MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) Above 159.66 To Target 160.36-161.18

*RES 4: 161.18 100-DMA

*RES 3: 160.51 55-DMA

*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 1: 159.66 Highs Jan 29 & Feb 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.53

*SUP 1: 159.23 Hourly resistance Feb 23 now support

*SUP 2: 158.92 Hourly resistance Feb 23a now support

*SUP 3: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22

*SUP 4: 158.17 Low Feb 21

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Friday's gains leaving the contract

pressuring 159.66. Bulls continue to look for a close above 159.66 to shift

initial focus to 160.36-161.18 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. The Bollinger band

top (159.50) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Layers of support have accumulated adding support to the bullish case

with bears now needing a close below 158.92 to ease bullish pressure.

     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Above 131.05 To Initially Target 131.286-520

*RES 4: 131.520 Low Jan 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 2: 131.286 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.050 Low Jan 18 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.040

*SUP 1: 130.850 High Feb 21 now support

*SUP 2: 130.610 Lows Feb 21 & 22

*SUP 3: 130.577 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 130.480 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging on dips provided the impetus for a rally and

bullish close Friday that leaves the contract pressuring 131.050. Bulls need a

close above to shift initial focus to 131.286-520 where the 55-DMA is located.

Initial support is now noted at 130.850 with bears needing a close below to ease

bullish pressure. Below the 21-DMA is needed to return initial focus to 130.160

2018 lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Closes Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 112.110 Lows Dec 14 & 15 now resistance 

*RES 3: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 2: 112.018 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 112.000 2018 Highs Jan 3 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.955

*SUP 1: 111.948 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.930 High Feb 20 - 22 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.895 Low Feb 21 

*SUP 4: 111.871 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation at the 111.930 level came to an end Friday with a close

above the 55-DMA seeing bullish focus now on 112.000-035 where the 100-DMA is

located. Bulls now look for a close above 112.035 to initially target 112.110.

The Bollinger top (111.951) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now need a close

below 111.930 to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to hint at a move

back to 111.765 and below 111.845 to confirm.

     GILT TECHS: (H18) 121.29-72 Support Key This Week

*RES 4: 123.12 High Jan 26 

*RES 3: 122.65 High Jan 30 

*RES 2: 122.24 High Feb 6 

*RES 1: 122.05 High Feb 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.95

*SUP 1: 121.72 Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: 121.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: 120.74 High Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 4: 120.13 2018 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The correction from last week's 2018 lows is gaining traction above

the 21-DMA with bulls now looking for a close above 122.65 to confirm a move

back to 123.12-47 where 55 (123.29) & 100 (123.47) DMAs are situated. Bears now

need a close below 121.72 to gain breathing room and below 121.29 to shift focus

back to 120.13 2018 lows.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) Below 99.300 Targets 99.180-270

*RES 4: 99.401 21-DMA

*RES 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.360 Hourly support Feb 22 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.330 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.310

*SUP 1: 99.305 2018 Low Feb 23

*SUP 2: 99.300 2017 Low Oct 17

*SUP 3: 99.270 2014 Low Sept 18 2014

*SUP 4: 99.210 Monthly Lows June/July 2012

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort as the sell-off Thursday confirms initial focus

on 99.300-310 with a close below this region then targeting 99.180-270 where

2014 lows and June/July 2012 monthly lows are noted. Layers of resistance are

following the contract lower with bulls now needing a close above 99.360 to ease

bearish pressure and hint at a correction back to 99.390-435 where key DMAs are

situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bears Focused On 100.275-295

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb 

*RES 2: 100.312 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.305 - High Feb 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct, 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.280 - Low Oct 6

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support has finally been broken although follow through

has been lacking. In saying that, focus now shifts to layers of support

100.275-295 where the 200-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have accumulated

with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm breaks of DMAs and return

focus to 100.320-325.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Flirting With Key Resistance

*RES 4: 121-24+ Daily Bear channel top (off Dec 29 High)

*RES 3: 121-23  Hourly resistance Feb 6

*RES 2: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 1: 120-31+ 21-DMA

*PRICE: 120-24+ @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-20+ Hourly support Feb 23

*SUP 2: 120-15+ High Feb 22 now support

*SUP 3: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Thursday left a double daily bottom

120-01/02 with the recovery flirting with 120-27. Bulls now need a close above

the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above 121-23 to hint at a correction to

122-17+/123-05+ with the 55-DMA at 122-17+. Bears now need a close below 120-15+

to retain focus on 119-21+/24.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.808-844 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 3.041 - 2014 High Jan 2 

*RES 3: 2.977 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 1: 2.904 - Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.868 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.844 - Hourly breakout level Feb 14 

*SUP 2: 2.808 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through on 2018 & 4yr highs is less than

ideal for bulls who are focused on the 3.041 2014 high. A close above 3.041 is

needed to initially focus on 3.073-223 where July 2011 monthly highs are

situated. O/B studies and the Bollinger top remain concerns. In saying that,

bears need a close below 2.844 to gain breathing room and below 2.808 to shift

initial focus to 2.758.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3368.10 & 3474.85 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3474.85 Low Feb 5 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3469.23 Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3443.75 High Feb 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3441.46

*SUP 1: 3420.59 Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 2: 3393.28 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: The index remains supported on dips with focus remaining on

3469.23-3474.85. Bulls still need a close above 3474.85 to initially target DMAs

in the 3523.28-3600.36 region. Key support remains at 3368.10 with bears needing

a close below to end correction talk and retain focus on the 200-WMA (3296.53).

Bears then need a close below the 200-WMA to target 2017 lows (3214.31).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]