MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

20 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Above 158.39 Targets 159.27-58

*RES 4: 159.27 Monthly High Jan 8

*RES 3: 158.64 Daily Bull channel top

*RES 2: 158.39 High Jan 23

*RES 1: 158.30 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.13

*SUP 1: 157.99 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 157.67 Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 157.34 Low Mar 14

*SUP 4: 157.01 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of the 158.39 resistance is less than

ideal for bulls who need a close above this level to confirm focus on 159.27-58.

The Bollinger top (158.48) remains the key concern for bulls and limits follow

through. Bears now need a close below 157.67 to ease bullish pressure and below

156.88to confirm breaks of DMAs & the bull channel base off Feb 15 lows, hinting

at a move back to 154.62 and below 156.22 to confirm.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Band Top Capping

*RES 4: 131.012 100-DMA 

*RES 3: 130.980 High Jan 11 

*RES 2: 130.836 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 130.792 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.690

*SUP 1: 130.670 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*SUP 2: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*SUP 3: 130.380 Low Mar 13

*SUP 4: 130.210 Low Mar 9

*COMMENTARY: Immediate focus remains on the bull channel top and overall focus

on 130.980-131.012 where the 100-DMA is located. The Bollinger top remains the

key concern and currently limits follow through. In saying that, support

continues to emerge on dips. Bears now look for a close below 130.510 to ease

bullish pressure and below 130.210 to shift focus back to 129.840-130.039 where

the bull channel base off Feb lows is located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 111.855

*RES 4: 112.065 Monthly low Sept 2017 

*RES 3: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 

*RES 2: 111.945 Low Mar 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: 111.919 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.900

*SUP 1: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 2: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 3: 111.805 Low Mar 9 

*SUP 4: 111.797 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The closes above the 100-DMA (111.891) add to bullish confidence

but a close above 111.945 is needed to confirm focus on 112.050-065. Layers of

support emerge on dips. Bears need a close below 111.855 to gain breathing room

and below 111.805 to target a correction back to 111.715 although the 21

(111.797) and 55 (111.735) DMAs may support along the way. The Bollinger top is

the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Break Of 55-DMA Aggressively Reversed

*RES 4: 123.06 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.44 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.18 Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 122.12 High Mar 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.81

*SUP 1: 121.68 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: 121.14 Low Mar 19 

*SUP 3: 120.89 Low Mar 8 

*SUP 4: 120.48 Low Feb 27

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation resulted in a break of the 55 & 21 (121.20) DMAs

Monday only to be aggressively reversed for a relatively bullish close. Bears

now need a close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 120.89 to

hint at a move back to 119.29 with below 120.29 to confirm. Bulls continue to

look for a close above 122.12 to confirm focus on 122.44-123.06. The Bollinger

top remains the key concern for bulls.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150 & 99.220 Levels Still Key

*RES 4: 99.270 100-DMA

*RES 3: 99.254 55-DMA

*RES 2: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 1: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.180

*SUP 1: 99.160 Low Mar 19

*SUP 2: 99.150 High Feb 26 now support

*SUP 3: 99.143 Bollinger band base

*SUP 4: 99.110 2018 Low Feb 26

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from recent 2018 lows is hesitating around the 21-DMA

(99.181). Bulls continue to look for a close above 99.220 to confirm a break of

the 21-DMA and shift initial focus back to 99.254-270 where 55 & 100-DMAs are

situated. The 99.150 support remains key. Bears need a close below 99.150 to

reconfirm initial focus on 99.080-110 where 2018 lows are situated.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) Bears Need Close Below 100.285

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.274 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bullish confidence grows as the contract gains traction above the

weekly bear channel top (100.260) off 2016 highs. Closes above the bull channel

top see bulls now focused on layers of resistance 100.320-340 although the

Bollinger band top (100.305) remains a concern with potential to limit follow

through. Bears now need a close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below

the 21-DMA to pressure DMAs 100.261-264.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 120-02+

*RES 4: 121-02+ 55-DMA

*RES 3: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 2: 120-23  High Mar 1

*RES 1: 120-20  Bollinger band top

*PRICE: 120-09 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 120-02+ Low Mar 19

*SUP 2: 119-26+ Lows Mar 6 & 9

*SUP 3: 119-21  Repeated Daily lows Feb, Bollinger base

*SUP 4: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The 120-23/121-02+ resistance region where the 55-DMA is noted

remains key with the 120-23 level capping last week and reconfirming

significance. Bulls need a close above 120-23 to hint at a move to 122-02 with

above the 55-DMA to confirm. The Bollinger band top (120-20+) remains the key

concern for bulls. Bears need a close below 120-02+ to ease pressure on

resistance layers and below 119-26+ to initially focus on 119-14.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.883-2.957 Resistance Region Key

*RES 4: 2.932 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 2.925 - High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 2.892 - Hourly resistance Mar 12 

*RES 1: 2.883 - High Mar 13

*PRICE: 2.857 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 2.830 - Low Mar 19 

*SUP 2: 2.793 - Low Mar 2 

*SUP 3: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: The 2.758-793 support remains key and reconfirmed significance with

the correction from 2.914 finding support ahead of this region. Bears need a

close below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to 2.696

although the 55-DMA (2.745) may slow the move. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 2.883 to gain breathing room with a close above 2.957 2018 highs to

shift focus back to tests of 3.041 2014 highs.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Below 3372.53 Targets 2018 Low

*RES 4: 3478.97 Bollinger band top 

*RES 3: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 2: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 1: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3394.79

*SUP 1: 3384.20 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 2: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 

*SUP 3: 3337.39 Low Mar 7 

*SUP 4: 3306.66 2018 Low Feb 9

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalize on the recovery from last week's low

with pressure back on 3372.53-3384.20. Bears continue to look for a close below

this region to reconfirm focus on the 3300.72-3306.66 region where 2018 lows,

the 100 (3319.21) and 200 (3300.72) WMAs are noted. Bulls now need a close above

3448.63 to return focus to 3476.21-3492.99 where Feb highs, the 55-DMA and

Bollinger top are found.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]