MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

14 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Above 157.69 Initially Targets 158.25-39

*RES 4: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 3: 158.35 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 158.25 100-DMA

*RES 1: 157.69 High Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 157.59

*SUP 1: 157.09 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 156.88 Low Mar 9

*SUP 3: 156.47 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 156.22 Low Mar 8

*COMMENTARY: M18 gains traction above the 55-DMA with pressure on 157.69. Bulls

need a close above 157.69 to shift initial focus to 158.25-39 where the bull

channel top & 100-DMA are noted & overall focus to 159.03. The Bollinger top

(157.86) is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow through.

Initial support is noted at the 55-DMA but bears look for a close below 156.8 to

ease bullish pressure and below 156.22 to shift focus back to 154.62 Feb lows.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Above 130.570 Targets 130.980-131.060

*RES 4: 131.007 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.739 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 130.590 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 130.570 High Mar 5

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.510

*SUP 1: 130.380 Low Mar 13

*SUP 2: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*SUP 3: 130.016 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 4: 129.942 Daily Bull channel base of Feb low

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the aggressive recovery from below the 21-DMA

(130.114) that sees focus on 130.570. Bulls continue to look for a close above

130.570 to shift focus to 130.980-131.060 where the 100-DMA is located. Bears

still need a close below 130.210 to ease bullish pressure and below 129.840 to

confirm a break of the bull channel base and focus on 129.360 Feb lows.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.805-835 Support Key

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 3: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 2: 111.898 100-DMA 

*RES 1: 111.891 Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.860

*SUP 1: 111.835 Double daily top Mar now support 

*SUP 2: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 3: 111.760 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support, 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 111.745 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low

*COMMENTARY: The dip Thursday was aggressively reversed having tested the bull

channel base, 21 (111.760) & 55 (111.727) DMAs. The break of the double daily

top at 111.835 Monday shifted immediate focus to 111.891-898 where the bull

channel top and 100-DMA are situated and overall focus to 112.050-065. Initial

support is noted at 111.835 but bears look for a close below 111.805 to ease

bullish pressure and target a correction to 111.715.

     GILT TECHS:(M18) Below 21-DMA To Gain Breathing Room

*RES 4: 122.48 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 122.02 High Mar 2 

*RES 2: 121.80 55-DMA 

*RES 1: 121.65 High Mar 13

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.38

*SUP 1: 121.10 Daily Bull channel base 

*SUP 2: 120.89 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 3: 120.83 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from failures ahead of the 55-DMA resulted in

a dip below the 21-DMA last week but follow through was lacking. Bears now look

for a close below the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and below 120.29 to return

initial focus to 119.29. Hesitation ahead of the 55-DMA is a concern with bulls

needing a close above Y122.02 to pressure the 100-DMA although the Bollinger top

(121.98) remains a concern and has potential to limit follow through. 

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.220

*RES 4: 99.273 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.263 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: 99.141 Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 4: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is hesitating around the 21-DMA

(99.186). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.263-273 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Gaining Traction Above LT Channel Top

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.292 - Daily Bull channel top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.285

*SUP 1: 100.266 - 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 100.257 - 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 100.250 - Lows Feb 26 & 27

*SUP 4: 100.240 - Low Jan 29

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows as the contract gains traction above the

weekly bear channel top (100.260) off 2016 highs. Immediate pressure is on the

bull channel top with the Bollinger band top (100.288) a concern and currently

limiting follow through when combine with daily momentum divergence. Bears now

need a close below 100.275 to gain breathing room and below 100.250 to hint at a

move back to 100.220-225 where the 200-DMA is situated.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Band Top Capping

*RES 4: 121-09+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 1: 120-18+ Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 120-15 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-02+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 3: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 4: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The break of the bear channel top (120-10) off 2018 highs lacked

follow through with the Bollinger top seen capping. Narrowing Bollinger bands

hint at a break out in the near future. Bulls now need a close above 120-23 to

gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to shift initial focus to 122-02. The

21-DMA is supporting but bears now need a close below 119-26+ to initially focus

on 119-14 with overall focus on 118-24.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Bears Dominate While 2.925 Caps

*RES 4: 2.937 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 1: 2.883 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: 2.832 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.830 - Low Mar 13 

*SUP 2: 2.815 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 2.810 - Low Mar 5 

*SUP 4: 2.793 - Low Mar 2

*COMMENTARY: The yield is looking a little heavy with the recovery from 2.793

likely to have come to an end. Bulls now need a close above 2.925 to regain the

upper hand and above 2.957 to return focus to 3.041 2014 highs. In saying that,

the 2.758 support remains key. Bears need a close below this level to end

bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696-716 where the 55-DMA is

noted. Overall focus shifts to 2.609-648.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3480.66 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3446.64 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 3417.97 Low Mar 12 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3397.35

*SUP 1: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 3329.72 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Focus has returned to the double daily bottom and 2018 low

following a bearish key day reversal and close below the 21-DMA (3405.19)

Tuesday. Bears now look for a close below 3372.53 to add weight to their case.

Resistance layers are again building and add weight to the bearish case. Bulls

continue to look for a close above 3476.21 to shift initial focus to key DMAs

3501.98-3570.95 with the Bollinger top the key concern.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]