MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

13 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 156.22 & 157.69 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 158.28 100-DMA

*RES 3: 158.25 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 157.69 High Mar 5

*RES 1: 157.36 High Mar 8 & 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.05

*SUP 1: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: 156.37 21-DMA

*SUP 3: 156.22 Low Mar 8

*SUP 4: 155.25 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The correction from March highs so far has found support around the

daily bull channel base off Feb 15 lows (156.52) and the 21-DMA. Bears need a

close below 156.88 to gain breathing room and below 156.22 to shift focus back

to 154.62-155.25 where Feb lows are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 157.69 to regain the upper hand and initially target 158.25-39 where the

100-DMA is situated. Overall focus shifts to 159.27-58 on a break of 157.69.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Above 130.570 Targets 130.980-131.077

*RES 4: 131.007 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.714 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 130.570 High Mar 5 

*RES 1: 130.553 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.280

*SUP 1: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*SUP 2: 130.016 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 3: 129.918 Daily Bull channel base of Feb low

*SUP 4: 129.840 Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive recovery from below the 21-DMA

(130.079) that sees focus now on 130.570. Bulls look for a close above 130.570

to shift focus to 130.980-131.077 where the 100-DMA is located. Bears continue

to look for a close below 130.210 to ease bullish pressure and below 129.840 to

confirm focus on 129.360 Feb lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bulls Focused On Channel Top & 100-DMA

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 3: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.900 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 111.885 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.855

*SUP 1: 111.835 Double daily top Mar now support 

*SUP 2: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 3: 111.760 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support 

*SUP 4: 111.740 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday was aggressively reversed having tested the bull

channel base, 21 (111.753) & 55 (111.726) DMAs. Bulls made short work of the

double daily top at 111.835 Monday with immediate focus now on 111.885-900 where

the bull channel top and 100-DMA are situated. Initial support is noted at

111.835 but bears look for a close below 111.805 to ease bullish pressure and

target a correction to 111.715.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 120.29 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 122.48 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.02 High Mar 2 

*RES 2: 121.84 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 121.64 High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.23

*SUP 1: 120.89 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 2: 120.48 Low Feb 27 

*SUP 3: 120.29 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: 119.83 Low Feb 20

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from failures ahead of the 55-DMA resulted in

a dip below the 21-DMA (120.77) last week but follow through was lacking. Bears

continue to look for a close below 120.29 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and

return initial focus to 119.29. Bulls take comfort in Thursday's bounce but

still need a close above Y122.02 to pressure the 100-DMA although the Bollinger

top (121.92) remains a concern and has potential to limit follow through.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.220

*RES 4: 99.274 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.266 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.138 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is stalling around the 21-DMA

(99.189). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.266-274 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bulls Need Close Above 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.285 - Repeated Daily highs Nov & Dec, High Mar 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285

*SUP 1: 100.265 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.256 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 4: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: Support emerging at 100.250 provided the base for the contract to

gain traction above key DMAs 100.256-265 but follow through remains lacking with

100.285 continuing to cap. Bears need a close below 100.250 to ease bullish

pressure and below 100.240 to shift focus back to 100.220-225 where the 200-DMA

is situated. The Bollinger band top (100.285) remains the key concern for bulls

and currently caps.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Layers Of Resistance 120-13+/121-01+

*RES 4: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 3: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 2: 120-14+ Hourly resistance Mar 7

*RES 1: 120-13+ Daily Bear channel top (off Jan 2 high)

*PRICE: 120-04 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 2: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 3: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*SUP 4: 118-24  Low Apr 13 2011

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on gains with the contract remaining

capped ahead of the bear channel top. Bulls still need a close above 121-01+ to

shift initial focus to 121-11+/122-02 where the 55-DMA is located. In saying

that, bears still need a close below 119-21 repeated Feb lows to confirm focus

on 118-08+/24 where the bear channel base that has defined 2018 so far is noted.

Narrowing Bollinger bands hint at a breakout in the near future.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.842 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.935 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12

*PRICE: 2.877 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.842 - Low Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 2.821 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: Last week bears failed to capitalise on the recent sell-off from

2018 highs with the yield bouncing from ahead of key supports. Bears need a

close below 2.842 to gain breathing room and below 2.758 to end bullish hopes

and shift focus back to 2.609-704 where the 55-DMA is noted. Above 2.957 remains

needed to reconfirm focus on 3.041. Narrowing Bollinger bands are hinting at a

break out in the near future.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Above 3476.21 To Target 3505.13-3570.95

*RES 4: 3523.28 Low Feb 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 3480.85 Bollinger band top 

*RES 2: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 3444.04 High Mar 12

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3429.48

*SUP 1: 3403.80 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: 3390.81 High Mar 6 now support 

*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 

*SUP 4: 3326.75 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the failed attempt to take out 2018 lows left a

double daily bottom in place with the index now gaining traction above the

21-DMA. Bears need a close below 3390.81 to ease bullish pressure and below the

200-WMA (3299.73) to initially target 2017 lows (3214.31). The 3476.21

resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this level to shift initial

focus to key DMAs 3505.13-3570.95.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]