MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.35-53 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 159.58 High Dec 27

*RES 1: 159.27 Monthly High Jan 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.00

*SUP 1: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 2: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*SUP 3: 158.12 Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*SUP 4: 157.67 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation came to an end with an aggressive rally and pop

above the bull channel top that sees immediate bullish focus on 159.27-58 where

Jan highs are noted. The Bollinger top is noted at 158.89 with potential to

limit follow through. Layers of support building add to bullish confidence.

Bears still need a close below 158.35 to ease bullish pressure and below 156.88

to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target 156.22.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) 130.760 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.300 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 131.210 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 131.060 High Mar 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.020

*SUP 1: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*SUP 3: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*SUP 4: 130.461 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation came to an end with a rally and pops above the

100-DMA (130.952) continuing. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish

confidence with focus having shifted to 131.210-450. Daily studies approaching

O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears need a close below 130.760 to ease

bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to 130.380-510 where 21 & 55-DMAs

are located.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 111.915

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 111.970 High Mar 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.960

*SUP 1: 111.935 Hourly support Mar 22 

*SUP 2: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112.050/065. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence

although daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears

look for a close below 111.915 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus

back to 111.805-855 where the 21-DMA (111.838) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Band Top Limiting Follow Through

*RES 4: 122.95 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.41 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.26 High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 122.18 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.82

*SUP 1: 121.44 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: 121.04 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21 

*SUP 4: 120.64 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to the 100-DMA following an aggressive rally

and bullish close Thursday with the Bollinger band top currently limiting follow

through. Layers of support left in the wake adds to bullish confidence. Bears

now look for a close below 121.44 to ease bullish pressure and return focus to

120.69-121.04 where the bull channel base (120.85) off Feb lows is located.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150-170 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.125

*SUP 1: 99.100 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 2: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*SUP 3: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 99.010 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from failures at the 99.200 level resulted in fresh

2018 & 10mth lows Thursday but the lack of follow through and bonce from ahead

of 99.010-080 is a concern for bears. In saying that, bulls continue to look for

a close above 99.150 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.170 to shift focus

back to 99.200-220. Above this region initially targets 55 & 100-DMAs

99.238-270.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) O/B Daily Studies, 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.264 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/B levels and hesitation at 100.300

is less than ideal for bulls who are focused on layers of resistance

100.320-340. Bulls now need a close above 100.320 to maintain bullish momentum.

Initial support remains at 100.290 but bears continue to look for a close below

100.285 to gain breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.264-265.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Focus On 55-DMA & 121-01+ Resistance

*RES 4: 122-09+ 100-DMA

*RES 3: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-27+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 120-18+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-12+ Hourly support Mar 22

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 4: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through and bounce from 119-14/21+ has resulted

in a break of the 120-23 resistance that repeatedly capped, with immediate focus

now on 120-27+/121-01+ where the 55-DMA is noted. Bulls need a close above

121-01+ to end bearish hopes and shift focus to 122-02/19+ where Feb highs, the

100-DMA and 100-WMA are found. Bears need a close below 120-12+ to gain

breathing room.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Below 2.758 Targets 2.585-648

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.852 - High Mar 23

*PRICE: 2.828 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: 2.775 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: 2.758 - Low Feb 7 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The lack of topside follow through has seen pressure return to

2.758-786 where the 55-DMA is noted. The Bollinger base (2.801) is the key

concern and currently limits follow through. Bears continue to look for a close

below 2.758 to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648. Bulls now need

a close above 2.852 to gain breathing room and above 2.889 to shift focus back

to 2.936-957.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Closes Below Key WMAs

*RES 4: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 3: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3348.19 Hourly resistance Mar 22 

*RES 1: 3324.45 Hourly resistance Mar 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3298.07

*SUP 1: 3279.46 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: 3264.84 Low Feb 10 2017 

*SUP 3: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2018 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The break below 3372.53 has now resulted in a weekly close below

100 (3318.24) & 200 (3300.24) DMAs and fresh 2018 & 13mth lows that sees

immediate focus on the 2017 low. Layers of resistance are accumulating and

adding to bearish confidence. Bulls continue to look for a close above 3372.53

to ease bearish pressure and above 3448.63 to target 3476.21-3479.95.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]