MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

19 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) 159.66 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 159.66 High Jan 29

*RES 3: 159.33 High Jan 31

*RES 2: 159.10 Daily Bear channel top

*RES 1: 159.00 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.47

*SUP 1: 158.01 Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 2: 157.65 Low Feb 16

*SUP 3: 157.42 Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 157.26 2018 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The bounce Friday is less than ideal for bears but hesitation ahead

of 158.91-159.66 sees bears retain the upper hand. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 159.66 to confirm breaks of the 21-DMA and the daily bear channel

top, shifting focus to 160.90-55 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. Bears now look

for a close below 158.01 to distance themselves from key resistance. Below

157.26 adds weight to the case for a test of the bear channel base (156.54).

BOBL TECHS: (H18) 130.540 & 130.770 Key Today

*RES 4: 131.430 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: 130.990 High Feb 5 

*RES 1: 130.770 High Feb 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.650

*SUP 1: 130.540 High Feb 15 now support

*SUP 2: 130.340 Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 130.160 2018 Low Feb 8

*SUP 4: 130.070 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble 2018 lows last week combined with the bounce

Friday is less than ideal for bulls although follow through above the 21-DMA

(130.680) is lacking. Bulls now need a close above 130.77 to confirm a shift in

initial focus to 130.990-131.050. Initial support is noted at 130.540 with bears

needing a close below to gain breathing room and maintain focus on 2018 lows and

then the channel base (129.65).

SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: 111.965 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 111.950 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 111.925 High Feb 13 

*RES 1: 111.910 High Feb 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.880

*SUP 1: 111.840 Low Feb 15 

*SUP 2: 111.835 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 111.800 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 111.785 Hourly support Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from last week's low failed to gain traction on above

the bear channel top (111.900) with bulls continuing to look for a close above

111.920 to pressure 111.950-965 where the 55-DMA is noted. Bears now look for a

close below 111.835 to reconfirm focus on tests of 2018 lows with overall focus

then reconfirmed on the bear channel base (111.590). A close above the 55-DMA

hints at a shift higher in focus with above 112.035 to target 112.240 Dec highs.

GILT TECHS: (H18) Below 120.74 To See Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: 121.97 High Feb 7 

*RES 3: 121.93 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 121.69 High Feb 9 

*RES 1: 121.44 High Feb 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.33

*SUP 1: 121.08 Hourly Support Feb 16 

*SUP 2: 120.74 High Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: 119.35 Low Apr 29 2016

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows was followed up with an

aggressive bounce and relatively bullish close Friday that increases the risk of

a test of 121.93-122.24 where the 21-DMA is noted. A close above 122.24 remains

needed to hint at a move back to 123.12-29 with above 122.65 to confirm. Bears

now look for a close below 120.74 to return initial focus to 2018 lows and then

119.35 last seen in April 2016. Daily studies are now well placed for gains.

SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.405-450 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 99.427 55-DMA

*RES 3: 99.415 Highs Feb 9 & 12

*RES 2: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.380

*SUP 1: 99.370 Low Nov 3, 28 & 29

*SUP 2: 99.350 Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: 99.310 Monthly Low Nov 1

*SUP 4: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*COMMENTARY: 99.435 recently provided the cap for a move that now sees overall

bearish focus on 99.300-310 where 2017 lows are situated. Daily studies have

room to move before O/S is an issue. Layers of resistance are in place with

bulls needing a close above 99.405 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.450 to

end bearish hopes and initially target the 200-DMA (99.466).

EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Below 100.305 Targets 100.280-295

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.310

*SUP 1: 100.305 - Repeated Lows Dec, Jan & Feb

*SUP 2: 100.295 - Low Dec 1

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 4: 100.280 - Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support remains key with repeated attempts to break

lower thwarted so far and leaving this level as the 2018 low so far. Bears

continue to look for a close below 100.305 to end bullish hopes and target

100.280-295.The 100.320-325 resistance region remains key. Bulls look for a

close above 100.325 to target 100.340 last seen in Oct 2016.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Bulls Need Close Above 120-27

*RES 4: 122-01+ Daily Bear Channel top

*RES 3: 121-23 Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 2: 121-08 Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-27 Low Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-17+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-09+ Low Feb 16

*SUP 2: 120-01 2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 3: 119-30+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bears reconfirmed dominance with H18 remaining capped ahead of

121-08 and the sell-off resulting in fresh 2018 & 7Yr lows. Follow through has

been lacking on the dip below the bear channel base with bears focused on

117-29/119-24 last seen in 2011. Bulls continue to look for a close above 120-27

to gain breathing room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to

122-20/123-05+ with the 55-DMA at 122-26.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Target Correction To 3469.2 While 3368.10 Supports

*RES 4: 3523.2 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3541.0 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 3474.9 Low Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3469.2 Low Jan 2 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3426.8

*SUP 1: 3405.6 Hourly support Feb 16 

*SUP 2: 3368.1 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 3: 3306.6 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 3299.5 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies looking to correct from very O/S levels remain the

key concern for bears and support a correction back to 3469.23-3474.86 as does

Friday's relatively bullish close. Above 3474.86 to initially target DMAs

clustered 3523.2-3600.3. Key support remains at 3368.10 with bears needing a

close below to end correction talk and retain focus on the 200-WMA (3295.1).

Bears need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]