MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Theme Firms in AUD

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – Bearish Theme Firms in AUD

• S&P E-Minis traded lower late last week and the contract started this week on a bearish note - Monday’s move lower marks an extension of the bear cycle.  The move down has resulted in a print below 5185.50, 76.4% of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bear leg. A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday having started the week on a bearish note. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal.
• GBPUSD remains in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2790 - and a breach of a trendline at 1.2771, drawn from the Apr 22 low. USDJPY remains bearish and last week’s sell-off plus Monday’s impulsive move lower, reinforces this condition. This paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact and the pair initially traded sharply lower Monday, before recovering. Price action is volatile. Monday’s low print highlights a test of key support at 0.6463, the Apr 19 low.
• Recent weakness in Gold appears to be a correction - for now. However, note that the yellow metal has managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2374.6. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4. A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday, extending the current downtrend. Sights are on the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for an extension towards $70.73. 
• A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared last week, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Gilt futures traded higher last week, marking a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. Yesterday’s high print reinforces current conditions. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 high, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.78. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Clears Resistance  

• RES 4: 1.1139 High Dec 29 ‘ 23 and a key resistance  
• RES 3: 1.1084  High Dec 29
• RES 2: 1.1046 High Jan 2
• RES 1: 1.1012 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Apr 16 downleg
• PRICE: 1.0951 @ 05:39 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 1.0893 Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 1.0852 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.0826 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.0778 Low Aug 1 and a key support 

Friday’s rally in EURUSD resulted in a break of resistance at 1.0870, the Jul 25 / 29 high. Monday’s gains marked an extension of Friday's move and this resulted in a break of key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 1.0948, the Jul 17 high. The move higher resumes the uptrend and opens 1.1012 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support has been defined at  1.0778, last Thursday’s low. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present   

• RES 4: 1.3044 High Jul 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 1.2968 High Jul 19 
• RES 2: 1.2938 High Jul 24
• RES 1: 1.2838 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2774 @ 05:55 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 1.2707 Low Aug 2
• SUP 2: 1.2672 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.2584 50.0 retracement of the Apr 22 - Jul 17 bull cycle 

GBPUSD remains in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s move down resulted in a break of the 50-day EMA - at 1.2790 - and a breach of a trendline at 1.2771, drawn from the Apr 22 low. The clear break of the EMA and the trendline, suggests scope for an extension towards 1.2672 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 1.2838, the 20-day EMA.         

EURGBP TECHS: Vertical rally                              

• RES 4: 0.8715 High Dec 28    
• RES 3: 0.8677 76.4% retracement of the Nov 20 ‘23 - Jul 17 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8620 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 0.8576 @ 06:08 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 0.8517/0.8499 Low Aug 5 / High Jul 1  
• SUP 2:  0.8465 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3:  0.8453 20-day EMA 
• SUP 4: 0.8418 Low Aug 1

EURGBP traded higher last week and the cross maintains a firmer tone with Monday’s strong gains also reinforcing bullish conditions. The latest rally has resulted in the break of a number of key resistance points. This cancels the recent bearish theme and highlights potential for 0.8645, the Apr 23 high and a key resistance. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8466, the 50-day EMA. First support lies at 0.8517, the Aug 5 low.     

USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South    

• RES 4: 155.59 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 153.4620-day EMA  
• RES 2: 149.77 High Aug 2    
• RES 1: 146.66 High Aug 5   
• PRICE: 145.33 @ 06:18 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 141.70/140.82 Low Aug 5 / Low Jan 2    
• SUP 2: 140.25 Low Low Dec 28 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 140.00 Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: 138.07 Low Dec 28   

USDJPY remains bearish and last week’s sell-off plus Monday’s impulsive move lower, reinforces this condition. This paves the way for an extension towards the next key support at 140.25, the Dec 28 ‘23 low. Note that the pair is in an extreme oversold condition, however a clear reversal pattern / signal in price is required to highlight a change in direction. Initial resistance is seen at 146.66, the Aug 5 high.    

EURJPY TECHS: Impulsive Bearish Wave     

• RES 4: 168.43 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 166.53 20-day EMA    
• RES 2: 162.89 High Aug 1       
• RES 1: 160.22 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 159.70 @ 06:33 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 154.42 Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23 
• SUP 3: 153.23  Low Dec 7 ‘23 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 151.42 Low Jul 28 ‘23

EURJPY traded sharply lower Monday marking an extension of the current impulsive bear cycle, before recovering from the session low. The move down signals scope for an extension towards the next key support at 153.23, the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A break of this price point would strengthen a bearish theme. Note that the cross is in an extreme oversold position. A recovery would allow this to unwind. Initial resistance is seen at 160.22, Monday’s intraday high.  

AUDUSD TECHS: Tests Key Support   

• RES 4: 0.6702 High Jul 22     
• RES 3: 0.6625 50-day EMA                
• RES 2: 0.6596 20-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.6560 High Aug 1  
• PRICE: 0.6516 @ 06:53 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 0.6339 Low Nov 10’23   
• SUP 3: 0.6315 Low Oct 31 ‘23   
• SUP 4: 0.6270 Low Oct 26 ‘23 and a key support  

A bearish theme is AUDUSD remains intact and the pair initially traded sharply lower Monday, before recovering. Price action is volatile. Monday’s low print highlights a test of key support at 0.6463, the Apr 19 low. A clear break of this level would reinforce a bearish theme and signal scope for an extension towards 0.6339, the Nov 10 ‘23 low. Initial resistance is at 0.6560, the Aug 1 high.    

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure 

• RES 4: 1.4048 High May 22 2020 
• RES 3: 1.4000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3977 High Oct 13, 2022   
• RES 1: 1.3946 High Aug 5 
• PRICE: 1.3824 @ 06:59 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 1.3781 20-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 1.3728 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3657 Low Jul 17
• SUP 4: 1.3589 Low Jun 11 and a key support

Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and recent gains reinforce this theme. The move higher has resulted in a break of key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high. This signals scope for a climb towards 1.3977, the Oct 13 ‘22 high. The pair has pulled back from Monday’s intraday high. Note that the trend condition is overbought and a deeper pullback would allow this condition to unwind. First support to watch is 1.3781, the 20-day EMA.  

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Pullback Considered Corrective 

• RES 4: 137.26 3.50 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing         
• RES 3: 136.99 3.382 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing
• RES 2: 136.45 76.4% of the Dec 27 - May 31 downleg (cont)
• RES 1: 136.28 High Aug 5                      
• PRICE: 134.55 @ 05:19 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 134.39 Low Aug 2           
• SUP 2: 133.07 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 132.35/131.62 50-day EMA / Low Jul 22 and a key support   
• SUP 4: 131.39 Low Jul 15  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains in play and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. 133.21, the Jun 14 high, was cleared last week, confirming a resumption of the uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on 136.45, a Fibonacci retracement. The contract off Monday’s high, an extension lower would allow an overbought condition to unwind. Firm support is 133.07, the 20-day EMA.    

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play                                           

• RES 4: 120.000 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 119.730 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 119.234 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing      
• RES 1: 119.090 High Aug 5               
• PRICE: 117.910 @ 05:37 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 117.880/117.148 Low Jul 31 / 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 116.320 Low Jul 22   
• SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11 
• SUP 4: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support

Bobl futures remain in an uptrend and the pullback from Monday’s high is considered corrective, and is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at the Jun 14 high of 117.160. This break, together with the subsequent impulsive rally, reinforces current conditions. Sights are on 119.234, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 117.148, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Support Remains Intact  

• RES 4: 107.120 2.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 3: 107.000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 106.916 1.764 proj of the May 24 - Jun 14 - Jul 5 price swing 
• RES 1: 106.810 High Aug 5  
• PRICE: 106.290 @ 05:46 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 106.235/953 Low Jul 31 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.630 Low Jul 22  
• SUP 3: 105.495 Low Jul 11 
• SUP 4: 105.390 Low Jul 5 and a key support 

The current uptrend in Schatz futures remains intact. The contract has recently traded through resistance at 105.975, the Jun 14 high. The clear break of this hurdle confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 24. Sights are on 106.916, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 105.899, the 20-day EMA, and 105.630, the Jul 22 low. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would be seen as a bearish development.                       

GILT TECHS: (U4) Uptrend Remains Intact                                          

• RES 4: 102.15 2.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 102.00 Roun number resistance 
• RES 2: 101.78 2.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 101.46 High Aug 4  
• PRICE: 100.46 @ Close Aug 5 
• SUP 1: 99.23 High Jun 21       
• SUP 2: 98.54/97.46 20-day EMA / Low Jul 26 and a key support     
• SUP 3: 96.96 Low Jul 3 
• SUP 4: 96.57 Low Jul 1

Gilt futures traded higher last week, marking a confirmation of the uptrend that started May 29. Yesterday’s high print reinforces current conditions. Note that 99.23, the Jun 21 high, has been cleared. Scope is seen for a climb towards 101.78, a Fibonacci projection point. Initial key support lies at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. A pullback would be considered corrective and this would allow an overbought trend condition to unwind.    

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bull Trend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 120.85 2.236 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 2: 120.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 1: 119.57 High Aug 2  
• PRICE: 118.95 @ Close Aug 5
• SUP 1: 118.14/117.50 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures traded higher last week and the medium-term trend remains positive following recent strong gains. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards the 120.00 handle next. Initial firm support is seen at 118.14, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 117.50. A clear break of both averages would instead highlight a bearish threat and a potential reversal.                         

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bearish Cycle Extends      

• RES 4: 4940.25 50-day EMA   
• RES 3: 4885.77 20-day EMA        
• RES 2: 4770.00 High Aug 2 
• RES 1: 4663.00 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 4634.00 @ 05:59 BST Aug 5
• SUP 1: 4494.00 Low Aug 5 
• SUP 2: 4478.81 2.236 proj of the Jun 6 - 14 - Jul 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 4424.64 61.8% of the Oct 27 ‘23 - May 16 bull cycle (cont) 
• SUP 4: 4502.00 Low Jan 24 (cont)

A bear threat in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday having started the week on a bearish note. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a break of 4846.00, the Apr 19 low. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and signals scope for an extension towards 4478.81 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance is 4926.40, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is 46636.00, today’s intraday high.            

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Gains Appear To Be Corrective   

• RES 4: 5721.25 High Jul 16 and Key resistance   
• RES 3: 5600.75 High Aug 1 
• RES 2: 5483.35 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 5345.50 High Aug 5 
• PRICE: 5284.50 @ 07:17 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 5120.00 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 5185 50.76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5092.00 Low May 2  
• SUP 4: 5020 Low Apr 19 and a key support

S&P E-Minis traded lower late last week and the contract started this week on a bearish note - Monday’s move lower marks an extension of the bear cycle.  The move down has resulted in a print below 5185.50, 76.4% of the Apr 19 - Jul 16 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 5092.00 next, the May 2 low. Monday’s intraday high of 5345.50 marks initial resistance. The 50-day EMA, a firmer level, is at 5483.35. Gains are considered corrective - for now.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (V4) Oversold But Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat 

• RES 4: $88.44 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $87.05 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $84.66 - High Jul 18
• RES 1: $77.95/81.82 - Low Jul 30 / 50-day EMA   
• PRICE: $77.13 @ 06:57 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: $74.96 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 2: $73.31 - Low Dec 13 2023 and a key support
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Psychological round number 
• SUP 4: $67.60 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing   

A bear cycle in Brent futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The contract has also traded through a key support at 76.42, the Jun 4 low. This signals scope for a continuation lower with sights on $74.96 next, the Feb 5 low. The contract is oversold, however any short-term bounce would be considered corrective. Initial firm resistance is seen at $81.82, the 50-day EMA.  

WTI TECHS: (U4) Pierces Key Support 

• RES 4: $84.36 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $83.58 - High Jul 5 
• RES 2: $82.27 - High Jul 18  
• RES 1: $74.59/78.88 - Low Jul 30 / High Aug 1    
• PRICE: $73.76 @ 07:09 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: $71.67 - Low Aug 5  
• SUP 2: $70.73 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 3: $69.16 - Low Dec 13 2023
• SUP 4: $67.37 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing 

A bear threat in WTI futures remains present and the contract traded lower Monday, extending the current downtrend. Sights are on the next key support at $72.23, the Jun 4 low. It has been pierced, a clear break would reinforce bearish conditions and pave the way for an extension towards $70.73, the Feb 5 low. Key resistance is seen at $78.88, the Aug 1 high. Short-term gains would allow an oversold condition to unwind.   

GOLD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 1: $2483.7 - High Jul 17 and the bull trigger                  
• PRICE: $2397.0 @ 07:14 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: $2353.2 - Low Jul 25
• SUP 2: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

Recent weakness in Gold appears to be a correction - for now. However, note that the yellow metal has managed to pierce support at the 50-day EMA - at $2374.6. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards $2277.4, the May 3 low and a key support. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $2483.7, the Jul 17 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle resumes the uptrend.      

SILVER TECHS: Approaching A Key Support 

• RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg        
• RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $29.212/31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $26.866 @ 08:04 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: $26.505 - Low Aug 5
• SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
• SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27 
• SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28 

A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The metal has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low and this has exposed the next key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $29.212, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.