MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

15 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

     BEIJING (MNI) - 

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

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BUND TECHS: (H18) Bears Focused On 156.45-78

*RES 4: 159.13 21-DMA

*RES 3: 158.65 High Feb 9

*RES 2: 158.44 High Feb 13

*RES 1: 158.13 Alternating hourly support/resistance Feb 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.70

*SUP 1: 157.54 Low Feb 12

*SUP 2: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 156.78 Low Dec 16 2015

*SUP 4: 156.45 Weekly Bear channel base (Off 2016 High)

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 158.65-159.66 resistance region see bears

firmly in control and focused on 156.57-78 where the weekly bear channel base is

located. A close below 154.81 (Nov 2015 monthly low) then targets 148.23 2015

lows. Bulls still look for a close above 158.65 to ease bearish pressure and

above 159.66 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and the daily bear channel top

(159.34), shifting focus to 161.05-55 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

BOBL TECHS: (H18) Bear Channel Top Capping

*RES 4: 130.738 21-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.710 High Feb 9 

*RES 2: 130.646 Daily Bear channel top 

*RES 1: 130.580 Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.460

*SUP 1: 130.360 Low Feb 9

*SUP 2: 130.160 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 3: 130.048 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 129.794 Daily bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The 21-DMA and bear channel top continue to confirm significance

having capped again Wednesday. The contract remains offered with bears needing a

close below 130.360 to reconfirm focus on the daily bear channel base although

the Bollinger base may limit follow through. Bulls still need a close above the

21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above 131.050 to shift focus to 131.450-520.

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Bears Need Close Below 21-DMA

*RES 4: 111.972 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.925 High Feb 13 

*RES 1: 111.895 Low Feb 13 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.875

*SUP 1: 111.872 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.835 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 111.800 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: H18 is again looking heavy as it pressures the 21-DMA. Bears now

need a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and reconfirm focus on

tests of 2018 lows with overall focus then reconfirmed on the 200-WMA (111.639).

Bulls continue to look for a close above 111.950 to shift initial focus to

111.972-112.035 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted, and above 112.035 to target

112.240 Dec highs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Focus On Weekly Bear Channel Base

*RES 4: 121.97 High Feb 7 

*RES 3: 121.69 High Feb 9 

*RES 2: 121.33 High Feb 13 

*RES 1: 120.99 Hourly support Feb 14 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 120.82

*SUP 1: 120.48 2018 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 2: 119.58 Weekly Bear channel base 

*SUP 3: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016 

*SUP 4: 118.93 Monthly Low Apr 26 2016

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of 122.28 resulted in fresh 2018 & nearly

2 year lows Thursday although follow through has been lacking with the Bollinger

base (120.32) and O/S studies key concerns for bears. Bulls look for a close

above 121.69 to ease immediate bearish pressure and above 122.65 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (122.35) and shift in initial focus to 123.12-82 where 55 &

100-DMAs are noted. Bears continue to target the weekly bear channel base.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Bears Targeting 99.300-310

*RES 4: 99.427 55-DMA, 21-DMA

*RES 3: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12

*RES 2: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.385

*SUP 1: 99.382 Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*SUP 3: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 4: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1

*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a move that now sees overall

bearish focus on 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies have

room to move before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance are in place with

bulls needing a close above 99.415 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.450 to

end bearish hopes and initially target the 200-DMA (99.466).

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.285-295

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Lows Dec, Jan & Feb

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.282 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break

lower thwarted so far. The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look

for a close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016. Bears

continue to look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target

100.285-295. Narrowing Bollinger bands hint at a break out in the near future.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-27

*RES 4: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 2: 120-27  Low Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-20  Hourly resistance Feb 14

*PRICE: 120-07 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-01+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 2: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 3: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*SUP 4: 117-29  Monthly Low Apr 8 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with H18 remaining capped ahead of

121-08 and the sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 7Yr lows. Immediate focus is

on the bear channel base. Overall focus remains on the 117-29/119-24 support

region where levels last seen in 2011 are noted. Layers of resistance have

followed H18 lower. Bulls now look for a close above 120-27 to gain breathing

room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to 122-20/-123-05+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bulls Focused On 2014 High

*RES 4: 3.223 - Monthly High July 1 2011 

*RES 3: 3.073 - Low July 6 2011 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 1: 2.965 - Daily Bull channel top

*PRICE: 2.919 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.902 - High Feb 12 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 4: 2.786 - Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls regained the upper hand after the yield looked heavy in past

days with immediate focus now on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above this level

sees initial focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are situated. O/B

studies and the Bollinger top (2.952) are concerns for bulls. In saying that,

bears now need a close below 2.844 to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to

shift initial focus to 2.755-758 where the 21-DMA is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Increased Correction Risk, 3387.07 Key Today

*RES 4: 3474.86 Low Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3428.11 Hourly resistance Feb 8 

*RES 1: 3387.07 High Feb 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3369.83

*SUP 1: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 2: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 3298.92 100-WMA 

*SUP 4: 3294.77 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from very O/S levels remain the

key concern for bears and increases the risk of a correction back to

3469.23-3474.85 as does the aggressive bounce Wednesday. Bulls look for a close

above 3387.07 to ease bearish pressure and above 3474.86 to initially target

DMAs clustered 3523.28-3600.36. The 200-WMA remains key support. Bears need a

close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]