MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

16 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Above 158.39 Initially Targets 159.27

*RES 4: 159.27 Monthly High Jan 8

*RES 3: 158.54 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 1: 158.25 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.12

*SUP 1: 157.97 High Mar 15 now support

*SUP 2: 157.73 Hourly resistance Mar 14 now support

*SUP 3: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 157.04 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue with immediate focus on 158.25-54 where the 100-DMA

and bull channel top are located. Overall focus remains on 159.27-58. The

Bollinger top (158.20) is the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

Bears now need a close below 157.73 to ease bullish pressure and below the

21-DMA (156.72) to confirm a break of the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows,

hinting at a move back to 154.62 and below 156.22 to confirm.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.540-620 Support Region Key Today

*RES 4: 131.034 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.980 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 130.787 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 130.703 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.680

*SUP 1: 130.620 High Mar 14 now support

*SUP 2: 130.540 Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 130.380 Low Mar 13

*SUP 4: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue with immediate focus on the bull channel top and

overall focus on 130.980-131.034 where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger top

remains the key concern for bulls and currently limits follow through. Support

layers accumulating adds to bullish confidence. Bears now look for a close below

130.540 to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA to (130.197) to shift

focus back to 129.840-990 where the bull channel base off Feb lows is located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.805-855 Support Region Key Today

*RES 4: 112.065 Monthly low Sept 2017 

*RES 3: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 2: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.894 100-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.875

*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.760 Hourly resistance Mar 8 now support

*COMMENTARY: Immediate pressure remains on the 100-DMA and bull channel top with

a close above the 100-DMA now needed to hint at a move to 112.050-065 and above

111.945 to confirm. Layers of support continue to emerge and add to bullish

confidence. Bears now need a close below 111.855 to gain breathing room and

below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715. The Bollinger top

(111.892) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 121.65 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 122.99 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.45 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.16 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.02 High Mar 2

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.89

*SUP 1: 121.72 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 121.65 High Mar 13 now support 

*SUP 3: 121.29 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 4: 121.02 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in closes above the 55-DMA that reconfirm focus

on 122.45-99 where the 100-DMA and daily bull channel top are located. The

Bollinger top is the key concern for bulls with potential to limit follow

through. Bears still need a close below 121.65 to confirm a false break of the

55-DMA and ease bullish pressure. Below 120.89 is needed to hint at a move back

to 119.29 with below 120.29 to confirm.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150 & 99.220 Levels Key

*RES 4: 99.271 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.258 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.190

*SUP 1: 99.170 Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 2: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 3: 99.142 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is hesitating around the 21-DMA

(99.184). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.258-271 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.296 - Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.295

*SUP 1: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 2: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 3: 100.270 - 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.259 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows as the contract gains traction above the

weekly bear channel top (100.260) off 2016 highs. A close above the bull channel

top sees bulls now focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340 although the

Bollinger band top remains a concern with potential to limit follow through.

Support layers are accumulating with bears now needing a close below 100.285 to

gain breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.259-270.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-23 Continues To Confirm Significance

*RES 4: 122-02 Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-06+ 55-DMA

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-23 High Mar 1

*PRICE: 120-16 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-11 Low Mar 15

*SUP 2: 120-07+ Low Mar 14

*SUP 3: 120-04+ 21-DMA

*SUP 4: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in pressure returning to the 120-23 resistance

and look for a close above to gain breathing room. A close above the 55-DMA is

then needed to shift initial focus to 122-02. The Bollinger band top (120-20+)

remains the key concern for bulls. Layers of support are building with bears now

needing a close below the 21-DMA to ease pressure on resistance layers and below

119-26+ to initially focus on 119-14.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.758-793 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 3: 2.883 - High Mar 13 

*RES 2: 2.857 - High Mar 14 

*RES 1: 2.835 - High Mar 15

*PRICE: 2.823 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.729 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 currently finding support ahead of this region. Bears

continue to look for a close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial

focus back to 2.696-729 where the 55-DMA is noted. Overall focus shifts to

2.609-648. The Bollinger base (2.803) is the key concern. Bulls need a close

above 2.883 to gain breathing room and above 2.925 to regain the upper hand.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3372.53-3419.01 Levels Key Today

*RES 4: 3477.83 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3446.64 High Mar 13 

*RES 1: 3419.01 High Mar 15

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3414.13

*SUP 1: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 2: 3337.39 Low Mar 7, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 3299.53 200-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in Thursday's bounce and now need a close above

3419.01 to gain breathing room and above 3446.62 to pressure the key 3476.21

resistance that capped the recovery from 2018 lows. Overall bulls need a close

above 3570.95 to confirm breaks of DMAs and target 2018 highs. Initial support

remains at 3372.53 with bears needing a close below to add weight to the case

for a test of the 2018 low & 200-WMA.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]