 highs.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]