MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

5 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

BUND TECHS: (M18) Topside Hesitation Continues

*RES 4: 161.54 Weekly Bear channel top off Sept High

*RES 3: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 2: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.29

*SUP 1: 159.07 Low Apr 3

*SUP 2: 159.01 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 3: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation around 159.69 continues with daily studies looking to

correct from O/B levels. The 159.01 support remains key. Bears still need a

close below 159.01 to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to

layers of support 158.16-55 where 21 & 100-DMAs are noted. While 159.01 supports

bulls focus on layers of resistance 160.26-160.98 and a close above needed to

target 161.54-162.75 where 55 & 100-WMAs and the bear channel top are located.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Bears Still Need Close Below 131.060

*RES 4: 131.607 200-WMA 

*RES 3: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 2: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 1: 131.253 100-WMA (Cont)

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.170

*SUP 1: 131.100 Low Mar 28

*SUP 2: 131.060 High Mar 23 now support

*SUP 3: 130.860 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 4: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs lacked follow through above the 100-WMA Tuesday

with M18 looking a little offered and pressure back on 131.060. Bears still need

a close below 131.060 to ease bullish pressure and below the 21-DMA (130.721) to

shift initial focus to 130.210-510 where the 55-DMA (130.288) is located. Bulls

look for a close above 131.310 to confirm a break of the 100-WMA and focus on

131.450-767.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) 111.915-930 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 112.115 High Dec 18 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 112.065 Monthly Low Sept 21 now resistance (Cont) 

*RES 2: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 1: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.945

*SUP 1: 111.930 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 2: 111.915 High Mar 19 now support 

*SUP 3: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 4: 111.830 Low Mar 14

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from Thursday's gains with the close above

111.915 reconfirming bullish momentum and above 111.945 confirming initial focus

on 112.050/065.Topside hesitation remains a concern with daily studies

correcting from O/B. In saying that, bears still look for a close below 111.915

to ease bullish pressure and shift initial focus back to 111.855-893 where the

21-DMA (111.893) is located.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) Topside Hesitation, 122.26 Support Key

*RES 4: 124.11 Low Dec 21 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 2: 123.30 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 123.03 High Apr 4

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.72

*SUP 1: 122.26 High Mar 22 now support 

*SUP 2: 121.79 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.39 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: 121.04 Low Mar 22

*COMMENTARY: Bulls finally managed a close above the 100-DMA (122.36) last week

that added support to the bullish case for tests of the daily bull channel top

coming in around 123.30 today. Overall bulls now need a close above 124.11 to

target 125.60-126.07 where 55 & 100-WMAs are situated. Bears continue to look

for a close below 122.26 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back

to 21 & 55-DMAs.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Focus Remains On 98.930-990

*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 99.120 Low Mar 26 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.085

*SUP 1: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 2: 99.010 Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 3: 98.990 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*SUP 4: 98.930 Monthly Low April 2016

*COMMENTARY: Repeated fresh 2018 & nearly 2yr lows leave the contract looking a

little heavy and bears currently focused on 98.930 April 2016 monthly lows.

Initial resistance is currently noted at 99.120 with bulls needing a close above

to gain breathing room. A close above 99.170 remains needed to shift focus back

to 99.200-220 where the 55-DMA (99.213) is noted.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) O/B Daily Studies Correcting, 100.285 Support Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.295 - Repeated daily lows Mar

*SUP 2: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 3: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 4: 100.275 - High Mar 7 now support

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs has taken its toll with the

contract testing initial support. In saying that, bears continue to look for a

close below 100.285 to gain breathing room and below 100.275 to pressure DMAs

100.266-270 where 55 & 100-DMAs are located. Bulls continue to look for a close

above 100.305 to reconfirm bullish momentum and initially target 100.320-340.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-11 & 55-DMA Key Supports

*RES 4: 122-01  100-DMA

*RES 3: 121-12  High Apr 3

*RES 2: 121-05  High Apr 4

*RES 1: 120-30+ Hourly resistance Apr 4

*PRICE: 120-21+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-19+ 55-DMA

*SUP 2: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*SUP 3: 120-03  Low Mar 22

*SUP 4: 119-21+ Repeated Daily lows Feb

*COMMENTARY: A lack of follow through on the break of 121-09 sees pressure on

the 55-DMA as daily studies look to correct from O/B levels. Bears still need a

close below the 55-DMA to gain breathing room and below 120-11 to confirm a

break of the 21-DMA (120-15+) & shift focus back to 119-14/21+. While the 55-DMA

supports bulls remain focused on 122-02/19+ where key DMA and WMAs are situated.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.815 Resistance Key

*RES 4: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 3: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 2: 2.830 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: 2.815 - Low Mar 26

*PRICE: 2.812 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.772 - Hourly resistance Apr 4 now support 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: Having gained traction below the 55-DMA the bounce Tuesday was less

than ideal as daily studies approach O/S levels and sees the yield flirting with

the 55-DMA (2.807). Bulls look for a close above 2.815 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and gain breathing room with above 2.859 to shift focus higher. Bears now

need a close below 2.772 to gain breathing room and retain focus on 2.585-648

where the 100-DMA is noted.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3383.17 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 3448.63 High Mar 16 

*RES 3: 3424.31 Hourly resistance Mar 19 

*RES 2: 3383.17 Low Mar 20 now resistance 

*RES 1: 3372.53 Hourly support Mar 7 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3340.35

*SUP 1: 3300.81 Low Apr 4 

*SUP 2: 3261.86 2018 Low Mar 26 

*SUP 3: 3252.29 High Feb 8 2017 now support 

*SUP 4: 3214.31 2017 Low Feb 8

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the bear

channel top off 2018 highs coming in around 3372.19 today. Bulls need a close

above 3383.17 to confirm a break and to shift focus to 3448.63-3476.21 where the

55-DMA and Feb highs are found. While 3383.17 caps bears remain focused on 2017

lows with a close below 3261.86 needed to add weight to the case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]