MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

28 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (H18) 158.85-159.05 Support Region Now Key

*RES 4: 161.15 100-DMA

*RES 3: 160.37 55-DMA

*RES 2: 160.36 High Jan 26

*RES 1: 159.67 High Feb 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.26

*SUP 1: 159.05 Low Feb 27

*SUP 2: 158.85 Highs Feb 21 & 22 now support

*SUP 3: 158.52 Hourly support Feb 22

*SUP 4: 158.17 Low Feb 21

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the marginal break of 159.67 is less

than ideal with daily studies at O/B levels. The Bollinger top (159.46) is the

key concern for bulls and limits follow through. The 158.85-159.05 support

region is now key. Bears need a close below 158.85 to shift focus back to 158.17

and below this level to target 157.26-42. A close above 159.67 remains needed to

target 160.36-161.13 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted.

     BOBL TECHS: (H18) Topside Hesitation A Concern

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 

*RES 3: 131.290 High Jan 24 

*RES 2: 131.230 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 131.120 Low Jan 24 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.930

*SUP 1: 130.710 Low Feb 23

*SUP 2: 130.610 Lows Feb 21 & 22, 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.480 Low Feb 20

*SUP 4: 130.340 Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The break of 131.050 lacked follow through Monday with bulls now

needing a close above 131.290 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA and shift initial

focus to 131.450-520. The Bollinger top (131.000) is the key concern and

currently limits follow through. Bears now look for a close below 130.710 to

ease bullish pressure. Below the 21-DMA is needed to return initial focus to

130.160 2018 lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (H18) Layers Resistance Remain 111.970-112.035

*RES 4: 112.035 High Dec 20 

*RES 3: 112.017 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 112.000 2018 Highs Jan 3 & 9 

*RES 1: 111.970 High Feb 26

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.930

*SUP 1: 111.895 Low Feb 21 

*SUP 2: 111.880 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 111.845 Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: 111.835 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Time spent above the 55-DMA (111.940) has so far been brief with

the Bollinger top (111.960) limiting follow through. The break of 111.930 has

lacked follow through but the contract remains offered with bears continuing to

look for a close below the 21-DMA to hint at a move back to 111.765 with below

111.845 to confirm. Bulls need a close above 111.970 to gain breathing room and

above 112.035 to target 111.240 Dec highs.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bears Now Need Close Below 120.29

*RES 4: 122.29 55-DMA 

*RES 3: 121.55 High Jan 30 

*RES 2: 121.28 TL off Feb 14 high 

*RES 1: 121.25 High Feb 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 120.54

*SUP 1: 120.47 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: 119.83 Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: 119.29 Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure has returned to the 21-DMA following the close

below the bull channel base (120.73) with a minor bearish key day reversal

noted. Bears continue to look for a close below 120.29 to confirm an easing of

bullish pressure and return initial focus to 119.29 Feb lows. Bulls look for a

close above 121.55 to add support to the case for a move targeting 55 &

100-DMAs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (H18) 99.350-370 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: 99.405 Lows Feb 9 & 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 99.390 Lows Dec 5 & 8, Low Feb 8 now resistance

*RES 2: 99.370 Low Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 1: 99.350 High Feb 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.340

*SUP 1: 99.310 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.290 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 3: 99.270 2014 Low Sept 18 2014

*SUP 4: 99.210 Monthly Lows June/July 2012

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr lows were seen Monday but the lack of follow

through is less than ideal when combined with O/S daily studies and the

Bollinger band base at 99.316. Bulls need a close above 99.350 to gain breathing

room and above 99.370 to shift focus back to 99.390-421 where key DMAs are

situated. Bears now need a close below 99.310 to retain focus on 99.180-270.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 3: 100.315 - Repeated Daily highs Feb 

*RES 2: 100.312 - 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 100.310 - 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Low Dec 1, 2018 Low Feb 23 & 26

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Repeated Daily lows Oct

*SUP 3: 100.280 - Low Oct 6

*SUP 4: 100.275 - Monthly Low Sept 28

*COMMENTARY: The 100.305 support was recently taken out although follow through

has been lacking. In saying that, focus has shifted to layers of support

100.275-295 where the 200-DMA is situated. Layers of resistance have accumulated

with bulls needing a close above 100.315 to confirm breaks of DMAs and return

focus to 100.320-325. Daily studies are now seen correcting from modestly O/S

levels and add support to the bullish case.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Focus Back On Key Support

*RES 4: 121-21+ Daily Bear channel top (off Dec 29 High)

*RES 3: 121-08  Hourly support Feb 9 now resistance

*RES 2: 121-00+ High Feb 26

*RES 1: 120-18+ Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance

*PRICE: 120-12 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-01  2018 Low Feb 15

*SUP 2: 119-24  Low Apr 21 2011

*SUP 3: 119-18+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through Thursday left a double daily bottom

120-01/02 with the recovery capped around the 21-DMA. Bulls need a close above

121-08 to gain breathing room and above the bear channel top to hint at a

correction to 122-12+/20. Bears take comfort in the close below 120-15+ that

sees focus reconfirmed on 119-18+/24 where the bear channel base is situated.

The Bollinger base (119-28+) is the key concern for bears.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Recovery May Be In Trouble

*RES 4: 3567.86 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3538.00 200-DMA 

*RES 2: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3476.20 High Feb 27

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3458.00

*SUP 1: 3443.75 High Feb 8 now support 

*SUP 2: 3420.59 Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: 3393.28 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 3368.10 Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*COMMENTARY: The marginal break of 3474.85 lacked follow through with the

recovery from 2018 lows potentially in trouble. In saying that, bears need a

close below 3443.75 to ease bullish pressure and below 3368.10 to return focus

to the 200-WMA (3297.95). Bears then need a close below the 200-WMA to target

2017 lows (3214.31). Bulls now look for a close above 3476.20 to to initially

target DMAs in the 3523.28-3600.36 region.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]