MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

6 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Bullish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 160.08 Daily bear channel top

*RES 3: 160.04 21-DMA

*RES 2: 159.66 Low Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.33 High Jan 31

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.04

*SUP 1: 158.88 Hourly resistance Jan 31 now support

*SUP 2: 158.44 Hourly resistance Feb 5 now support

*SUP 3: 158.01 Hourly support Feb 5

*SUP 4: 157.62 2018 Low Feb 5

*COMMENTARY: Bears failed to capitalise on the first weekly close below the

200-DMA (158.69) since 2011 with a bullish key day reversal easing bearish

pressure and seeing focus on 159.66-160.36. Bulls now need a close above 160.36

to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and bear channel top and shift initial focus to

161.13-62 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. bears now look for a close below 158.44

to shift focus back to 2018 lows and then the weekly bear channel base (156.52).

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA Needed To Target 131.450-520

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 131.290 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 131.004 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 130.972 Daily bear channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.860

*SUP 1: 130.770 Hourly resistance Jan 26 now support

*SUP 2: 130.630 Alternating support/resistance

*SUP 3: 130.480 Hourly support Feb 5

*SUP 4: 130.260 2018 Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: Despite recently looking heavy O/S daily studies have impacted with

an aggressive rally and bullish close that sees pressure back on the 21-DMA and

bear channel top. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to confirm a shift in

immediate focus to 131.450-520. Support layers accumulating add support to the

bullish case with bears needing a close below 130.630 to ease pressure on key

resistance layers.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) 111.840-870 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: 112.000 2018 Highs Jan 3 & 9 

*RES 3: 111.987 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 111.985 High Jan 11 

*RES 1: 111.950 High Jan 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.915

*SUP 1: 111.900 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 2: 111.870 Hourly resistance Jan 26 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.840 Low Feb 5 

*SUP 4: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on recent 2018 lows has resulted in a

correction that sees bulls looking for a close above 111.950 to shift initial

focus to 111.985-112.039 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Daily studies are well

placed for a fresh leg higher. Bears now look for a close below 111.870 to ease

renewed bullish pressure and below 111.840 to return initial focus to 2018 lows.

GILT TECHS: (H18) O/S Daily Studies Remain Key Concern

*RES 4: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 3: 122.22 Hourly support Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 2: 121.87 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 1: 121.64 High Feb 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.40

*SUP 1: 121.19 Low Feb 5 

*SUP 2: 120.92 2018 Low Feb 2 

*SUP 3: 120.54 Monthly Low May 25 2016 

*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 4 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the weekly close below the 200-WMA (121.43)

that sees immediate focus on 120.54 and overall focus on 114.41 2015 lows. O/S

daily studies remain the key concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above

121.87 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 122.65 to shift focus back

to 123.12-43 where the 21-DMA (123.15) is found.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.450 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.472 200-DMA

*RES 3: 99.450 Low Sept 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.438 21-DMA

*RES 1: 99.435 Repeated Daily Lows now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.425

*SUP 1: 99.415 2018 Low Feb 2 & 5

*SUP 2: 99.410 Repeated Daily highs now support

*SUP 3: 99.391 100-DMA

*SUP 4: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8

*COMMENTARY: The contract remains capped ahead of the 21-DMA as it flirts with

the 55-DMA (99.425). Bears now need a close below 99.390 to confirm a break of

the 100-DMA and target 99.300-310. Bulls continue to look for a close above

99.450 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and to shift focus to 99.472-520 where

the 55-WMA and 200-DMA are noted.

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Above 100.325 Targets 100.340-342

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.319 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.315

*SUP 1: 100.310 - Repeated Daily lows Jan

*SUP 2: 100.308 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.305 - Lows Dec 4 & 5, Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 100-DMA (100.308) holding firm so far in

2018 with bears needing a close below 100.305 to hint at a move back to 100.285.

Focus has returned to the 100.320-325 region with the Bollinger top currently

limiting follow through. Bulls now look for a close above 100.325 to target

100.340-342 where the bull channel top is noted. Daily studies lingering at

modestly O/B levels remains less than ideal for bulls.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bullish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 123-14+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16

*RES 2: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 1: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-07 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-20+ Hourly support Feb 6

*SUP 2: 121-10+ Alternating support/resistance

*SUP 3: 120-18 2018 Low Feb 5

*SUP 4: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 6yr lows lacked follow through Monday with a bullish

key day reversal a concern given daily studies looking to correct from O/S and

seeing bulls focused on the close above 122-20 to shift initial focus to

123-05+/20 where the 55-DMA is noted. Correcting O/S daily studies add support

to the bullish case. Bears now need a close below 121-10+ to shift initial focus

back to 2018 low.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bearish Key Day Reversal

*RES 4: 2.801 - Alternating support/resistance 

*RES 3: 2.783 - Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 2.754 - Alternating support/resistance 

*RES 1: 2.704 - Hourly resistance Feb 6

*PRICE: 2.681 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.643 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 3: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 4: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support

*COMMENTARY: The rally that has defined 2018 looks to be in trouble with a

bearish key day reversal taking out a number of support layers. Bears now look

for a close below 2.585 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus to

2.489-522 where the 55-DMA and bull channel base are situated. Correcting O/B

studies add weight to the bearish case. Bulls now need a close above 2.754 to

ease bearish pressure and above 2.820 to shift focus back to 2.885-912.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3467.78 Targets 3363.68-3396.69

*RES 4: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3570.95 High Feb 2 

*RES 2: 3554.21 200-DMA 

*RES 1: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3478.77

*SUP 1: 3469.23 2018 Low Jan 2 

*SUP 2: 3467.78 High Sept 9 now support 

*SUP 3: 3396.69 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: 3363.68 Monthly Low Aug 29

*COMMENTARY: Having failed to trouble 2017 highs on the recovery from 2018 lows

the index remains offered following closes below key DMAs with immediate focus

back on 2018 lows. Bears now look for a close below 3467.78 to confirm focus on

3363.68-3396.69 where monthly lows are situated. Bulls now look for a close

above 3523.28 to ease bearish pressure and above 3600.36 to shift focus back to

3636.05-3714.26.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]