MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

27 March 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 158.35

*RES 4: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 159.58 High Dec 27

*RES 1: 159.27 Monthly High Jan 8

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 158.77

*SUP 1: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 2: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*SUP 3: 158.12 Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*SUP 4: 157.67 Low Mar 19

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies are now a concern for bulls as the contract

pauses around last week's 2mth highs. Bull currently focus on 159.27-58 where

Jan highs are noted. The Bollinger top is noted at 159.09 with potential to

limit follow through. Layers of support 156.88-158.35 remains key. Bears still

need a close below 158.35 to ease bullish pressure and below 156.88 to confirm

breaks of key supports and initially target 156.22.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) O/B Daily Studies A Concern

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.378 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 131.210 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 131.060 High Mar 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 130.930

*SUP 1: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 2: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*SUP 3: 130.510 Low Mar 19

*SUP 4: 130.499 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to gain traction above the 100-DMA (130.939) is less than

ideal for bulls when combined with O/B studies and the Bollinger top (131.048)

limiting follow through. In saying that, bulls currently focus on 131.210-450.

Bears continue to look for a close below 130.760 to ease bullish pressure and

shift initial focus back to 130.210-510 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located. Bulls

look for a close above 131.06 to reconfirm bullish momentum.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Bears Still Need Close Below 111.915

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 111.970 High Mar 22

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.950

*SUP 1: 111.930 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112.050/065. Layers of support accumulating adds to bullish confidence

although daily studies approaching O/B is less than ideal. In saying that, bears

look for a close below 111.915 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus

back to 111.805-855 where the 21-DMA (111.848) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 55-DMA Support Key Today

*RES 4: 123.01 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: 122.40 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 122.26 High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 122.21 Bollinger band top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 121.82

*SUP 1: 121.44 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 2: 121.04 Low Mar 22 

*SUP 3: 120.69 Low Mar 21, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 4: 120.43 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to challenge the 100-DMA with the contract

currently dipping back towards support emerging around the 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears

now look for a close below the 55-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below 120.29

to shift focus back to 119.29 Feb lows. While the 55-DMA supports bulls focus on

the close above the 100-DMA needed to pressure the daily bull channel top.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) 99.150-170 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 99.220 Repeated daily highs Feb

*RES 3: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 2: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 1: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.125

*SUP 1: 99.100 2018 Low Feb 26

*SUP 2: 99.080 High Mar 30 2012 now support

*SUP 3: 99.040 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 99.010 Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off from failures at the 99.200 level resulted in fresh

2018 & 10mth lows Thursday but the lack of follow through and bounce from ahead

of 99.010-080 is a concern for bears. In saying that, bulls continue to look for

a close above 99.150 to ease bearish pressure and above 99.170 to shift focus

back to 99.200-220. Above this region initially targets 55 & 100-DMAs

99.234-270.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) O/B Daily Studies, 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.300 - Repeated 2018 Highs Jan - Mar

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*SUP 4: 100.264 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily studies correcting from O/B levels and hesitation at 100.300

is less than ideal for bulls who are focused on layers of resistance

100.320-340. Bulls need a close above 100.320 to maintain bullish momentum.

Initial support remains at 100.290 but bears continue to look for a close below

100.285 to gain breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs 100.264-265.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) Below 21-DMA To Pressure 119-14/21+

*RES 4: 122-09+ 100-DMA

*RES 3: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 2: 121-01+ High Feb 7

*RES 1: 120-25+ 55-DMA

*PRICE: 120-12 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-07+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 3: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*SUP 4: 119-14  Monthly Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA confirms significance with the recovery from last week's

low capped around this level. Bulls need a close above 121-01+ to confirm a

break of the 55-DMA, ending bearish hopes and shifting focus to 122-02/19+ where

Feb highs, the 100-DMA and 100-WMA are found. Pressure back on support layers is

a concern for bulls with bears needing a close below the 21-DMA to shift focus

back to 119-14/21+.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Support Emerging Ahead Of 55-DMA

*RES 4: 2.957 - 2018 High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 1: 2.858 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: 2.854 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.815 - Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 2.786 - Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: 2.782 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 2.758 - Low Feb 7

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 2.758-786

support region where the 55-DMA is located with pressure now on the 21-DMA.

Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room and above

2.889 to shift focus back to 2.936-957. Bears continue to look for a close below

2.758 to end bullish hopes and initially target 2.585-648.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2017 Low

*RES 4: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 3: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance 

*RES 2: 3348.19 Hourly resistance Mar 22 

*RES 1: 3324.45 Hourly resistance Mar 23

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3278.72

*SUP 1: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2018 

*SUP 3: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8 

*SUP 4: 3178.88 Low Dec 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The break below 3372.53 has resulted in a weekly close below 100

(3320.75) & 200 (3300.41) DMAs and fresh 2018 & 13mth lows that sees immediate

focus on the 2017 low. Layers of resistance are accumulating and adding to

bearish confidence. Bulls now look for a close above 3348.19 to ease bearish

pressure and above 3448.63 to target 3476.21.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]