MNI European Morning FI Technical Analysis

11 April 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Please click on this link to access MNI's daily European FI Technical Analysis

Pdf - http://tinyurl.com/nhjogts

     BUND TECHS: (M18) 158.89 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 160.98 Monthly High Dec 11

*RES 3: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance

*RES 2: 160.13 Bollinger band top

*RES 1: 159.69 High Mar 28

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.15

*SUP 1: 158.89 Low Apr 5

*SUP 2: 158.53 Hourly resistance Mar 22 now support

*SUP 3: 158.35 High Mar 16 now support

*SUP 4: 158.12 Hourly resistance Mar 20 now support

*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading 158.89-159.69 continues with daily studies

correcting from O/B. Bulls now look for a close above 159.69 to kick start

topside momentum and above 160.26 to initially target 160.98 Dec highs. Bears

still need a close below 158.89 to pressure the key 158.12-53 support region

where the bull channel base, and 100-DMA are situated. Overall below the 55-DMA

(157.20) hints at a move back to 2018 lows.

     BOBL TECHS: (M18) Initial Focus Now On 130.760

*RES 4: 131.450 High Jan 23 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 131.310 High Apr 3 

*RES 2: 131.229 100-WMA (Cont) 

*RES 1: 131.100 Low Apr 6 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 131.010

*SUP 1: 130.879 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 130.834 100-DMA

*SUP 3: 130.811 55-WMA

*SUP 4: 130.760 High Mar 19 now support

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 3mth highs lacked follow through above the 100-WMA last

Tuesday with the topside failures that followed resulting in a break lower and

bears now focused on 130.760. Bears need a close below 130.760 to confirm breaks

of key MAs and to shift focus to 130.210-510. Bulls now need a close above

131.100 to ease bearish pressure and above 131.310 to kick start bullish

momentum and initially target 131.450.

     SCHATZ TECHS: (M18) Above 111.905 To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: 112.050 2018 High Mar 5 (Cont) 

*RES 3: 111.990 Monthly High Mar 28 

*RES 2: 111.945 Highs Apr 5 & 6 

*RES 1: 111.905 Low Apr 9 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 111.880

*SUP 1: 111.861 100-DMA 

*SUP 2: 111.855 Low Mar 15 

*SUP 3: 111.830 Low Mar 14 

*SUP 4: 111.823 Bollinger band base

*COMMENTARY: Recent pressure on the 21-DMA has finally resulted in a close below

with pressure now on layers of support 111.787-861 where 55 (111.787) & 100-DMAs

are situated. A close below the 55-DMA is needed to hint at a move back to

111.590 Jan lows. Bulls now look for a close above 111.905 to gain breathing

room and above 111.945 to shift initial focus back to 111.990.

     GILT TECHS: (M18) 21-DMA & 122.59 Levels Key

*RES 4: 123.57 Low Dec 1 now resistance 

*RES 3: 123.54 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: 123.03 High Apr 4 

*RES 1: 122.59 Low Apr 4 now resistance

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 122.25

*SUP 1: 122.10 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 121.99 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: 121.43 Daily Bull channel base off Feb low 

*SUP 4: 121.35 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the daily bull channel top has taken its toll

with the contract flirting with the 100-DMA (122.33). The 21-DMA remains key

support this week with bears needing a close below to confirm focus on

120.69-121.43 where the 55-DMA and daily bull channel base are located. While

the 21-DMA supports bulls remain focused on the channel top with a close above

122.59 needed to gain breathing room.

     SHORT-STERLING TECHS: (M18) Bulls Need Close Above 99.150

*RES 4: 99.200 Repeated daily highs Mar

*RES 3: 99.170 High Mar 21

*RES 2: 99.150 Alternating daily support/resistance

*RES 1: 99.135 21-DMA

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 99.120

*SUP 1: 99.075 2018 Low Apr 4

*SUP 2: 99.060 Monthly Low June 23 2016

*SUP 3: 99.003 Weekly Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 98.990 Monthly Low May 31 2016

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the correction from 2018 lows with initial

focus now on 99.135-150 where the 21-DMA is located. Bulls look for a close

above 99.150 to shift focus back to 99.196-220 where the 55-DMA (99.196) is

noted. Bears now need a close below 99.060 to reconfirm the bearish bias and

maintain focus on 98.930 April 2016 monthly lows.

     EURIBOR TECHS: (Z18) 100.285 Support Remains Key

*RES 4: 100.340 - High Oct 10 2016 

*RES 3: 100.325 - High Oct 19 2016, High Dec 15 

*RES 2: 100.320 - Repeated Daily highs Dec 

*RES 1: 100.305 - 2018 High Mar 27 & 28, Apr 6 & 9

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 100.300

*SUP 1: 100.290 - Highs Mar 13 & 14 now support

*SUP 2: 100.285 - Low Mar 15

*SUP 3: 100.274 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 100.267 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation around 2018 highs has taken its toll with the

contract dipping below the 21-DMA (100.296) for the first time since early Mar.

bears continue to look for a close below 100.285 to confirm an easing of bullish

pressure. 55 & 100-DMAs are noted 100.267-274 with a close below the 100-DMA

still needed to end bearish hopes and to shift initial focus back to 100.250.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (M18) 120-11 & 121-12 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: 122-02  Monthly High Feb 6

*RES 3: 121-29+ 100-DMA

*RES 2: 121-12  High Apr 2

*RES 1: 121-05  High Apr 4

*PRICE: 120-25+ @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 120-20+ 21-DMA

*SUP 2: 120-17+ 55-DMA

*SUP 3: 120-16+ Low Apr 5

*SUP 4: 120-11  Low Mar 26 & 27

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort from support emerging around the 21-DMA last

week and providing the base for a bounce Friday. The 120-11 support remains key

this week. Bears still need a close below 120-11 to confirm a break of DMAs &

shift focus back to 119-14/21+. The 121-12 resistance remains key also. Bulls

need a close above this level to kick start topside momentum and initially

target 121-31+/122-02.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.859 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 2.936 - High Feb 21 

*RES 3: 2.889 - High Mar 22 

*RES 2: 2.859 - High Mar 27 

*RES 1: 2.838 - High Apr 5

*PRICE: 2.793 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 2.768 - Low Apr 6 

*SUP 2: 2.748 - Low Apr 4 

*SUP 3: 2.717 - Low Apr 2 

*SUP 4: 2.648 - Monthly Low Feb 6

*COMMENTARY: The yield continues to trade below 21 (2.813) & 55 (2.819) DMAs,

although follow through has been lacking, with bears now needing a close below

2.768 to add weight to the case for a test of 2.609-648 where the 100-DMA

(2.646) is found. The 2.859 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above to shift initial focus to tests of 2018 highs. Daily studies are now back

at neutral levels.

     EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3383.17-3399.97 Support Region Key

*RES 4: 3511.83 200-DMA 

*RES 3: 3497.91 100-DMA 

*RES 2: 3476.21 High Feb 27 

*RES 1: 3448.63 High Mar 16

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3438.78

*SUP 1: 3425.82 Low Apr 10 

*SUP 2: 3399.97 Low Apr 6 

*SUP 3: 3383.17 Alternating daily support/resistance 

*SUP 4: 3300.81 Low Apr 4

*COMMENTARY: Pressure has returned to 3448.63 following the marginal close above

the 55-DMA (3434.38). Bulls continue to look for a close above 3448.63 to

confirm traction above the 55-DMA and above 3523.28 to confirm breaks of 100 &

200-DMAs & shift focus to 2018 highs. Initial support is noted at 3425.82 but

bears now need a close below 3399.97 to ease bullish pressure and below 3383.17

to shift focus back to 2018 lows.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]